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Are we bad enough to actually go DOWN next season??

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by SteveC, Mar 21, 2024.

  1. SteveC

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Extremely unlikely this season I know, but if nothing changes within the club hierarchy then I can only see one outcome next season. Points to stay up in the last 9 seasons (showing 1 point above 2nd bottom):

    14-15: 42
    15-16: 35
    16-17: 47
    17-18: 47
    18-19: 42
    19-20: 24 (short season)
    20-21: 46
    21-22: 39
    22-23: 44

    I reckon late 40's this season due to FGR & Sutton finally making a fight of it

    And then moving on from that, if we did go down, what then? Almost certainly another administration. There will be a fraction of the income we get now, meaning the costs to rent the ground become unsustainable (that word will kill Sparks...). The snowball effect from that - well, I dread to think
     
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  2. Birky Bantam

    Birky Bantam Impact Sub

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    I highly doubt it will be late 40's to stay up this season, I don't see how 2 of the bottom 3 get 15+ points from the remaining games (Colchester 10, FGR 8, Sutton 7). All 3 of them still have Stockport to play and FGR have an awful end with them to play all of the top 5 plus Morecambe & Notts County.

    As for us next season, it's impossible to say at this stage as we have no idea which players will be kept or let go. Things can turn around very quickly, I doubt anyone at Salford this time last year or even when they lost to Stockport thought they would be 20th but a bad summer window destroyed the squad. Likewise this time last year I'm not sure many Crewe fans thought they would be in the race for top 3 a year later when they were sat in 18th.
     
  3. Onside

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    The latter part of this season has been relegation form.
     
  4. BearBantam

    BearBantam Fringe Player

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    You're correct the Ground is becoming the potential issue that will actually sink us, and one that most of L2 clubs do not have to the same extent. Potentially a really good revenue earner, or a lead weight around the neck. Without a turn around in direction soon, it is going to become the latter for the next season and beyond.

    Financial times have changed significantly and it is no good harking back to times of yore thinking only 6K - 8K fans paying to be in there will be ok. That is unless Flamingo land reverts the rent to what it was 10 years ago, and we get a lucky tax break from the government, and other overheads suddenly decrease to 1990 levels.

    In direct regards to the scenario in your post, the Club would be better leaving VP and ground sharing locally if it wants to stay afloat.
     
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  5. Loyalbantam

    P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    We are safe this season but with half the budget next season and unlikely to attract good young PL loan players next season due to the awful playing surface I think there is a very real risk of going down next season.
    At that point we enter administration and so a points deduction and possible relegation to NPL.
    Staying at VP is absolutely out of the question so what next?
    And I re-iterate the implications of fans walking away from the club now. Some won’t care because they have other things to do or are new fans not yet with C&A blood but there’s a hardcore of 5000-6000 who will be deeply affected by the disappearance of this club from their lives.
     
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  6. Manningham bantam

    Manningham bantam Impact Sub

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    Headline on back of the T&A 'We can't chuck in season now'

    Lol.
     
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  7. Dennis

    Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Get real Simon! :confused:
     
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  8. Petrov

    Petrov Squad Player

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    Edited for accuracy ;)
     
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  9. Captain Grumpy

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    Well it’s definitely been grim for us in 2024. P14 Pts16. That sort of form throughout a season would keep our heads above water but with a slashed budget next season we could find ourselves in a sticky position.
     
  10. Captain Grumpy

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    If staying at Valley parade is absolutely out of the question as you state, where are you suggesting that we play ? Odsal would no longer be suitable for league football as it’s massively worse than it was in the mid 1980s and it wasn’t really suitable then. Leeds and Huddersfield wouldn’t entertain us and it would cost a fortune to build a new ground.
     
  11. SteveC

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    You say it depends what players come in & out... well given the horrendous decision by Sparks to give contracts to most of the current failures til Summer '25 & summer '26 plus the reduced budget then I can't see much change whatsoever, except the quality of football which will be even worse than now (if possible)

    In any case, history tells us it doesn't matter a toss what players or managers are signed, we continue to seriously underachieve in L2. Our past finishes since being relegated back to this level have been 9th, 15th, 14th, 6th, and probably end up 19th or 20th this season realistically, and the amount of players, managers & staff coming & going in that time and the amount of money spent will be at eye watering levels...
     
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  12. SteveC

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    And forget Halifax. Their pitch last night is almost as bad as ours
     
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  13. Captain Grumpy

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    Absolutely they’ve had far more postponements than we’ve had this season.
     
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  14. Loyalbantam

    P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    That’s my point, as a non league club or even where we are with half the budget, Valley Parade is unaffordable and so without a viable option to groundshare, we will go bust.
    Can anyone else think of another scenario without Rupp buying the ground or injecting more money to cover the rent?
    I can’t
     
  15. andyc

    P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    Hopefully , we some how manage to clear most of the dead wood, allowing GA space to bring in players with more fight than the bottlers we currently have, not all but plenty. We are not asking city to sign the most gifted of players in the football world, just ones that show determination and courage every game to try and win, not just give in because you concede a deflected goal and then hit the post yourselves, which is what i felt happened the other night. They really do feel sorry for themselves.
    To help the cause , we do need to get the stadium back in the clubs hands, the £9000 per week rent is a millstone and i can not see any viable alternative to Valley parade.
     
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  16. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    I don't think we'll go down, no.

    I honestly think it's pretty difficult to get relegated from this division, look how bad the bottom 3 or so have been this season. Absolutely hopeless.

    Obviously I don't know what team we'll have, but unless we have a horror show to start with and Sparks sacks GA in typical style with no plan, and somehow we just can't get going then our future is just more mediocrity imo.

    20th is the lowest I could possibly see.
     
  17. Loyalbantam

    P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    Forward this post to the following clubs and see if they were all saying the same at the time
    Scunthorpe
    Rochdale
    Oldham
    Hartlepool
    Stockport
    Wrexham
    Luton
    Chesterfield
    York
    Bristol Rovers
    Mansfield
    Notts County
    Yeovil
    Torquay

    the list goes on
     
  18. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    I don't know if they were saying that or not.

    I mean, don't get me wrong, getting rid of Sparks and appointing a more serious candidate or two to the boardroom would give us some more breathing room, though.
     
  19. Stafford Bantam

    Staff Member Moderator P.L. 20/21 Top 30 Supporter

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    The non-league leagues are full of ex-League clubs, many of whom thought they were too good to go down.
     
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  20. Onside

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    I think we are short of cash right now! They need ST sales or otherwise Rupp will have to prop us up or not. There is something going on I can just sense it. The take up of ST is probably freaking them out and so it should. The selling of a club takes months so that isn’t an instant solution and we can’t not pay our way aka Reading who received a point reduction.

    If I was Rupp I would suspend ST sales and offer a 10 match ST or lower that way ppl are not committed longer than it takes to sell the club.
     
    Bantamsteve, vladimir and Mal Content like this.

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