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First 7 Games

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by mrtrickio, Sep 11, 2023.

  1. mrtrickio

    mrtrickio Fringe Player

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    Have we had a tough start? Should we have had more points after seven games? Forget bookies favourites or playing budgets for now. And let's just consider the league table...

    I've looked at every teams games played so far and based on the table as of today ranked each match with a difficulty rating based on league position after seven games.

    With 24 teams we'd expect an average league position difficulty rating (LPDR) of 12.5 being based on 1st (top of the league) being assigned 1 point and 24th (bottom of the league) being assigned 24 points. Consequently a low LPDR means a team have had a tough start and a high LPDR signifies a relatively easy start.

    Doncaster, currently bottom have the lowest rating (hardest matches) with a rating of 7.86 and playing a team in the current top 7 for each of their last 5 games. Possibly understandably struggling but should expect some easier games coming up.

    Gillingham, currently top have the second highest LPDR (easiest matches) with a rating of 16.86 and already played 3 of the current bottom 4.

    All of the top seven (autos and play off spots) have higher than average (that 12.5) LPDR and so have had relatively easier fixtures. The exception being Crewe who have had a tough start and yet still find themselves in 6th. I'd expect them to move up the table when their easier games start to kick in.

    City have an LPDR of 11.71 so just slightly more difficult than average but similar to Wrexham's (11.86) who are in 7th. Our rating suggests we've had the 11th most difficult start of the division. But pretty average in terms of difficulty of teams we've played and yet we're in the lower half of the table.

    My conclusion.. the teams at the top will drop off and the teams at the bottom will improve. Doncaster will come good, Barrow will slide down the table and Harrogate will be bottom soon.

    Bradford will continue to disappoint.

    That LPDR table in full (shown in league position order)

    Gillingham 16.86
    Notts County 16.29
    Mansfield 14.86
    MK Dons 13.00
    Swindon 14.83
    Crewe 9.86
    Wrexham 11.86
    Barrow 17.50
    Walsall 13.43
    Crawley 11.29
    Wimbledon 15.86
    Grimsby 8.57
    Newport 15.43
    Morecambe 11.50
    Accrington 9.43
    Bradford 11.71
    Stockport 8.29
    Salford 14.43
    Forest Green 13.86
    Colchester 10.50
    Harrogate 14.71
    Tranmere 11.43
    Sutton 8.43
    Doncaster 7.86

    I realise I should've inverted the points so a higher LPDR signified more difficult matches so far but it is what it is. It's a made up indicator anyway. It's no Xg but one that I hope triggers a bit of discussion.
     
  2. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter

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    When we beat Harrogate on Saturday we will have played 4 at home and 4 away and will probably well in the top half a better time to do the comparison
     
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  3. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    Been having this debate on another thread with posters who keep saying we've had a tough start. Without going into your in depth analysis it seems clear that our fixtures so far haven't been 'difficult' by any measure whatsoever.

    I do however think we'll improve significantly when we get some key players back. I fancy Stockport to make some serious headway soon and having spoken to some Donny fans at work I think they'll be picking up. Interesting that they've statistically had a very tough start.
     
    #3 Bumblebee_Tuna, Sep 11, 2023
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2023
    borderlescott and mrtrickio like this.
  4. Jordan

    P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    Gillingham is an interesting one. You look at their schedule and its not surprising they are top. But they've only scored 5 goals in 7 games and are top of the league. Five 1-0 wins so far against some of the "easier" sides in the division. Fluke?... possibly. But a good base if they can build on it.
     
  5. Brent

    Brent Emergency Backup

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    Interesting thread. Gillingham's run doesn't seem quite as impressive now.

    For me, we're right on the borderline of acceptability for this point in the season.

    A convincing win on Saturday and we'll be on 12 points from 8 games. Not an incredible start by any stretch of the imagination, but it's acceptable and something to build on. Plus we have had key players injured and some events go against us (player sent off in the first game, Cook's penalty miss, etc).

