Sweden

vs

Tunisia

Group F concludes its opening fixtures in the early hours at the Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, Monterrey, as Sweden and Tunisia meet in what could prove the most critical game in determining who accompanies the Netherlands and Japan in the knockout stage. Both sides arrive carrying the baggage of difficult recent form. Both arrive with a point to prove. And both — for very different reasons — should probably not be here at all.

Sweden — Blågult

Graham Potter's side line up in a 3-5-2, with Nordfeldt in goal behind a back three of Lagerbielke, Hien and Lindelof. The wing-backs are Gudmundsson on the left — a doubt after battling a virus in the build-up, with Daniel Svensson on standby if he cannot go — and Bernhardsson on the right. The midfield three of Karlström, Nygren and Ayari provides the industry and structure in the middle of the pitch.

Up front, the partnership of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres is one of the most feared striking combinations at this entire World Cup. Isak — who has been one of the Premier League's most lethal forwards since joining Newcastle — partners with Gyökeres, who ended the club season at Arsenal with 32 goals across all competitions and arrived at this tournament having already delivered the moments that got Sweden here in the first place. He scored a hat-trick against Ukraine in the Nations League semi-final before winning the qualifying playoff final against Poland with a late goal that sent Sweden — against all logic — to North America. Separately, either is capable of winning a match. Together, they are as dangerous a front two as any side in this group.

The context of Sweden's qualification is genuinely remarkable. They became the first nation in history to reach a World Cup after finishing last in their qualifying group without a single win. They lost to Kosovo, failed to beat Slovenia, and were eliminated by Switzerland in Group B. The Nations League was their only lifeline — and they clung to it desperately. Potter was handed a contract extension even before winning his first game. The pressure on this squad to finally perform at a major tournament is immense.

The defensive concern is real, however. Sweden have conceded in 11 consecutive fixtures — including pre-tournament losses to Norway (3-1) and a draw with Greece (2-2). Tunisia will have noted that carefully.

Tunisia — Eagles of Carthage

Sabri Lamouchi sets up in a mirror 3-5-2, with Chamakh in goal behind a back three of Arous, Talbi and Rekik. The wing-backs are Abdi and Valery, with the midfield three of Khedira, Mejbri and Skhiri providing the competitive core of this side. Hannibal Mejbri — the former Manchester United academy product now at Marseille — is Tunisia's most creative player and carries a significant portion of their attacking threat through the middle. Aïssa Laïdouni-style industry from Skhiri alongside him gives the midfield balance.

Up front, Achouri and Chaouat partner in attack. Tunisia's qualification was outstanding — nine wins from ten games in CAF, 13 clean sheets in their 19-match unbeaten run, and they did not concede a single goal throughout the entire qualifying campaign. The platform is excellent. The problem is what happens at the other end — they have failed to score in three consecutive matches heading into this fixture and have netted just once in four, including a 5-0 thrashing by Belgium just eight days before the tournament began. That is an alarming number to carry into a World Cup opener.

Tunisia's World Cup record in the finals makes grim reading — six group stage exits from six appearances, just three wins from 18 matches. For all the promise of their qualification, they have never been able to translate it onto the biggest stage. This squad, and this fixture, represents their best opportunity in years to finally break that pattern.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Hannibal Mejbri vs the Sweden midfield. Mejbri is Tunisia's most dangerous creative outlet — quick, direct and capable of driving forward from central positions in a way that can unlock compact defensive structures. If he can get on the ball in space and run at Sweden's back three, Tunisia have a genuine chance of causing problems. Karlström and Nygren in the Sweden midfield will be tasked with denying him exactly that, knowing that if they lose that battle, their own shaky defensive record becomes dangerously exposed.

Prediction

Both sides are flawed. Sweden can be breached — eleven consecutive games without a clean sheet makes that abundantly clear. Tunisia cannot score — three blank games in a row before a tournament opener is a deeply worrying sign. Those two weaknesses cancel each other out to some extent, but Sweden carry considerably more attacking quality up front. Isak and Gyökeres together are simply too good for a Tunisia side that has struggled to find the net against anyone of note.

Expect Gyökeres to continue his heroics and fire Sweden to a win that — given the circus of their qualification — they thoroughly deserve.

Sweden 2–0 Tunisia — Gyökeres, Isak

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Ivory Coast

vs

Ecuador

The second fixture in Group E at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia is arguably the most important match of the round — with Germany widely expected to top the group, this clash between Ivory Coast and Ecuador could effectively determine who joins them in the knockout stage. Les Éléphants return to the World Cup for the first time in twelve years, having missed both Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022, while Ecuador arrive on an extraordinary 19-match unbeaten run built on defensive resilience and organisation. Whoever wins here takes a huge step toward the round of sixteen. A draw, and both sides leave with much to do.

