The Voice - Match preview Carlisle United vs Bradford City Saturday 26th January 2022 @ 3:00pm

League Two Fixture #21 (Take #3)

Monday 26th December 15:00
Carlisle United vs Bradford City
Brunton Park

Most Recent Results:

1: Bradford City 1 – 1 Crawley Town
2: Mansfield Town 1 – 2 Bradford City
3: Sutton United 0 – 2 Bradford City
4: Bradford City 1 – 3 Northampton Town
5: Leyton Orient 3 – 0 Bradford City

Form: LLWWD

1: Harrogate Town 3 – 3 Carlisle United
2: Carlisle United 0 – 0 Walsall
3: Salford City 1 – 4 Carlisle United
4: Carlisle United 1 – 1 Sutton United
5: Northampton Town 2 – 1 Carlisle United

Form: LDWDD

Head-to-Head Results:

Head-to-Head Form: WLLLD

26 Dec 2019: Carlisle United 0 – 0 Bradford City
05 Dec 2020: Bradford City 0 – 1 Carlisle United
13 Mar 2021: Carlisle United 3 – 1 Bradford City
08 Jan 2022: Carlisle United 2 – 0 Bradford City
07 May 2022: Bradford City 2 – 0 Carlisle United

Head-to-Head Results (All Time):

Won: 22
Drawn: 14
Lost: 20

Biggest Margin of Victory:

24 Nov 1951: Bradford City 6 – 1 Carlisle United [FA Cup]
07 Apr 1953: Bradford City 7 – 2 Carlisle United [Division Three (North)]

Spoiler: Historic Results Analysis

An historically favourable tie for Bradford City, things have taken a turn for the worse in recent decades with The Bantams slumping to an overall record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats since 2006.

Worse, Bradford City haven't won at Brunton Park since 1985, losing 6 times and drawing just 2 games in the following 37 years. If you hear people cursing Carlisle United as a place that Bradford City simply do not win at, then that might be because no Bradford City fan under the age of 40 will realistically remember winning there!

Still, historical trends like these are made to be broken, and Mark Hughes has managed to snap a few significant streaks already in his tenure as head coach of Bradford City.

Interestingly, this will be the second time the two have played at Brunton Park on a Boxing Day in three years. Last time out, a goalless draw spelled the beginning of the end for 'boring' manager Gary Bowyer, while defeat in January 2022 was one of the final nails in the coffin of Derek Adams' Bradford City career.

While the omens don't favour Bradford City managers of late, Mark Hughes is the best-performing Bradford City manager in years.

Carlisle United 2022/23:
Paul Simpson could field up to four ex-City players in a potentially feisty Boxing Day clash

Carlisle United's Callum Guy may have been the only ex-Bantams player to start the recent game against Northampton Town, but Paul Simpson was able to introduce in another two in the form of Jordan Gibson and Jamie Devitt. Omari Patrick, another ex-City player, is also drawing closer to a return to first team action according to assistant manager Gavin Skelton, although this weekend might still be too soon for the pacey winger.

One player that definitely will not feature is forward Ryan Edmondson. The ex-Leeds front man dislocated his shoulder against Northampton Town, and will not partner hot shot Kristian Dennis (a long term Bradford City target) in attack.

Speaking of Dennis, 11 league goals from 19 league starts is a level of form only bettered by City's Andy Cook ahead of this crucial Boxing Day tie. The 32 year old is thriving this season under Paul Simpson, with midfielders Callum Guy and Owen Moxon the joint next highest scorers (alongside Edmondson) with 3 goals. Carlisle United have plenty of players with 1 or 2 goals each, but Jamie Devitt is not one of them. The attacking midfielder has managed just 3 substitute appearances this season, and has already made himself a figure of controversy allegedly having been punched against Walsall!

Whether or not Paul Simpson employs any sort of psychology by starting Carlisle United's zealous ex-City players (who tend to perform well against The Bantams) remains to be seen.

Worryingly for Bradford City fans, Carlisle United tend to have been at their most dangerous in terms of goals scored when they have had less of the ball. A 4-1 win away at Salford City, as well as a 3-0 home win over Doncaster Rovers saw the club enjoy just 36.9 % and 40.8 % of possession respectively. A 3-3 draw at Harrogate and a 2-0 away win at Tranmere Rovers also saw them limited to sub-40 % possession, indicating that Simpson sets up The Cumbrians to counter-punch possession-heavy sides.

