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Relegation - Who do we not want to join us in league 2?

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019.

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  1. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    Which trio from below teams is our biggest threat to auto promotion next season?

    Walsall
    Scunthorpe
    Southend
    Plymouth
    Wimbledon
     
    #1 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
  2. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    Auto promotion next season?

    What factors actually give you the firm belief that auto promotion will occur?
     
    #2 bantamdave41, Apr 27, 2019
    bantamlad92, Carts #CTID and JonButterfield like this.
  3. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    bookies odds? A good source.

    Bookies reckon we are 5 times more likely to win the damn thing than Cheltenham, and near 3 times as likely as Grimsby.

    However when the fun goes out it, dont do it. Bet responsibly.
     
    #3 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
  4. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    Find me the odds for next season. Go on.
     
    #4 bantamdave41, Apr 27, 2019
  5. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    do it yourself you lazy ****
     
    #5 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
  6. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    That's cos they ain't any and you just made up a big lie.
     
    #6 bantamdave41, Apr 27, 2019
  7. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    #7 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
    Berkshire-bantam, How, bantamlad92 and 5 others like this.
  8. WilsdenBantam

    WilsdenBantam Squad Player
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    All 6 seasons we were in that awful league last time we were big favourites it goes on club size as much as anything.
     
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    #8 WilsdenBantam, Apr 27, 2019
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  9. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    that because the bigger clubs have usually the better budget.

    We had a GREAT budget this year. We had a head of recruitment that was more tuned into machinery that football players mind.
     
    #9 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
  10. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    go on apologise, dont be a park bantam be a bigger person. You will feel good afterward.
     
    #10 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
  11. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    Apologies indeed. Not a comprehensive book but I take your point.

    I wouldn't rely on betting odds to base your argument on automatic promotion.

    In fact with regards to City, you could freely get 10/1 on relegation and 25/1 on finishing bottom.
     
    #11 bantamdave41, Apr 27, 2019
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  12. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    its not gospel, it just the most likely outcome.
     
    #12 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
  13. Interested Bystander

    Interested Bystander Important Player
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    Leyton Orient
     
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    #13 Interested Bystander, Apr 27, 2019
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  14. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    What's the most likely outcome?

    Automatic promotion?!?!
     
    #14 JonButterfield, Apr 27, 2019
  15. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    come on Jon?

    The bookies think its far more likely we will have auto promotion than the likes of port vale, grimsby, etc etc hence why we are favourite at this time.
     
    #15 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
  16. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Favourites for league 2, we really are living the dream eh?
     
    #16 Rogered Tart, Apr 27, 2019
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  17. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    The bookies think Bradford have more fans, so more people will bet on Bradford.

    It's just hedging their bets.

    I used to work for Hills (did Dave as well?), and the first thing they said was 'the odds aren't about how likely a horse/team/person is to win, the odds are about how likely the horse/team/person is to attract money'.

    Besides, I heard the argument that the bookies generally get things right every time they got our next manager bang wrong recently.
     
    #17 JonButterfield, Apr 27, 2019
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  18. Bantam Blade

    Bantam Blade Fringe Player

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    Usually the bigger teams will have the bigger hedge the bets. ie In this league we are saying good bye too Portsmouth, Barnsley, and Sunderland etc will have had this mindset attached before a ball was kicked this season. It is still a benchmark of the most likely. I personally think it fair to say we have a greater chance to league 2 promotion than Grimsby etc even if we have more fans ;-) . If you feel different then maybe I am showing too much respect rather than you disrespect

    @Fordy117@Fordy117 do you think we should have more chance than Morecambe etc of promotion next year? or am I setting my standard to high. ;-) lol
     
    #18 Bantam Blade, Apr 27, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2019
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  19. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    It's a general opinion.

    Scunthorpe were 14-1 outsiders for relegation this season, just 4-1 to win promotion.

    Luton and Barnsley are going up, to be joined by one other team, hardly the two biggest sides in the division.

    What if it's Doncaster? Expected to struggle this season, outsiders for promotion.

    We obviously weren't seen as likely to be relegated, not was there any confidence in us going up.

    Why didn't the bookies recognise that we were in a terrible, terrible mess?

    Truth is: they did - but the bookies are interested in value (ie, how to maximise their own winnings), so even if they were absolutely certain we'd go down bottom, we were never going to be odds on favourites.

    It is what it is.

    The bookies specialise in public perception, they aren't judged on the accuracy of their predictions.
     
    #19 JonButterfield, Apr 27, 2019
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  20. Bantamshell

    Bantamshell Impact Sub

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    @Bantam Blade@Bantam Blade I'll give you my answer instead of arguing about the question! For me Plymouth is the one I wouldn't want with us in league 2. Big club at that level and bounced back quickly after relegation recently
     
    #20 Bantamshell, Apr 27, 2019
    bantamlad92, Idlebantam, Chad and 2 others like this.
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