Ivory Coast — Les Éléphants

Emerse Faé lines up in a 4-3-3, with Fofana in goal behind a back four of Konan, Agbadou, Singo and Désiré Doué. The significant concern in defence is Evan Ndicka, who has been absent since suffering a thigh injury in the Rome derby and is expected to miss the opener — a real blow given he is Ivory Coast's most reliable and commanding centre-back. Agbadou steps up in his absence.

The midfield three of Fofana, Sangaré and Kessié is the engine of this side — Sangaré provides the defensive cover and physical presence from the base, while Kessié brings box-to-box energy and the ability to arrive late into dangerous positions. Up front, the attacking trio of Diomandé, Guessand and Diallo gives Ivory Coast pace, directness and genuine creativity. Diomandé in particular — a powerful, aggressive striker — has been one of the revelations of African football over the past two seasons and will carry the primary goalscoring responsibility.

Ivory Coast's return to the World Cup follows a four-match winning streak that included a stunning friendly win over France. In each of their previous three World Cup appearances, they managed to win a game but still went out at the group stage — a pattern Faé will be desperate to break. The expanded 48-team format and the possibility of progressing as one of the best third-placed teams gives this generation a genuine pathway that previous Ivorian squads never had.

Ecuador — La Tri

Sebastián Beccacece deploys a compact 4-4-2, with Hernán Galíndez — one of the most experienced goalkeepers at this tournament at 38 — in goal behind a back four of Franco, Pacho, Hincapié and Ordonez. Pacho and Hincapié are both established top-level defenders — Pacho at PSG, Hincapié at Bayer Leverkusen — and form one of the most technically accomplished centre-back partnerships in this group stage.

The midfield four of Minda, Vite, Caicedo and Plata is anchored by Moisés Caicedo, Chelsea's £115m midfielder and the heartbeat of this Ecuador side. His ability to win the ball, drive forward and cover enormous ground makes him the single most important player on the pitch. Kendry Páez — just 18 years old and one of the most talked-about young midfielders in world football — is a major threat from the bench if needed. Up front, Enner Valencia partners Yeboah — Valencia needing just three more goals to become Ecuador's all-time leading scorer, a milestone he will be hunting throughout this tournament.

Ecuador's 19-match unbeaten run since losing to Brazil in Beccacece's first game in charge is built on defensive solidity — 13 clean sheets in that period — but the concern is a lack of cutting edge, averaging just a goal per game and winning only eight of those 19 matches. If they cannot find a way to be more decisive in front of goal, draws will pile up when wins are needed.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Moisés Caicedo vs Franck Kessié. The midfield battle could define the entire game. Caicedo is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world and will be tasked with breaking up Ivory Coast's attempts to build from deep and supplying their front three. Kessié is equally combative and arrives late from midfield to threaten — if he can get beyond Caicedo and into the spaces behind Ecuador's midfield line, Ivory Coast have the players around him to hurt La Tri on the counter. Whoever controls the centre controls this match.

Prediction

This is a genuine 50-50 fixture on paper. Ecuador's defensive record is outstanding and Caicedo gives them a platform few teams in this tournament can match in central midfield. But Ivory Coast carry more attacking quality and arrive in far better recent form, and the absence of Ndicka, while significant, may not derail a side that has shown they can beat top opposition in warm-up. Both sides will be cautious and neither will want to concede first — but Ivory Coast's front three has the quality to find a moment.

Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador — Diomandé

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Netherlands

vs

Japan

Group F gets underway at AT&T Stadium in Dallas with one of the most intriguing opener fixtures of this entire World Cup, as the Netherlands take on a Japan side that has quietly become one of the most dangerous teams in this tournament. Ronald Koeman brings an Oranje squad riddled with absences to face a Samurai Blue side who have beaten Brazil and England in warm-up and arrive on a six-match winning run. The supercomputer gives the Dutch a 49.2% win probability — almost a coin flip — and that feels about right for a fixture that could genuinely go either way.

Netherlands — Oranje

Koeman lines up in a 4-2-3-1 that has become the Dutch template, with Bart Verbruggen starting despite suffering a hip injury in their final warm-up match — though he remains a doubt and Leverkusen's Mark Flekken is ready to step in if needed. Behind him, Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk and Van de Ven form the back four. Van Dijk captains the side and remains one of the most imposing centre-backs in world football at 34 — his leadership and aerial dominance will be central to whatever the Dutch achieve this summer.

The double pivot of Frenkie de Jong and Ryan Gravenberch sits at the heart of everything, with De Jong providing the creative link between defence and attack and Gravenberch bringing the physical presence and box-to-box energy that has made him one of Liverpool's most important players. In the advanced positions, Cody Gakpo operates on the left, Tijjani Reijnders in the central role and Summerville on the right, with Donyell Malen leading the line — his red-hot form for Roma this season earning him the nod ahead of all-time top scorer Memphis Depay, who drops to the bench.

