The Voice - Match preview Bradford City vs Gillingham Saturday 6th April 2024 3:00pm

EFL LEAGUE TWO FIXTURE #42

Saturday 6th April 2024 15:00
Bradford City (15th) vs Gillingham (9th)
University of Bradford Stadium (AKA Valley Parade)

22/23 & 23/24 Results:

28 Feb 2023: Gillingham 0 – 2 Bradford City
22 Apr 2023: Bradford City 2 – 2 Gillingham
16 Dec 2023: Gillingham 0 – 2 Bradford City

Head-to-Head Form: (most recent result first)

Won: 16
Drawn: 17
Lost: 23

Current League Form:

Bradford City: DWLLL
Gillingham: LDWDL

GILLINGHAM

Gillingham currently sit in 9th place, just 2 points behind 7th placed Crawley Town – but the bad news for the Kent side is that Crawley have 2 games in hand further to the 2 points already in the bag. The team directly above Crawley Town, Crewe Alexandra, are 6 points above Gillingham, and also have a game in hand. It’s not looking likely, then, that Gillingham will make the grade with just 4 league games to go, especially when you factor in the other negatives for Gillingham this season: they are the lowest scoring team in League Two, and they have won just 4 of their last 16 games.

The signs are that the season is over for The Gills – but as the old adage goes, until promotion is a mathematical impossibility, there is still everything to play for.

The fact that Gillingham just suffered a 5-goal second half capitulation at Harrogate Town, then, is a puzzler. Gillingham, a goal to the good at half time and sat in 7th place, found themselves collapsing in the second period, registering their heaviest league defeat of the season. To say manager Stephen Clemence was unimpressed would be an understatement: “You need to do a lot better than that under my watch,” he warned his players, “we can’t have any more days like that again.”

The seriousness of the nature of that defeat left Clemence cursing a familiar pattern. Gillingham have proven they can reach 7th place in the table – that final play-off spot – but time and time again the Gills have been unable to hold on to it. When a crucial game came up with a win badly needed, the players have failed to perform according to the manager. “We haven’t managed to [get a result when we needed], and that tells me a lot.”

Bradford City fans might remember a similar feeling from last season under manager Mark Hughes. Each time the club came within touching distance of the automatic spots, the players proved they didn’t belong. Now it’s Stephen Clemence’s turn to look at his squad and ponder how he might improve it for next season should they (almost inevitably) fail to make the top 7.

One thing Gillingham have had going for them this season has been their away record. With 9 wins from their 21 away days, Gillingham sit 8th in the ‘Away’ league table – again, not quite good enough to expect to involve themselves in the play offs (mainly due to a lack of draws on their travels), but better than most. Only Mansfield Town have won more games on the road than Gillingham this season.

But it’s goals that will be the story of the campaign. A team hoping for promotion simply cannot be the single lowest scoring side in a division – it’s too much to ask of a defence, which also explains why they have one of the worst goal difference statistics as well. Only the bottom 5 have performed worse in terms of goal difference, with Gillingham on a concerning -12 at this stage of the season. While they were able to make a strong start relying primarily on 1-0 wins, it wasn’t going to last. Right up until mid-January, Gillingham had drawn just 2 league games all season, alternating wins and costly losses (including a 2-0 defeat at home to Bradford City), before the stalemates started to set in. Since January 20th, Gillingham have gone from 2 draws all season to drawing 7 of their next 16.

Stephen Clemence will certainly feel partly responsible for that switch, as his appointment on 1st November, which followed Neil Harris’ dismissal the month prior, never really looked like accomplishing that which it was intended to do. Gillingham are perhaps harder to beat under Clemence, but they’ve also recorded fewer wins relatively speaking. His mind will quickly change to the Summer transfer window if his Gillingham players let him down again, and it’s likely he’ll make plenty of changes having identified those lacking the strength of character to launch a real assault on promotion.

At the front of his mind must be goals. That defender Conor Masterson is the club’s joint highest league goalscorer this season with 6 speaks volumes. Huddersfield Town loanee Connor Mahoney joins him on that tally (6), with forwards Oli Hawkins and Macauley Bonne enjoying just 4 goals each. Tim Dieng, a former Bradford City player, has managed only 3 league goals, the same number as George Lapslie. Offensively dismal, then, on erratic form, and having their character questioned openly by the manager, Gillingham either recognize the urgency of a return to form or things might get worse before the season is out.