    A loss against Harrogate and I'll start to worry.
     
  6. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    Its still about performance for me. We batter Harrogate and their keeper has a worldy and we draw 0-0 then that'll do for me. We play like we did first half on Saturday and snatch an undeserved late winner I'm not going to be getting excited.
     
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  7. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    I think we've obviously had a tough start, but it's not a 'cool' thing to say.

    Some people think we shouldn't be rationalising, as they mistake that for making excuses.
     
  8. NorthernMonkey

    Supporter

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    'Cool' has nothing to do with it. We've been dreadful up to press barring probably the Stockport game and I think we're probably slightly lucky to have as many points as we have.
     
  9. Bumblebee_Tuna

    Bumblebee_Tuna Squad Player

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    Its not even a matter of subjectivity. We haven't had a 'tough' start. We've played teams that average out at mid table. It's not been an easy start either. It's been a start that is very much representative of this division. It has not been comparatively tough by any measure.
     
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  10. AngryGaz

    AngryGaz Impact Sub

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    On paper there are only two games in there that you would call tough and that's Mansfield and Stockport.We have made these set of games look tough because our manager has set us up to look that way.
     
  11. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Everyone in the division has been dreadful for one reason or other

    Gillingham can't score, Swindon need to score 5 to guarantee a point some weekends, everyone has lost ridiculous games...

    Nothing to worry about too much so far, aside from obviously injuries, as no team seems to actually be playing 'well'.
     
  12. Solentbantam

    Solentbantam Impact Sub

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    Which makes it even more frustrating that we are where we are. Everyone said this league would be tougher this year, but so far that’s not been the case. Once again, we’ve failed to take the opportunity that’s presented itself and we’re playing catch up again.
     
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  13. SteveC

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    This season is nailed on to be another "draw specialist" season. I think it was in McCalls last spell, yes we had unbeaten runs but most of them were draws, so not many points are actually accumulated. Mid table finish beckons unfortunately
     
  14. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    It's not an easy start though is it ? Away at two teams expected to be top seven, home to Grimsby who have spent quite a bit and home to Crewe who are always difficult to beat, ditto Morecambe against an old manager who won't fire his team up any better than he did against us. I know the football is shite, but put three points on that total that we should have been looking for from a trip to Crawley and we would have been fairly happy.

    Injuries taking their toll as well. Now I'm not suddenly saying Hughes is the messiah (we know he's just "a very naughty boy" to coin Monty Python) but IF (and it's the biggest IF in the world) he sees sense and ditches the back three there is hope.

    If on the other hand, he doesn't then god help him.
     
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  15. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    All I can say I guess is at least we're not miles behind anyone right now.

    Sooner or later some sides will find some consistency, we obviously hope that us.
     
  16. Brent

    Brent Emergency Backup

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    We have also played 4/7 games away. Getting tough away fixtures like Stockport and Mansfield out of the way is a plus.

    I'm not clutching at straws to justify our position, but I'll hold judgement until ~10 games in. Until then a few good/bad results can really swing things.
     
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  17. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    The next three games "should" be winnable, and we are long overdue another away win. If we are sat on 18 points after 10 games I'll revert to being reasonably happy.
     
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  18. Brent

    Brent Emergency Backup

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    1.8 points per a game is what Northampton achieved to get 3rd last season.
     
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  19. Bigrod

    Staff Member Moderator P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 30 Qatar 2022 Entrant Supporter

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    Statistically we are gaining 1.2857 points per game.

    If we carry on we will end up on 59 points.

    Last season Grimsby in 11th got 61 points, whereas Tranmere in 12th got 58 points.

    Northampton who clinched the third automatic spot on 83 points, averaged 1.8043 points per game.

    Three of the teams automatically promoted in 2023 were in the top 5 after 7 games. Below is the comparable table.

    At present we are well off the pace.

    upload_2023-9-12_9-59-23.png
     
  20. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    So realistically, the only difference between our start this season and last season has been the failure to beat Grimsby, fine margins.
     
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