The absence list is significant. Jurrien Timber has withdrawn through injury. Matthijs de Ligt is out. Xavi Simons — one of Europe's most exciting creative players — is sidelined. And Jerdy Schouten is also absent. The depth has been tested before a ball has been kicked. The Netherlands are also unbeaten in their last 16 World Cup group games stretching back to 1994, a remarkable record they will be determined to protect. But this is far from the dominant force that squad depth would once have suggested.

Japan — The Samurai Blue

Hajime Moriyasu sets up in a 3-4-2-1 — the system that has become Japan's calling card — with Suzuki in goal behind a back three of Hiroki Ito, Taniguchi and Watanabe. The wing-backs are Doan on the right and Nakamura on the left, with Kamada and Sano in the central midfield positions. The two advanced roles behind Ueda go to Junya Ito and the supremely gifted Takefusa Kubo.

Japan's most notable absence is captain Wataru Endo, who announced his retirement from international football after failing to recover from a foot injury in a devastating blow for Moriyasu's midfield. The equally important Kaoru Mitoma — Japan's most dangerous wide player and one of the Premier League's best — is also missing. Despite those losses, Japan arrive in remarkable form. Six consecutive friendly wins, including stunning victories over both Brazil and England, have given this squad a confidence and belief that goes well beyond their FIFA ranking of 18th.

Their record at Qatar 2022 gives context to the threat: they beat Germany and Spain in the group stage, only to exit to Croatia on penalties in the last 16. The identity is now clearly defined — compact, intense pressing, rapid transitions, technically excellent individual players — and Kubo in particular, pulling the strings from behind Ueda, is capable of deciding any match at this level on his own.

Japan have never beaten the Netherlands in their history. But they have never arrived at a tournament in quite this shape, and Oranje have never faced them in such a depleted state.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Takefusa Kubo vs Frenkie de Jong. Kubo is at his most dangerous receiving the ball in central pockets on the half-turn — exactly the spaces De Jong is responsible for protecting. If Kubo can exploit the gap between Netherlands' midfield and defence, he can pick passes that send Japan's forwards in behind Van Hecke and Van de Ven before they can recover. De Jong will need to be disciplined and alert to that threat throughout, while also being the player Koeman relies upon to drive possession forward. It is a battle that will define the midfield contest and, in all likelihood, the match.

Prediction

This is genuinely too close to call. The Netherlands have the superior individual talent on paper — Van Dijk, De Jong, Gakpo and Reijnders are all top-level players — but the injury list has thinned them considerably, and Japan's momentum, organisation and quality in transition makes them a genuine danger. Koeman will know his side cannot afford a slow start against a team that presses with this intensity.

Japan's record against elite European opposition at recent World Cups should not be dismissed. But the Dutch unbeaten group run stretching back over 30 years carries its own weight. A compelling game — and perhaps the most genuinely uncertain fixture of the opening round.

Netherlands 2–2 Japan — Gakpo, Reijnders — Kubo, Ueda

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Germany

vs

Curaçao

There are David vs Goliath moments at every World Cup, but few have ever been quite this stark on paper. Four-time world champions Germany open their Group E campaign in Houston against Curaçao — a Caribbean island nation with a population of fewer than 160,000 people, making them the smallest nation by both population and area ever to qualify for the World Cup finals. For Julian Nagelsmann's side, this represents an opportunity to send a statement after back-to-back group stage eliminations in 2018 and 2022. For Dick Advocaat's Blue Wave, simply being here is the achievement of a lifetime. That said, Curaçao are not here just to make up the numbers — and in 78-year-old Advocaat, they have a coach who has spent a career making sure his teams are never a pushover.

Germany — Die Mannschaft

Nagelsmann deploys a 4-2-3-1, with the talismanic Manuel Neuer returning between the sticks at the age of 40, having overcome the calf problem that cast doubt over his involvement. Behind him, Brown, Schlotterbeck, Tah and Kimmich form the back four — Kimmich operating at right back rather than his preferred midfield role, continuing the positional compromise that has defined much of Germany's recent setup. The double pivot of Pavlovic and Nmecha provides the platform from which everything is built.

The real excitement lies in the front four. Florian Wirtz starts on the left, Leroy Sané on the right, and the supremely gifted Jamal Musiala drifts through the centre of the pitch — the most technically complete of the three and arguably Germany's most important player. Up front, Kai Havertz leads the line following a remarkable individual season, having scored in the Champions League final for Arsenal. His 22 international goals make him Germany's most experienced striker option, and in a game of this nature, his combination of hold-up play, movement and aerial presence should be decisive.

Germany arrive in blistering form — nine wins from nine across all competitions, including victories in all four pre-tournament friendlies against Switzerland, Ghana, Finland and the USA. After the humiliation of consecutive group stage exits, the pressure to deliver — and to do so convincingly — is enormous. Anything other than a comfortable win here would be a significant story in itself.

