England
Argentina
Semifinal · Wednesday 15 July, 20:00 BST · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
England and Argentina renew one of football's oldest rivalries with a place in Sunday's final at stake, forty years on from Diego Maradona's Hand of God and Goal of the Century in the 1986 quarterfinal. England needed extra time to see off Norway in Miami, Jude Bellingham scoring both goals, while Argentina survived a battle of their own, Julian Alvarez's extra-time strike eventually seeing off ten-man Switzerland after Dan Ndoye had cancelled out Alexis Mac Allister's opener. There's history on the line for the managers too: win this and Thomas Tuchel becomes only the fourth man to reach a World Cup final with a foreign nation, and the first since Ernst Happel did it with the Netherlands back in 1978, while Lionel Scaloni could become only the second Argentina boss, after Carlos Bilardo, to reach two finals. The winner meets Spain, who saw off France in Tuesday's other semifinal, in Sunday's final.
England — the Three Lions
The predicted XI has Jordan Pickford in goal behind a back four of Nico O'Reilly, Marc Guehi, John Stones and Ezri Konsa, with Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson holding, and Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka in behind Harry Kane in a 4-2-3-1. It's the same XI that started the extra-time win over Norway with one change: Stones comes in for Djed Spence, with Reece James and the now-available-again Jarell Quansah still waiting for their chance off the bench. Stones carries the lowest confidence rating of the group after looking uncomfortable late on against Norway, but the word from inside the camp is that it was nothing more than cramp and he trained fully this week.
Kane and Bellingham both sit on six goals, the first time in World Cup history two players from the same country have reached that mark in the same tournament, and Kane's 121st cap would be the most ever by an England outfield player, second only to Peter Shilton's overall goalkeeping record. Gordon attempted ten dribbles against Norway, the most by an England player in a World Cup match since Darius Vassell back in 2002, and Saka's assist numbers this summer are the best of any Three Lions player at a single tournament since 1966. England have lost just twice in fourteen meetings with Argentina, and haven't been beaten in normal time in any of their last five, the solitary blip being the penalty shootout exit at France '98.
Argentina — La Albiceleste
The predicted XI has Emiliano Martinez in goal behind a back four of Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez and Nicolas Tagliafico, with Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul across a flat midfield four, and Lionel Messi partnering Julian Alvarez up front in a 4-4-2. It's an unchanged XI from the Switzerland win, and the doubt hanging over the last preview has settled itself: it's Alvarez starting alongside Messi again rather than Lautaro Martinez, who has to make do with a place on the bench.
Argentina have scored seventeen goals this tournament, the most of any side left in the competition and just one short of the eighteen they managed at the very first World Cup back in 1930. Messi has eight of them, level with Mbappe at the top of the Golden Boot race, and this will be Argentina's sixth World Cup semifinal, having progressed from every single one of the previous five. Scaloni has now led this squad to six straight wins at this tournament, their longest winning run at a single World Cup in the nation's history, and victory here puts him one game from joining Bilardo as the only Argentina manager to reach two finals.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Lionel Messi vs Declan Rice. Everything Argentina do funnels through the pockets of space between England's lines, and it's Rice's job, more than anyone's, to make sure Messi never gets time on the ball there. Give him a yard and he still picks the pass or the shot that decides a game on his own; crowd him early and Argentina's attack can go quiet for long spells, as Switzerland found out right up until their sending-off changed everything. How well Rice reads that moment could be the difference between a final and an early flight home.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives England a 38.2% chance of winning in 90 minutes, the largest single outcome but only just, with Argentina on 32.0% and a draw on 29.7%, both the tightest split and the highest draw probability of any match previewed this tournament. Argentina have scored at least three goals in each of their last four matches, so keeping them out entirely feels unlikely, but England's set-piece threat, with Rice's delivery and both Kane and Stones dangerous in the air, gives them a route past a defense that's been breached in every knockout game so far. Kane should add to his tally regardless, and with Bellingham in the kind of form that's produced a brace in each of his last two outings, England's greater squad depth this deep into the tournament should just about see them through, though Messi finding a way to add to Argentina's own tally feels close to guaranteed.
England 3-2 Argentina — Bellingham, Kane (2); Messi, Alvarez
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