City stats and gaudy charts

Results are improving, optimism is returning... time for a couple of gaudy charts to close off the year! Nothing earth-shattering in these, just some different ways to track a season's progress. The spreadsheet does all the work, so one can plug in whatever numbers one likes.

In this post, the current season's @RonnieBrown chart, as if I remember correctly, this is the sort of chart RB said he used to track progress. City's points gained are mapped against a 1.5 points per match (ppm) pace. That pace leads to 69 points, which in turn leads to a comfortable season, sometimes even a playoff one (5/32) (We've had the playoffs now for 32 seasons.) We're still too far below the comfort line, but we are getting closer.



In my next post, the current season mapped against some more ppm targets.

RCB

 

I thought I'd see what's been needed to get into the autos and the playoffs in the third tier over the past 32 seasons. For the playoffs, the actual points gained by playoff sides has ranged from 69 to 82, the minimum number of points needed from 66 to 81. For auto-promotion, actual points have ranged from 79 to 96, minimum points from 77 to 91. Note: for my calculations, a side just needs to better the first non-playoff or non-auto side by 1 point. For simplicity’s sake, I haven’t even tried to allow for situations where teams might be level on points...

For a 50% chance of autos, you need 84 points (17/32), for a 50% chance of making the playoffs, you need 72 points (16/32). These work out to 1.83 and 1.56 ppm. Then let’s add in the 1.5ppm “comfort” line, and the 1.19ppm “safety” line – based on my opinion that 55 points guarantees safety. Finally, let’s put in the current season.



Again, we’re under where we want to be, but that “safety” line is rather close.

RCB

 

I agree; it's still clear but that's probably as many bars/lines as you'd want on one chart. Playoffs are probably out, but somewhere between safety and comfort is more than doable.

RCB

 

All credit to you for the approach. I had some time to kill -- no renovations for the Christmas season! -- so thought I'd see what happens if I put the spreadsheet to work. And once one starts...

The trends are in the right direction. I also looked at our points per match figures, and rolling 10-game stats; again we are headed in the right direction, indeed if we can just keep things going as we are, we will be safe with room to spare. I did not think I'd be entertaining that idea this season. It's a shame that the previous troubles mean that it will, in some ways, be a wasted season. Still, we'd been heading upwards and getting used to the idea; perhaps a sharp slap in the face was needed...

RCB

 

What on earth?!? Modern performance art, or a naturist group agitating for nude standing zones in stadia?

RCB

 

Whilst I'm at the updating, might as well do these too!





Nerve-wracking it may have been, but at least we did what we had to today: got the win, got closer again leaving the bottom four, pulled another team right into the relegation mix. Barnsley and Peterborough managing to rescue draws from losses certainly helps us as well.

RCB