Curaçao — The Blue Wave

Advocaat sets up in a cautious 5-3-2, with Eloy Room in goal behind a back five of Floranus, Obispo, Bazoer, Gaari and Sambo. The shape is clearly designed to be compact and hard to break down — three central defenders and two wing-backs give Curaçao extra bodies behind the ball, and Advocaat will be well aware that their best hope lies in frustrating Germany for as long as possible and staying in the game.

The midfield three of Leandro Bacuna, Comenencia and Juninho Bacuna features the two brothers at the heart of everything. Leandro — the former Aston Villa midfielder — captains the side and brings genuine top-level experience to a squad that will need calm heads in what promises to be an intense occasion. In attack, Tahith Chong is the standout name — the former Manchester United youngster has scored three times in his first six international appearances and carries real pace and directness — while Locadia provides the physical presence up front alongside him.

The story of Curaçao's qualification is one of the tournament's great underdog tales. They topped their CONCACAF qualifying group last November, beating both Haiti and the Dominican Republic along the way. They lost 4-1 to Scotland in a pre-tournament friendly, but bounced back immediately with a 4-0 win over Aruba, which gives at least some indication that confidence has not been dented. They sit 82nd in the FIFA rankings — 56 places below Germany. But the Bacuna brothers have played at the top level, Room is experienced, and Advocaat has never coached a team that rolls over quietly.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Jamal Musiala vs the Curaçao back five. Musiala is at his best when he has space to receive the ball on the half-turn and drive at defenders — exactly the kind of movement a compact low block is designed to prevent. The question is whether Curaçao's five defenders and three midfielders can maintain their shape and discipline for long enough to make this uncomfortable, or whether Musiala's ability to find pockets in even the tightest defensive structures inevitably tells. If Germany find the first goal quickly, Curaçao may be forced to open up — and that would play perfectly into Germany's hands.

Prediction

There is no realistic pathway to a Curaçao win here — the gap in quality is simply too wide. But Advocaat will have them organised, disciplined and competitive for the opening period, and if Germany are wasteful in front of goal, this could remain closer than expected for longer than anyone anticipates. Germany's firepower will ultimately prove too much, however, and with Havertz, Musiala and Wirtz all threatening, a convincing win looks inevitable.

The only real question is the margin. After the embarrassment of 2018 and 2022, Nagelsmann's side will want to make a statement.

Germany 4–0 Curaçao — Havertz, Musiala, Wirtz, Sané

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Australia

vs

Turkey

Group D has its second fixture as Australia take on Turkey at BC Place in Vancouver, a match that could effectively determine who finishes second behind the co-host USA. While the Socceroos have become fixtures at the World Cup — this is their sixth consecutive appearance — Turkey arrive back on the global stage for the first time since 2002, when they finished third. Vincenzo Montella's side carry real quality, an eight-game unbeaten run and a significant injury doubt list. Tony Popovic's Socceroos are organised, hard to break down and quietly confident they can cause an upset. This is far from a foregone conclusion.

Australia — The Socceroos

Popovic sets up in a 3-4-2-1, with Mathew Ryan in goal behind a back three of Burgess, Souttar and Circati. The wing-back roles go to Jordan Bos on the left and Jacob Italiano on the right — both tasked with the exhausting dual role of providing width in attack while covering vast ground defensively. In the middle, Jackson Irvine and Riley O'Neill provide the engine, while Cristian Volpato and Nestory Irankunda operate in the advanced positions behind lone striker Kusini Yengi.

It is a more adventurous setup than the stereotypically defensive Australia of previous tournaments. Volpato and Irankunda are creative, technically gifted players built to keep the ball and find gaps rather than simply absorb pressure. Yengi leads the line with energy and physicality — he has scored twice in ten caps — and will be tasked with holding play up and bringing those two into the game. Australia's plan is clear: stay compact, be hard to break down in the first hour, and carry a genuine threat on the counter.

The Socceroos go into this fixture aware of their own recent opening-match record, having lost four of their last five World Cup openers. But this squad has arguably more quality than any in recent memory, and a draw or win here would transform their prospects in what is a navigable group.

Turkey — The Crescent-Stars

Montella lines up in a 4-2-3-1, with Uğurcan Çakır between the sticks behind a back four of Kadıoğlu, Bardakçı, Demiral and Çelik. The double pivot of captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Yüksek is the engine of this team — Çalhanoğlu sets the tempo, picks passes nobody else can see and takes dead balls with genuine menace. Alongside him, Yüksek provides the defensive coverage that allows Çalhanoğlu the freedom to influence the game from deep.

In the three attacking positions behind the striker, Turkey carry extraordinary quality. Arda Güler — 21 years old and already one of the most technically gifted players at this tournament — drifts into central pockets and is at his most dangerous when he receives the ball on the half-turn between the lines. Orkun Kökcü operates alongside him, while Kenan Yıldız provides the threat from the left. Up front, Baris Yılmaz leads the line.

