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Play Off Requirements

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by Ulysses S Grant, Feb 21, 2023.

  1. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    I've virtually given up on automatics, so I thought I would do an RCB and have a look at the playoff point spread over the last ten years to see what we would need to do to hit that in any form.

    Going back to 12/13 and adjusting 19/20 (early finish) up to 46 games there is a spread of 69 points (us in 12/13) up to 77 points last season to achieve 7th.

    The seasons with lower points to hit 7th also correlate with a season where there has been a run away leader (like this season) and the season with the higher points total are where title was up for grabs going into the last two weeks.

    The average spread is 72.4 for 7th to 79.3 for 4th, and there are four seasons where achieving above the average was required (75/75/73/77) to hit seventh and six where below the average was required (69 to 72)

    The average required to get 72 is just under 1.57 points per game and guess what ? We have 1.60 points per game.

    So what does that tell us ? It tells us that if we continue to average 1.60 points a game we will end up on a points total where in every other season that had a "runaway leader" a total of 72 points was enough to get at least 7th place, and we don't need to worry about the teams above because at least one of them will fail to hit 72 points an finish outside the playoffs.

    It's not what we expected and it's not what we hoped for, but given our consistent ability to pick up 24 points from 15 game segments, even if we are inconsistently consistent in how they come, we are bang on target to finish 7th.

    The rest is cup football.
     
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    #1 Ulysses S Grant, Feb 21, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2023
  2. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    But we lost the last match, so according to some that's 0 points from the last 1 game, therefore we're struggling.
     
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  3. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    Aye that's right, take away the performance and result against Barrow and there's no reason at all to suggest that we're struggling. Apart from that game we've been on fire, especially at home!
     
    NorthernMonkey likes this.
  4. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Home, schmome, it's meme-level logic that you have to win at home and draw away.

    Who cares where the results come from, our form away is one of the best in the division, that's why we're contenders for the play offs, if not autos.

    Can we stop relying on clichés when we're desperate to shit on our own team?
     
  5. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    I'm not quite sure that suggesting we are struggling constitutes 'shitting on your own team'.

    For the record, we are struggling.
     
    NorthernMonkey and vladimir like this.
  6. Loyalbantam

    P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    If we get in the playoffs we’ll piss it as 2 of the games are away from home.
    Just draw the home leg 1-1 and we’ll be reet
     
    SteveC, mrtrickio, vin weasel and 5 others like this.
  7. Rogered Tart

    P.L. 23/24 Top 30 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    Doesn't matter what position you end up in the playoffs, just make sure you hit them in good form otherwise forget it.
     
  8. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    Which is why finishing 7th is often a good place to be. The team that finishes 3rd are the ones to worry.
     
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  9. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    Such negativity for a team that would be in the play offs if not for one poor result. No wonder the team feel the pressure if they aren't 3.0 up inside ten minutes. Remind me never to invite you to a dinner party, you'd suck the life out of the room.

    You & @Rcbantam@Rcbantam should consider getting a room.
     
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    vladimir likes this.
  10. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    'Struggling'.
     
    XCIV_Bantam likes this.
  11. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter

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    We need to pray that the away form continues because performances and results at fortress I mean sandcastle VP will get us nowhere
     
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  12. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    I think we may disagree on the semantics of 'struggling' rather than how the season is going. Let's quantify this, how would you rate the season so far out of 10?
     
  13. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    I don't think it's negative at all to say we are 'struggling'.
     
  14. Polo-Bantam

    Euro24 PL Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant Supporter

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    1 out of 5 at home
    4 out of 5 away
    Overall 5 out of 10
    The majority of us only experience the home score of 1 that’s the struggle for me
     
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  15. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    I'd give a 4/10. Anyone can feel free to tell me why I should lower my expectations.
     
  16. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter

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    I think a better description would be under performing despite the advantage of probably the best backing for the manager for a long time. We are still in a good position along with a lot of other teams but a failure this season would be a disaster for this club in my ooinion
     
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  17. Rogered Tart

    P.L. 23/24 Top 30 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    As it stands we are eighth. The highest we can go if we win our games in hand is 7th. Saturday and Tuesday could be pivotal to where we finish, both tricky games, one against a close rival and the other against an inform team who have invested heavily in January. Taking this all this into account our results upto now show we aren't struggling so to speak. Neither are we ripping up any trees.
    5/10 if you want to mark it.
     
    WilsdenBantam likes this.
  18. Polo-Bantam

    Euro24 PL Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant Supporter

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    Without out wishing to state the obvious, Rochdale and Barrow at home has really hurt us. Not saying we deserved to win those games, we didn’t, but we certainly should in theory win them.
    Had we won them we would be on 54 points
    1 point behind 3 rd place with 2 games in hand
     
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  19. WilsdenBantam

    Euro24 PL Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant Supporter Euro 2020

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    Struggling is incorrect we’d be near the bottom if that were the case, we recently recorded back to back wins one of which was over second in the league.

    Now onto our league position and some of the defeats when it looked like we’d turned a corner and underachieving and disappointing are for more accurate descriptions. I’ll give it a 6 out of 10, 5 if we don’t capitalise on our games in hand.
     
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  20. Stafford Bantam

    Staff Member Moderator P.L. 20/21 Top 30 Supporter

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    Why would the team finishing 3rd be worried? ;)
     
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