COVID-19

How's that looking after the latest update?

 

I’m not averse to compassion. Quite the opposite - but we need compassion on a holistic basis. My attitude to this has changed cover the months. When it first appeared that this could be a completely indiscriminate disease that posed a genuine risk to life for people of all ages and conditions, I was supportive of the lockdown measures that were taken. But since then, a better picture of risk has appeared. Most people have nothing to worry about from this virus. But what about those losing their jobs - and facing into an economic recession the likes of which we’ve never seen? What about the future generation who’ll be paying back the government in taxes for decades to come? What about the weddings, funerals, family celebrations that are being missed? What about the people who’ll die from illnesses that they can’t get appointments for because they’re not yet known to be serious cases? What about the suicides and disastrous physical and mental health issues we’re seeing? What about a generation of kids who aren’t getting the education they need? We need normality for the majority. And we need to shield and protect - with dignity, those who are most at risk.

 

They said today that 50,000 cases a day would result in 200 deaths a day. Thats 0.4% mortality rate.

Are they expecting less people as a % to die due to it now than did earlier this year ? Seems so?

 

And I completely agree with you. It is a balance and we've got to acknowledge how difficult that one is to walk.

The issue is how you logically do it and you have to do it with your eyes open to what could occur. Trying to minimise the impact that this could have either in terms of spread, mortality or long term issues doesn't help anybody.

As I said earlier I am managing my risk as far as I can. Mixing with friends but socially distancing and limiting my interactions with more vulnerable people such as my older family. That's my current trade off and to me it seems logical.

There is no way the government could give that sort of official advice - they can't even get people to see the difference between sitting in a pub with strangers and sitting in your living room with family!

 

Defend, defend, defend...It's ok to admit the government are getting it wrong. The government are in power for another 4 years.

The government have lost control of this now and don't know what to do but we need to learn to live with this virus and making people not see their family, losing their jobs, putting businesses under, letting kids suffer is not the answer! Or do you think it is?

 

My opinion has nothing to do with the government. You're like a stuck record.

We do need to learn to live with it I agree.

Have you figured out what capacity means yet or how we could guarantee to test 100% of the people with the disease?

 

England has edged to a new high on September 14th so it's still flat to slightly up but probably rising more slowly than the increase in testing processing. Wales has a similar increase. Is it up more than testing? I don't know. Data will need breaking down. Northern Ireland and Scotland have sharper rises. England and Wales could be flat still when adjusted for increasing test processing so talk of lockdown immediately looks a ridiculous overreaction still. Harder to say for Scotland and Northern Ireland which look a bit worse. Hospital admissions look steady again, backing up the flatter trend in new cases since around September 7th. Why lock down if new cases adjusted for test numbers are flat to falling in England and hospital admissions have maybe flattened off, too, backing up that trend?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-does-rcgp-surveillance-tell-us-about-covid-19-in-the-community/

Yet you have Whitty and Valance predicting the apocalypse in a few weeks.

Really is disgraceful that they didn't take questions today to challenge their models. Obviously policy questions they can't answer, but to allow them to present such fear as they did today without a smidge of challenge is really poor. But I'm not surprised.

 

Well it's the government making the rules up and a shambles of all this.

Yes, I fully understand what capacity is..It means nothing in this situation. We can't guarantee to test 100% of the people with the disease and this is the point. People that feel they have the disease need to be tested but what we can't have is the cure becoming worse than the problem which is currently happening right now.

 

Isn't the high on the 16th with the 17th being the next highest - their graph is broken so I know what you were looking at but the data behind it is there.

I'm not sure the hospital stats are steady but they're certainly not extreme. The last two days are the only ones who have exceeded 200 and up until the 13th they were all below 150 so it's a pretty decent percentage jump in the last week.

And I agree that those figures wouldn't back up another lockdown thankfully but I also understand that the worry from March is that once these things start rising - and pretty much every indicator is now doing that - then things don't stop until something is changed. Hope to God they don't go down the route of another lockdown though but to avoid it we probably have to do something.

 

I agree. However whilst the policy decisions rest at the door of the government, they are working on the models and interpretation of their advisors, of which Whitty and Valance are two. They presented a hypothetical scenario today, to which other statisticians and scientists disagree with, and did not have to answer valid opposition arguments. Whether that was their decision or a government one I don't know but I think its a very poor show.

 

Well capacity might mean something in a few days since we're running at about 85% of that so it won't take a major jump before people who need a test literally can't get one.

Ah right, so when you say we need to forget about the behavioral changes, open up society and rely completely on testing you realise that is a completely flawed idea. That's cool, was just checking,

 

Yes. You are right. It's the way you hover over the 16th and it shows data for the 14th still. Sorry. It does not make much difference for now, though. Locking down now would still be panic on such trends. The consequences would be more damaging than the cost as things stand. That might change. They should give it another week to see if their exponential rise appears. It does not look to be there on recent days trends..

 

Nah, it wasn't your fault. I'd gone straight to the data but knew what had happened as soon as I went back to look. That graph is knackered!

Completely agree. They need to give it a bit more time to see where it's going for definite.

 

This...today was the start of everyone really protecting their own interests. Them two talking with no questions, no Boris, no Handcock...It's like we told you all so if it goes wrong.

Rishi will come out soon and try to be the golden boy.

Boris will come out tomorrow deliever the news about lockdown etc then in a few weeks blame it on Whitty etc.

Hancock will make out he is protecting the the NHS.

Have you all notice that Raab want nothing to do with this mess now he's busy in the USA now. He's out of here.

So, forgive me now if I am ignoring Boris and everyone else because guess what? It seems to me the leaders in this country just care about themselves. Get more testing, get the track and trace sorted then I might listen.

 

The threat level has increased to 4. No way we are not going to be in some sort of severe lockdown asap.

BoJo will likely announce the restrictions starting with pubs clubs leisure facilities restaurants. Fear for them. Then no unnecessary travel. Work from home wherever you can.

I don't think we will get a full lockdown as before because we are more aware of what precautions to take ( or ought to be) and businesses in general will be Covid compliant.

 

So you you be fine not going to your family or friends house?