The significant concern for Turkey is fitness. Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız and Kadıoğlu are all listed as game-time decisions with various knocks — a remarkable number of injury doubts concentrated in one XI. All three are projected to start, but if any are missing or operating below full capacity, Turkey's quality drops considerably. Güler in particular needs Çalhanoğlu's service and Yıldız's movement to function at his best — lose either and Turkey become a more predictable side.

Turkey arrive in outstanding form — seven wins from their last eight matches, including pre-tournament victories over North Macedonia (4-0) and Venezuela (2-1). Their only previous appearances at the World Cup came in 1954 and 2002, the latter producing a remarkable third-place finish. The motivation to write another chapter in that history is fierce.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Arda Güler vs Australia's midfield screen. Güler is the most technically gifted player on this pitch and the one Australia's game plan is built around nullifying. Irvine and O'Neill must stay compact and deny him the space between the lines — if they can force him wide or into areas where he cannot turn, Australia keep Turkey's attack blunt. If Güler finds those pockets and gets on the ball facing forward, he can unlock any defence at this level with a single pass. Australia's entire structure is designed with this problem in mind.

Prediction

Turkey are the better team and should win — but fitness is the wildcard that makes this genuinely open. If Çalhanoğlu or Yıldız cannot go, the margin narrows significantly, and Australia are well-organised enough under Popovic to make this very uncomfortable. The Socceroos have the shape and the players to frustrate Turkey for long stretches, and Volpato and Irankunda carry a counter-attacking threat that should not be underestimated.

Expect a tight, tense affair. Turkey's class eventually tells, but Australia will make them work for every inch.

Australia 1–2 Turkey — Yengi — Güler, Yıldız

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Haiti

vs

Scotland

Two nations making long-awaited returns to the world stage meet at Boston Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, as Haiti end a 52-year absence from the World Cup and Scotland make their first appearance since 1998. Neither side can afford to drop points in Group C — with Brazil and Morocco lying in wait — which gives this opener an urgency that belies what might look on paper like a lower-profile fixture. For both sets of supporters, just being here is historic. But both know that simply turning up will not be enough.

Haiti — Les Grenadiers

Sébastien Migné's side line up in a 4-4-2, with captain Johny Placide — 38 years old and the most-capped player in Haiti's squad with 81 appearances — between the sticks. The back four of Arcus, Adé, Delcroix and Expérience provides a defensive base, while the midfield four of Providence, Bellegarde, Jacques and Casimir is tasked with limiting Scotland's considerable midfield quality.

The real story of Haiti's qualifying campaign sits further forward. Duckens Nazon — 44 goals in 78 international appearances, a national record — partners Wilson Isidor up front, with Frantzdy Pierrot providing an option from wide. Isidor, who switched eligibility from France, has already scored twice in four appearances for Les Grenadiers and brings genuine top-level quality to this attack. Nazon had more shots (34) and more touches in the opposition box (59) than any other player across the entire CONCACAF qualifying campaign, and his movement and pace will cause Scotland's centre-backs problems throughout.

The context around Haiti's qualification is remarkable. Severe domestic security concerns forced them to play every single home qualifier 500 miles away in Curaçao. Head coach Migné has not set foot on the island since taking charge 18 months ago. What they have achieved to reach this stage, under those circumstances, deserves far more recognition than it has received.

There are vulnerabilities, however. Among the ten CONCACAF sides who played all their qualifiers, only Bermuda and Nicaragua conceded more than Haiti's 13 goals. Scotland's clinical front two will be aware of that.

Scotland — The Tartan Army

Steve Clarke's side also line up in a 4-4-2, with Angus Gunn preferred in goal over the 43-year-old Craig Gordon — the oldest player at this entire World Cup. The back four of Hickey, Souttar, Hendry and captain Robertson is familiar and well-organised. The midfield of Gannon-Doak, McTominay, Ferguson and McGinn is arguably the most complete unit Scotland have put together in a generation — and Scott McTominay is the fulcrum of it all.

McTominay has scored 13 goals for Scotland in competitive matches since the start of 2023 — at least eight more than anyone else. After missing training with a stomach complaint this week he is expected to be fit to start, and his ability to arrive late into the box, carry the ball from deep and impose himself physically is the defining feature of this Scotland team. Alongside him, Lewis Ferguson offers composure and range of passing, while McGinn provides the relentless energy and big-moment quality that have made him so important to Clarke's setup for years.

Up front, Lawrence Shankland — who scored three goals and added an assist across the two warm-up wins over Curaçao and Bolivia — partners Ché Adams. Both arrive in form and hungry, and Haiti's defensive record in qualifying will give them encouragement. Clarke will also be conscious that Scotland have a dismal record against CONCACAF opponents at the World Cup — winless in nine previous encounters — but the squad assembled for this tournament is arguably the strongest Scotland have brought to any major tournament since 1998.

