Netherlands
Japan
Group F gets underway at AT&T Stadium in Dallas with one of the most intriguing opener fixtures of this entire World Cup, as the Netherlands take on a Japan side that has quietly become one of the most dangerous teams in this tournament. Ronald Koeman brings an Oranje squad riddled with absences to face a Samurai Blue side who have beaten Brazil and England in warm-up and arrive on a six-match winning run. The supercomputer gives the Dutch a 49.2% win probability — almost a coin flip — and that feels about right for a fixture that could genuinely go either way.
Netherlands — Oranje
Koeman lines up in a 4-2-3-1 that has become the Dutch template, with Bart Verbruggen starting despite suffering a hip injury in their final warm-up match — though he remains a doubt and Leverkusen's Mark Flekken is ready to step in if needed. Behind him, Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk and Van de Ven form the back four. Van Dijk captains the side and remains one of the most imposing centre-backs in world football at 34 — his leadership and aerial dominance will be central to whatever the Dutch achieve this summer.
The double pivot of Frenkie de Jong and Ryan Gravenberch sits at the heart of everything, with De Jong providing the creative link between defence and attack and Gravenberch bringing the physical presence and box-to-box energy that has made him one of Liverpool's most important players. In the advanced positions, Cody Gakpo operates on the left, Tijjani Reijnders in the central role and Summerville on the right, with Donyell Malen leading the line — his red-hot form for Roma this season earning him the nod ahead of all-time top scorer Memphis Depay, who drops to the bench.
The absence list is significant. Jurrien Timber has withdrawn through injury. Matthijs de Ligt is out. Xavi Simons — one of Europe's most exciting creative players — is sidelined. And Jerdy Schouten is also absent. The depth has been tested before a ball has been kicked. The Netherlands are also unbeaten in their last 16 World Cup group games stretching back to 1994, a remarkable record they will be determined to protect. But this is far from the dominant force that squad depth would once have suggested.
Japan — The Samurai Blue
Hajime Moriyasu sets up in a 3-4-2-1 — the system that has become Japan's calling card — with Suzuki in goal behind a back three of Hiroki Ito, Taniguchi and Watanabe. The wing-backs are Doan on the right and Nakamura on the left, with Kamada and Sano in the central midfield positions. The two advanced roles behind Ueda go to Junya Ito and the supremely gifted Takefusa Kubo.
Japan's most notable absence is captain Wataru Endo, who announced his retirement from international football after failing to recover from a foot injury in a devastating blow for Moriyasu's midfield. The equally important Kaoru Mitoma — Japan's most dangerous wide player and one of the Premier League's best — is also missing. Despite those losses, Japan arrive in remarkable form. Six consecutive friendly wins, including stunning victories over both Brazil and England, have given this squad a confidence and belief that goes well beyond their FIFA ranking of 18th.
Their record at Qatar 2022 gives context to the threat: they beat Germany and Spain in the group stage, only to exit to Croatia on penalties in the last 16. The identity is now clearly defined — compact, intense pressing, rapid transitions, technically excellent individual players — and Kubo in particular, pulling the strings from behind Ueda, is capable of deciding any match at this level on his own.
Japan have never beaten the Netherlands in their history. But they have never arrived at a tournament in quite this shape, and Oranje have never faced them in such a depleted state.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Takefusa Kubo vs Frenkie de Jong. Kubo is at his most dangerous receiving the ball in central pockets on the half-turn — exactly the spaces De Jong is responsible for protecting. If Kubo can exploit the gap between Netherlands' midfield and defence, he can pick passes that send Japan's forwards in behind Van Hecke and Van de Ven before they can recover. De Jong will need to be disciplined and alert to that threat throughout, while also being the player Koeman relies upon to drive possession forward. It is a battle that will define the midfield contest and, in all likelihood, the match.
Prediction
This is genuinely too close to call. The Netherlands have the superior individual talent on paper — Van Dijk, De Jong, Gakpo and Reijnders are all top-level players — but the injury list has thinned them considerably, and Japan's momentum, organisation and quality in transition makes them a genuine danger. Koeman will know his side cannot afford a slow start against a team that presses with this intensity.
Japan's record against elite European opposition at recent World Cups should not be dismissed. But the Dutch unbeaten group run stretching back over 30 years carries its own weight. A compelling game — and perhaps the most genuinely uncertain fixture of the opening round.
Netherlands 2–2 Japan — Gakpo, Reijnders — Kubo, Ueda
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