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Points needed for safety

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by River_City_Bantam, Nov 6, 2018.

  1. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    I had put this as an answer in the Rhodes-is-back thread, but think as a topic it might be better on its own. I've deleted the post there, and put it here.

    That will be me insisting that 55 should be the target. Here's why: 37 seasons of three points for a win; in those seasons, the minimum number of points needed to be safe (in div. 3) has been:

    44 - 1/37
    45 - 4/37
    46 - 5/37
    47 - 9/37
    48 - 14/37
    49 - 17/37
    50 - 22/37
    51 - 30/37
    52 - 32/37
    53 - 35/37
    54 - 37/37

    There are notes/clarifications to be added to some of these minimums, but nothing would dramatically change the numbers. I'll just say here that once a team on 54 points did go down, on goal difference (88/9, Southend and Northampton both on 54 points, Southend relegated and Northants stayed up).

    50 pts is no guarantee of safety, therefore; 55 is guaranteed. Somewhere between those two should be enough; I'd say aim for 52, or a 1.45 points-per-game clip. That would be a top-half or even top-10 but not playoff side's pace.

    RCB
     
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  2. Aireboro Bantam

    Aireboro Bantam Impact Sub

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    Thanks RCB. Certainly shows what should be the target. I saw some taking exception to JR saying Hopkin's target is to finish 20th - your post shows that JR is right and just how tall an order it will be reach that target. 20th would be a superb result considering the mess we are in.

    To look at things plainly, we have to ask if there are four teams worse than us and I'm not sure there are. We are waiting for things to click whereas clubs like Plymouth, Wimbledon & Bristol Rovers have stability to call upon so will pick up points.

    We need to make sure we don't have too much to do when injuries/suspensions return and improvements to the squad are made. If that gap grows much larger than 7 points then January may end up being better served planning for next season.
     
  3. Johnny Yen

    Johnny Yen Squad Player

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    Before long we'll need play-off form to stay up
     
  4. How

    How Knows Football
    P.L. 18/19 Winner Euro 2020

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    As long as the players are concentrating on getting the points and not worrying about the league position.

    One game at a time.
     
  5. RonnieBrown

    RonnieBrown Emergency Backup

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    That day is drawing closer by the week, Johnny.
    Give me 20 pts by Christmas ...... With some more to come following the January 1st, and you may have me onboard.

    But seriously ? I can only see about 40 points (MAX), come May. :(

    So much wasted time, and not long enough to right any wrongs. We are STILL in pre-season preparation !! (And will be again, following any subsequent transfers, in the New Year.) :mad:
     
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  6. Steve1970

    P.L. 20/21 Top 20

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    Unless we are buying Messi, Ronaldo, mbappe and pique in January I wouldn't think about reaching 40 points never mind 55.
     
  7. How

    How Knows Football
    P.L. 18/19 Winner Euro 2020

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    As I said before we feel like bury of last season.

    We will probs get between 35-40 points I fear
     
  8. Goose

    Goose Impact Sub

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    I can't even see us winning again let alone getting enough points to stay up. We could quite easily be 18/19/20 points adrift by the time the transfer window opens.
     
  9. Broadsider

    Broadsider Emergency Backup

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    55pts and takes no working out that barring an astonishing up turn in results we're not going to reach it!

    Look at it this way, 17 games have mustered only a measly 10pts. How the heck then are this hapless bunch going to get 20pts out of the next 17 games?

    It's no use pinning our hopes on the cavalry charging in on 01/01/19 either. Who in all honesty are we going to bring in to change all this?

    Simply it ain't gonna happen. We're down!
     
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  10. How

    How Knows Football
    P.L. 18/19 Winner Euro 2020

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    Glad you’re not in charge but agree with your points.

    We have to start somewhere and quick
     
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  11. banbrotam

    banbrotam Impact Sub

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    It's a turnaround that the squad has the ability to do - if the majority are fit and firing. Injury situation can't be dismissed. Leeds had a great start got six injuries - great start over, got some of the injured back - improvement

    If fans want to assume we're down, then fine - but the squad as other managers have said (and they've no need to say it) should be able to take 1.5 points per match after say the Peterborough one, i.e. 42

    Likening us to Bury is fine to a point - but I think Hopkin is better than anyone they had

    Bad runs can be turned around. It's imperative that the improved showing is now shown for the next few matches and if it is we'll pick up points and have a Cup run
     
  12. banbrotam

    banbrotam Impact Sub

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    "The hapless bunch" have hardly played together - so you're basing your view on the injury situation to stay the same. If it does I agree with you