The notable concern is Scotland's own hoodoo. They have been eliminated at the group stage in every single one of their 12 previous World Cup and European Championship appearances — a record no other major European nation comes close to matching. The psychological burden of that history will sit in the background, whether the players admit it or not.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Scott McTominay vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde. The midfield battle could decide this game. McTominay will look to dominate the middle third and arrive late to cause damage — Bellegarde, the Wolves midfielder who has been one of Haiti's most consistent performers, will have to be disciplined and physical to slow him down. If Bellegarde can win that duel and limit McTominay's influence, Haiti have a genuine chance of keeping this close. If McTominay runs free, Scotland will win comfortably.

Prediction

Haiti are not here to make up the numbers — their qualifying campaign was genuinely impressive and Nazon and Isidor are a dangerous partnership. But Scotland's squad is deeper, more experienced at this level and arriving in excellent form after back-to-back four-goal warm-up wins. The supercomputer gives Scotland a 59% chance of victory, and that feels about right.

Expect a competitive first half as Haiti make life difficult, before Scotland's quality eventually tells in the second.

Haiti 1–2 Scotland — Nazon — Shankland, McTominay

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Brazil

vs

Morocco

Two of the most watchable sides at this tournament collide in Group C at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, as five-time world champions Brazil begin their campaign against an Morocco side that reached the semi-finals four years ago and has absolutely no intention of being a supporting act. This is the kind of first-round fixture that feels like it belongs in the knockouts — and with Carlo Ancelotti in the dugout for the Seleção and both squads carrying significant injury concerns, it promises to be anything but straightforward.

Brazil — The Favourites

Ancelotti, appointed in a historic move as Brazil's first ever foreign coach, looks set to deploy a 4-2-3-1. Alisson Becker starts in goal behind a back four of Sandro, Magalhães, Marquinhos and Danilo, with the double pivot of Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães providing the platform from which Brazil operate. That midfield pairing is arguably the best in this tournament — Casemiro screens, Guimarães drives, and together they give Brazil control most sides can only dream of.

Further forward, Raphinha and Lucas Paquetá operate in the advanced roles, while Vinicius Júnior — Brazil's most dangerous weapon and one of the finest players on the planet — starts on the left. The significant news concerns the striker position: Neymar is listed as doubtful with a calf injury and is not expected to start, with Matheus Cunha preferred as the lone forward. Cunha is a livewire presence — mobile, technically sharp and capable of linking play between the lines — but he is a very different animal to the mercurial Neymar, and the weight of carrying Brazil's attack will fall heavily on him alongside Raphinha and Paquetá, with Vinicius expected to be the primary creator and finisher.

Brazil have not won the World Cup since 2002 — a 24-year drought that remarkably mirrors the exact gap between their 1970 and 1994 triumphs, which was also ended on American soil. The symbolism is not lost on anyone. They are also the only nation to have appeared in every single World Cup since 1930, and they have won seven of their eight matches against African nations at the tournament.

Morocco — The Dark Horses

Under Mohamed Ouahbi — who stepped in after Walid Regragui's surprise resignation less than 100 days before the tournament — Morocco have gone three wins and two draws from five matches and arrive in fine fettle. They breezed through CAF qualifying with eight wins from eight and were controversially crowned Africa Cup of Nations champions earlier this year after Senegal were stripped of the title following a chaotic final. The motivation to prove themselves on the biggest stage again is enormous.

Ouahbi will likely line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Bono in goal. Hakimi and the fitness-doubtful Mazraoui — who trained fully on Thursday but remains questionable with a shoulder problem — provide the width at full-back, while Issa Diop and Chadi Riad partner in central defence in the absence of first-choice centre-back Nayef Aguerd, who is ruled out with a groin injury. That is a notable loss — Aguerd is Morocco's most assured defender and the spine of their back line. Whether Diop and Riad can handle Vinicius Júnior in full flight for 90 minutes is the central question of this match.

Going forward, Morocco possess genuine quality. Brahim Díaz — 14 international goals in 26 appearances and the most technically gifted player in this squad — drifts inside from the right and thrives in tight spaces. Azzedine Ounahi pulls the strings in the number ten role with Saibari providing the threat from the left, while Kaabi leads the line as the lone striker. Morocco also lose set-piece specialist Ez Abde to a knee ligament injury for the entire group stage — a blow to a side who built much of their threat from dead-ball situations in 2022.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Vinicius Júnior vs Achraf Hakimi. Hakimi is one of the best attacking full-backs in world football — but he will spend most of this game in a defensive headache. Vinicius is at his most devastating running at pace toward goal, and Morocco's right flank is the avenue Brazil will target repeatedly. If Hakimi pushes forward, he leaves the space Vinicius will exploit in behind. If he stays deep, Morocco lose one of their most potent outlets on the counter. It is a genuine dilemma with no comfortable answer.