Mark Hughes' men will need to avoid becoming the latest victim of Simpson's counter attacking tactics.

Bradford City 2022/23:
A long break has left a sour taste in the mouths of Bradford City fans

It will have been three weeks, two days since Bradford City last played a fixture this season should the Boxing Day fixture actually go ahead as expected. That's a significant period of inactivity to follow on from a season-worst run of three straight defeats in league and cup.

While Hughes would have preferred to face strugglers Gillingham and Rochdale in a bid to bounce back, a cold snap ensured neither game took place. While there is nothing in the forecast to suggest this game will be in any jeopardy, it will be frustrating to be faced with such a potentially difficult encounter after such an unhappy six week period following the mid-November victory over Sutton United.

Still, if Bradford City are to bounce back, the focus must be on their own performance rather than attempting to rely on that of their opponents. Goals have been the missing element in the last couple of games, with only a last minute consolation penalty from Andy Cook troubling any of Northampton Town, Salford City, or Leyton Orient. That has to improve here, and all eyes will be on wingers Scott Banks and Tyrique Wright, as well as a misfiring midfield trio of Richie Smallwood, Alex Gilliead and Harry Chapman - who have managed just 1 goal between them since 13th August.

It cannot be a case that if Andy Cook does not score, Bradford City do not win, yet that is the exact scenario that has unfolded in every League Two win since a 2-0 home victory over Newport County on that aforementioned date.

Will there be an additional creative edge to Bradford City's performance after three-plus weeks out? Or will Bradford City fans have to endure yet more misery at a ground they have not won at since 1985?

Let's hope for a belated Christmas present this year...

Highlights:

Bradford City 1 – 3 Northampton Town



Leyton Orient 3 – 0 Bradford City



Carlisle United 1 – 1 Sutton United



Northampton Town 2 – 1 Carlisle United



Outlook:

One interesting statistic is that Carlisle United manager Paul Simpson and Bradford City manager Mark Hughes were both appointed in their current roles within a day of one another – Simpson took the reins for a second time at Carlisle United on the 23rd February 2022, while Mark Hughes took over Bradford City the following day.

10 months and 2 days on, and the two have enjoyed a virtually identical win percentage of 40 % for Hughes, 40.5 % for Simpson (Simpson has won 1 more game with Carlisle, although the Cumbrians have played 2 more in total, effectively negating the difference) . What's more, the two clubs are almost inseparable in terms of league performance this season, with Carlisle United ahead on goal difference alone, while having played 1 additional league game. That said, this game marks a crucial encounter between two sides vying for the play off spots, having both performed poorly in cup competitions this season.

Neither team are on particularly good form right now either, with Bradford City having won just 3 in their last 13 matches, while Carlisle United have won just 3 of their last 11.

Carlisle United are the division's draw specialists with a uniquely high 9 league draws, but have managed to score (6) and concede (3) more than The Bantams. Despite this, it's Bradford City who have enjoyed the more prolonged periods of form (both good and bad), while Carlisle United have tended to be a little more erratic in terms of outcomes, winning no more than 1 or 2 games at a time. Conversely, Bradford City's longest winning streak this season is 4 games.

For better or worse, neither side have won any of their last 3 games in any competition. Carlisle United have not won at home in the league since the 15th October, while Bradford City have enjoyed two away league wins during that same period.

After a heavily disrupted December schedule, Carlisle United were defeated at Northampton Town this past Tuesday night, the only game either has played since 3rd December.

Rustiness may play a factor; but as might a prolonged period of focus on potential improvements... while it's hard to predict a game being played under such unusual conditions, the safest bet is probably a draw – though if Hughes is to avoid the curse of Brunton Park that has plagued recent Bradford City managers, only a win might suffice...

That said, let's back The Bantams to turn it round and consolidate themselves in the play offs once more, having dropped to 8th due to inactivity. What a morale boost this could be...

Odds:

29/20: Carlisle United
21/10: Draw
2/1: Bradford City

Predicted Outcome (THE VOICE):

Carlisle United 1 – 2 Bradford City