Harrogate Town 5 – 1 Gillingham

BRADFORD CITY

If the above section seems pretty damning of Gillingham’s performance, the stark reality is, Bradford City have performed significantly worse this season. Currently 6 points and 6 places worse off, only the most hardened optimist would consider City as outside contenders for a top 7 finish. With 15 points to play for and a full 8 off the pace, the Bantams could yet argue they’re in a similar situation: if they win every game, they might have the slightest of chances – but, like Gillingham, there is nothing to suggest such a run is on the cards.

Things have improved since that abysmal four-game run effectively consigned City to yet another season in the fourth tier, a 2-0 win over Tranmere Rovers on a truly terrible surface followed a promise from chairman Stefan Rupp that he would address the issues affecting City’s performance. The players, though, failed to follow that up at relegation-threatened Grimsby Town, barely eeking out a 1-1 draw courtesy of a last minute penalty converted by captain Richie Smallwood – damningly, Smallwood’s first league goal of the entire campaign.

The penalty, though, absolutely was a penalty, as Brad Halliday was hauled back with an inviting cross and an open goal otherwise coming his way. 1-1 seemed like the right score, but the game was nothing short of dire. It wasn’t even down to Grimsby Town playing a frantic style of football, which might have been understandable given their league position and potential situation. Sutton United look set to leapfrog them in the table if they can keep up their winning ways, which would leave a two-team shoot out for 23rd place – assuming Forest Green Rovers are unable to string together some wins. But if Grimsby Town are destined for a shoot out with Colchester United, the game against City didn’t feel as desperate as it might. It just felt poor quality.

With a few injuries to contend with, including to top scorer Andy Cook, Graham Alexander has had the chance to run the rule over players like Tyler Smith and Bobby Pointon, but neither shone at Blundell Park. Pointon, who played particularly well against Tranmere Rovers, might be the home town hero that can galvanize City at Valley Parade, but it doesn’t seem to be translating quite as well to his away performances. We’ll see if Graham Alexander spots a potential pattern, or simply reverts to type by dropping the youngster in favour of the likes of Tyreik Wright, Harry Chapman, Jamie Walker, and maybe even Andy Cook if he’s fit enough to play.

Other than that, there is not a lot to say about Bradford City at this point. Stuck in League Two purgatory, City will need a miracle to have any say in the play off race, but at least they’re mathematically safe from relegation out of the EFL. Now Graham Alexander, like Stephen Clemence, will turn his attentions to the 24/25 campaign, and we’ll see how the new appointment of Head of Football David Sharpe works out. Let’s hope next season is a better one than this one, which has been the very embodiment of mediocrity.



Grimsby Town 1 – 1 Bradford City

 

THE BREAKDOWN

5/4: Bradford City
9/4: Draw
23/10: Gillingham

Gillingham may make several changes after Stephen Clemence said nobody would have the right to knock on his door if he did just that following Friday afternoon’s abject 5-1 defeat to Harrogate Town. Whoever plays, Clemence seems pretty firm that they will be playing for their future, believing his squad lack the character needed for an all out promotion push.

How all of that leaves Saturday afternoon’s game on a cabbage patch of a pitch remains to be seen. By all accounts, both sides have the potential to throw in the towel and dream of brighter days on a far flung beach somewhere – but the long-suffering Valley Parade crowd deserve much better than another phoned in performance.

Can either Graham Alexander or Stephen Clemence drag a good game out of their players, some of whom are very likely to move on in the Summer? Honestly, it seems unlikely. The feel-good factor at Valley Parade that followed Stefan Rupp’s open letter led to a string of… correction: led to just 1 win, over a side that visibly struggled on one of the worst surfaces in the EFL currently. Gillingham aren’t stringing performances together either, and both sides have been very disappointing in front of goal all campaign – Gillingham being the worst of the worst in terms of goals scored, but, in truth, with Bradford City barely ahead of them for most of the campaign.

0-0 would seem like a sound bet based on that information, but neither side have experienced many of those! Often, odd goals here and there have settled ties, with 1-1 being a much more prolific scoreline. For their part, Bradford City have endured 9 1-1 draws in all competitions this season, while Gillingham have seen the same outcome 5 times – and that’s considering how infrequently they were drawing games in the first half of the season.

The pick then, is fairly straightforward. An uninspiring end-of-season 1-1 that could put both teams out of their misery in terms of any lingering, last gasp hopes of making it to the top 7.

PREDICTION:

Bradford City 1 – 1 Gillingham