Prediction

Morocco will make this uncomfortable. Their defensive structure is real, their attacking players are capable of punishing any lapse, and the loss of Aguerd — while significant — does not strip them of their organisation. But Brazil have too much quality in midfield and on the wings. Vinicius will find a moment, Guimarães will impose himself on the game, and the Seleção should have enough to see it through, even without Neymar.

Expect a tight first half before Brazil's quality tells in the second.

Brazil 2–0 Morocco — Vinicius Júnior, Raphinha

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Qatar

vs

Switzerland

Qatar make their first appearance at a World Cup as qualifiers — having hosted the 2022 edition — when they face a formidable Switzerland side in Group B at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara. For Julen Lopetegui's side, this is uncharted territory in every sense. For Murat Yakin's Swiss, it is another chapter in a long and steady tournament pedigree. The gap in class is real, but Qatar have proven before they are capable of an upset on the right day.

Qatar — The Underdogs

Lopetegui is expected to set up in a compact 4-1-4-1, with Mahmoud Abunada between the sticks. The back four of Ahmed, Khoukhi, Pedro Miguel and Al-Oui provides the defensive base, while Ahmed Fathy operates as the holding midfielder tasked with protecting the shape. The midfield four of Laye, Gaber, Abdurisag and Junior offers industry and width, with the creative burden falling on captain Akram Afif in the advanced role behind the striker.

Afif is the key man — 39 international goals and 11 assists in qualifying alone make him Qatar's most dangerous outlet by some distance. Six of those assists came from set-pieces, and dead-ball situations may well be Qatar's primary route to goal here. The concern is what comes at the other end: Qatar have not scored in their last 373 minutes of football across all competitions, a run stretching back to a December 2025 Arab Cup match against Syria. Their pre-tournament friendlies brought a 1-0 defeat to the Republic of Ireland and a goalless draw with El Salvador. The goals have dried up at the worst possible time.

There is historical encouragement, however — Qatar's only previous meeting with Switzerland ended in a 1-0 friendly win in 2018, with Afif scoring the decisive goal in the 86th minute. Nine players from that squad are back in this one.

Switzerland — The Favourites

Yakin will line up in a 4-3-3, with Gregor Kobel in goal behind a back four of Widmer, Akanji, Elvedi and Rodriguez — an experienced and well-organised defensive unit. The midfield three of Xhaka, Freuler and Aebischer gives Switzerland both the defensive structure and technical quality to control proceedings, with captain Granit Xhaka the conductor at its heart.

Up front, the trio of Ndoye, Embolo and Vargas is as balanced an attacking unit as any in this group. Breel Embolo — one of just five players to have scored multiple goals at both the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024 — leads the line, while Dan Ndoye arrives in excellent form having netted in three of Switzerland's last five matches. Rubén Vargas provides the pace and directness on the opposite flank.

Switzerland topped their UEFA qualifying group without ever falling behind in any of their six matches — a remarkable stat that underlines the defensive solidity underpinning this side. They have lost just once in their last 14 games across all competitions, and the supercomputer gives them a 76% chance of winning this match. They are, by some margin, the class act in this fixture.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Akram Afif vs the Switzerland midfield. Afif is Qatar's only genuine world-class talent and the one player capable of conjuring something from nothing. Xhaka and Freuler will know exactly where the danger lies and will be disciplined in cutting off his supply lines. If Qatar are to cause an upset, Afif needs time and space — two things Switzerland's midfield will be highly reluctant to give him.

Prediction

Qatar's goalscoring drought and the step up in quality they face here makes this a difficult match to see them getting anything from. Switzerland are organised, in-form and packed with players operating at the top level of club football. That said, Lopetegui is an experienced coach who will set up to be hard to beat, and Qatar will make a game of it — at least for a while.

Expect Switzerland to eventually find a way through, with Embolo or Ndoye likely to be the difference-maker.

Qatar 0–2 Switzerland — Embolo, Ndoye

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USA

vs

Paraguay

Co-hosts USA kick off their World Cup campaign on home soil against a disciplined Paraguay side who have proven time and again they are not to be underestimated. Mauricio Pochettino's men carry the weight of a nation's expectations at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, while Gustavo Alfaro's pragmatic Paraguayans arrive as dangerous outsiders with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

United States — The Co-Hosts

Pochettino looks set to deploy a 3-4-2-1 shape, with Matt Freese between the sticks after earning his place as the number one ahead of the tournament. A back three of Ream, Trusty and Richards — though Richards has only just returned from an ankle injury and the door remains open for Miles Robinson — provides the defensive foundation, with Dest and Antonee Robinson as the wing-backs.

In the engine room, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie offer the control and drive this system needs, while Christian Pulisic and Malik Tillman operate in the advanced roles behind lone striker Folarin Balogun. Pulisic had a difficult club season at AC Milan but showed sharp touches against Germany in the final warm-up, and this tournament could be the stage for him to remind the world of his quality. Balogun, meanwhile, hit 19 goals across all competitions for Monaco last season and brings pace and clinical instinct to the attack.