    I can't remember a team of O'Donnell, say Mellor or Riley, two or McGowan or NKP or O'Connor plus Chicksen or Wood - Akpan and the two O'Brien's and then three of Payne, Scannell, Ball and Doyle ever playing together. Can you? And we've still got Wright plus perhaps Jones, Reeves and those not chosen above

    All assumes no injuries, which is of course is unlikely - but a first eleven from the team above is realistic for perhaps the Oxford match onwards

    Having a fully fit squad to pick from, always improves the chances of any team

    I'd go as far as saying that the current squad, could pull us out of this - but the boost of some Hopkin chosen faces in January would of course help
     
  13. Broadsider

    Broadsider Emergency Backup

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    As regards absentees, other than perhaps JOB, l don't believe that having the likes of Scannell, Reeves, Mellor & Jones fit and regularly available would make one jot of difference to our potential points haul!

    The current L1 table doesn't lie and without question this is consistently the worst performing group of players in the entire league.

    Major surgery is essential on 01/01/19 to have any hope at all of suddenly transforming our fortunes and frankly it will be impossible for us to attract and finance the sheer number of real quality players required!
     
  14. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    We are in trouble, without doubt. Sides can survive, even do very well, with one bad 10-game segment, but we are well on the way to two. To get ourselves heading in the right direction and onto the right pace we really need two wins from the next three, but P'boro and Luton away will both be difficult and Oxford are just as much in need of a win as ourselves.

    Some have pointed to the 83/4 side, which also had a horrific start but ended up in 7th. It can be done, but compare the players then to the current side: who are the young and youngish players destined for solid, even great careers (Abbott, McCall, Jackson...), who the solid veterans (Cherry, Cooke, Ellis, McManus, Podd, Yorath...), who the 20-goal scorer (Hawley), who the icon coming back to help (Campbell)?

    RCB
     
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  15. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    True. Losing has become too much of a habit. Getting past Aldershot first time round would be a good start; even progressing in the Checkatrade would help us.

    RCB
     
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  16. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Did the Gillingham manager say we should stay up?

    Did the Coventry, Rochdale, or Accrington managers make such statements?

    It's as hollow as when Gianluca Vialli said we'd have no issues staying up after we beat Chelsea 2-0; or Wenger saying the same after we drew 1-1 at home.

    The parallels to the 2000-01 season are frightening - reasonable performances against elite clubs are earning plaudits from the managers of good clubs - WONDERFUL - but we finished bottom in 2000-01, and we're likely to finish bottom again.

    We weren't disgraced by many clubs in 2000-01, we just steadily, relentlessly LOST GAMES.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_Bradford_City_A.F.C._season

    Hopkin is the new Jim Jefferies. I hope he starts to cut his cloth accordingly.
     
  17. bantamdave41

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter Euro 2020

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    Bury capitulated once Jermaine Beckford got injured and ruled out for the season, was it a few weeks after we get beaten 3-1 at Gigg Lane. I just looked at the table following our defeat and they had 12 points from 12 games with Beckford scoring 8 in 16 games. They ended up on 36 points, picking up just a further 24 points from 34 games, including a 2-2 draw at VP in which a certain George Miller scored deep into injury time.
     
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  18. QCFC BANTAM

    P.L. 23/24 Top 30 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant Supporter

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    Blackpool away?

    Mellor's been shocking all season. Riley been hooked after 50 mins every game played.
    McGowan, O'Connor and NKP...wtf? We have minus 19 goal difference, conceding 31 goals. None of them tackle, they just back off and back off. Watch the goals we've conceded. Chicksen...really...Wood has been the best defender and he's a young lad and not ours.

    Akpan, give me hope...for such a big unit he is so lightweight. Wright, I can point out problems but I won't do anything about it. Was he tracking Evans on Saturday? The 2 O'Bs are the best midfielders we have.

    Scannell has been ineffective given his pedigree.

    Reeves and Jones won't play again.

    The strikers I think could get goals but there are no crosses coming in, no real chances being created and we are trying to play to a 'target man' when we don't have one!! Hence 12 goals all season.

    Yes 'hapless bunch'.
     
  19. QCFC BANTAM

    P.L. 23/24 Top 30 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant Supporter

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    L@@ds have a great squad, we don't. Bad run....we've had 4 different managers, entire new squad of players and we are categorically the worst performing team in 2018. I Believe In Miracles...
     
  20. HUDDERSSBANTAM

    HUDDERSSBANTAM Squad Player

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    Wood is ours.
     
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