The USA have lost just one of their last nine World Cup group games and have reached the knockout stage in each of their last three tournaments. Playing every Group D fixture on the west coast gives them a genuine and sustained home advantage throughout.

Paraguay — The Dark Horses

Alfaro will likely set up in a compact 4-4-2, built on the defensive solidity that carried them through CONMEBOL qualifying. Gustavo Gomez captains from the heart of the back four alongside Omar Alderete — a player who was sent off against this very opponent in a friendly last November — with Caceres and Alonso providing width at full-back.

The midfield of Bobadilla and Cubas is disciplined and combative, tasked with compressing space and funnelling attacks wide. Miguel Almiron and Diego Gomez offer the creative spark from wider positions, while Julio Enciso — who carries a minor quadriceps concern from the warm-up win over Nicaragua — links the play in the hole behind Tonny Sanabria, La Albirroja's top scorer in qualifying with four goals.

Paraguay's campaign was defined by defensive resilience — they averaged just 37.3% possession in CONMEBOL qualifying and scored the highest proportion of their goals from set-pieces (36%). They will not come to entertain. They will come to make life as uncomfortable as possible, hit the Americans on the break and punish any defensive lapse from a dead ball.

There is also real uncertainty over who lines up in goal. Roberto Fernández would normally be considered the automatic starter, but reports in the lead-up to the tournament have suggested he has slipped to third choice in Alfaro's thinking. Orlando Gill is expected to get the nod — but this is one selection worth watching closely when the teamsheets drop.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Christian Pulisic vs the Paraguay midfield block. Pulisic is at his most dangerous when he receives the ball in tight spaces between the lines and drives at defenders. Paraguay's double pivot of Bobadilla and Cubas will have specific instructions to deny him exactly that. If the USA can find ways to get Pulisic on the ball in central areas, they will create chances. If Paraguay's block holds firm and forces play wide, this could be a very long evening for the hosts.

Prediction

Paraguay are not here just to make up the numbers. They beat world champions Argentina in qualifying, they are organised and defensively stubborn, and they have genuine match-winners capable of punishing a passive US side. The injury doubt over Enciso adds a touch of intrigue — if he starts and fires, he could be the difference.

That said, the USA's home advantage is real, and Balogun and Pulisic together represent a dangerous combination that a limited Paraguay side will struggle to contain for ninety minutes. Expect a tight first half before the Americans find a way through.

USA 2–1 Paraguay — Balogun, Pulisic — Sanabria

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Canada

vs

Bosnia

Co-hosts Canada make their long-awaited return to the World Cup stage — their first appearance since 1986 — as they face a Bosnia and Herzegovina side bursting with attacking quality in what promises to be a compelling opener. Canada will feed off an electric home atmosphere, but Bafana — sorry, Bosnia — arrive with genuine quality throughout and will fancy their chances of making a statement on the grandest stage.

Canada — The Hosts

Canada are likely to set up in a 4-4-2 with Maxime Crepeau in goal behind a back four of Laryea, Fougerolles, Cornelius and Johnston. The midfield four of Millar, Kone, Eustaquio and Buchanan gives them both industry and creativity, with Buchanan capable of causing real problems down the right. Up front, the partnership of Cyle Larin and the supremely talented Jonathan David is one of the most exciting strike pairings in this tournament. David in particular arrives in great form.

Playing at home with a nation behind them for the first time in 40 years, Canada will draw enormous energy from the crowd. The atmosphere could be the difference in what promises to be a tight contest.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — The Dark Horses

Bosnia line up in a mirror 4-4-2 with Vasilj in goal. The back four of Kolasinac, Muharemovic, Katic and Dedic provides a solid foundation, while the midfield of Alajbegovic, Sunjic, Tahirovic and Bajraktarevic is one of the most technically accomplished in this group. But the real danger comes up front — Edin Dzeko, ageless and lethal in the box, leads the line alongside the clinical Ermedin Demirovic in a partnership that will cause Canada's defence serious problems.

Bosnia are not here just to make up the numbers. Dzeko will be desperate to sign off his international career with a World Cup to remember, and that motivation could prove a powerful force throughout the tournament.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Jonathan David vs the Bosnia back four. David is lethal in the channels and arrives at this tournament on the back of a remarkable club season. If Canada can get him running in behind Kolasinac and Dedic, Bosnia will be in serious trouble. The question is whether Bosnia's midfield can be disciplined enough to deny him the space he needs.

Prediction

Canada's home advantage is real, and Jonathan David is capable of winning any game on his own. But Bosnia's firepower — particularly Dzeko — makes this far from straightforward. Expect a tight, physical contest with goals at both ends as two attacking sides go toe to toe.

Canada 2–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina - Jonathan David, Cyle Larin — Edin Dzeko

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