The Voice - Match preview #9: Morecambe vs Bradford City Tuesday 1st October 2024 7:45pm

EFL League Two Fixture #9
Tuesday 1st October 2024 19:45
Morecambe (23rd) vs Bradford City (13th)
Mazuma Mobile Stadium (AKA Globe Arena)

Record:

Games Won: 10
Games Drawn: 5
Games Lost: 6

Last 5:

01 Jan 2020: Bradford City 1 – 0 Morecambe
16 Feb 2021: Bradford City 2 – 1 Morecambe
08 May 2021: Morecambe 2 – 0 Bradford City
19 Aug 2023: Morecambe 3 – 0 Bradford City
26 Dec 2023: Bradford City 2 – 2 Morecambe

Morecambe:

Bradford City will head to another unhappy hunting ground just days after losing – yet again – at Harrogate Town. Morecambe’s Mazuma Mobile Stadium has seen the Bantams concede 5 with no reply across their last pair of outings on the West Coast, and things look even more ominous as it seems Derek Adams’ strugglers are beginning to develop some backbone after ending a run of 5 straight league defeats at the start of the campaign by embarking on a 3-game run of draws.

Morecambe ended their calamitous start by staging a manful fight back against Colchester United in mid-September. After leading early, Morecambe found themselves down to 10 men when former Bantam Luke Hendrie was given his marching orders in the 42nd minute. All looked lost when Colchester United rattled through past the Shrimpers across the next 25 or so minutes, but an 83rd minute penalty and an 88th minute own goal rescued the unlikeliest of points for the EFL’s most off-form club.

Then, Morecambe went some way to repeating the feat at local rivals Fleetwood Town, this time staging a fight back after trailing 2-0 at the interval. Another former Bradford City defender got them on their way when Yann Songo’o halved the deficit, and substitute Hallam Hope scored a rare chested goal to once again salvage a point.

On Saturday, the roles were reversed, with Morecambe this time defending an early lead given by yet another ex-Bantam in Lee Angol, only for (ANOTHER) ex-City player in Matty Platt to pop up with a 79th minute equaliser. 3 draws in a row, all coming in different manners, but one thing is clear – Adams is slowly starting to turn Morecambe round, and they will now be looking to go one better and claim their first league win of the season.

While Morecambe were a distant second-best against both Colchester United and Fleetwood Town for long periods, the statistics were much more favourable in a tougher-looking fixture against Notts County. With no fewer than 8 shots on target (and just 1 off target), Morecambe matched their opponents in the stat that matters most: efforts on goal. Notts County also managed a full 9, but managed just 4 on target, and might feel fortunate to have taken a point despite predictably seeing much more of the ball. A late effort from Jamie Stott looked to be over the line before being cleared, but was not given by the officials, and Morecambe trudged off feeling they had been denied a rightful winner.

That a Notts County community page describing the action bemoaned ‘a strong of fouls that disrupted [County’s] momentum’ might sound unwelcomely familiar after City suffered a similar onslaught from AFC Wimbledon at home recently, and the late dismissal of Kayden Harrack for a second yellow card for his protestations shows Morecambe may be suffering early disciplinary issues amid a ‘us vs the world’ siege mentality. Derek Adams’ Morecambe (18 yellow, 2 red) find themselves the 4th worst offenders in the ‘Discipline League Table’, though in reality they have received fewer yellow cards than Tuesday night’s opponents Bradford City (21 yellow, 0 red).

One statistic former City manager Derek Adams always liked to point to was xG. Morecambe find themselves 4th bottom in the current xG table, signifying that they have been struggling to carve out meaningful opportunities this season, and the stats show that even then they have been badly underperforming with an xG vs Actual Goals stat of -0.37. Struggling to create chances and fluffing the ones you do make does not seem like a recipe for success, but at least Derek Adams can point to improved performance in recent weeks.

Morecambe 1 – 1 Notts County



Fleetwood Town 2 – 2 Morecambe



Bradford City:

Bradford City’s league form deteriorated further on Saturday afternoon with a dismal 2-1 defeat to struggling local rivals Harrogate Town. A shock defeat per practically every metric outside of recent struggles against that particular club, City can walk away feeling they fully deserved defeat after managing just 1 shot on target – the goal Andy Cook scored after robbing former City defender Anthony O’Connor and finishing neatly.

Capitalising on opposition defensive errors is now proving to be one of the most reliable routes for a goal, which, while pointing to an effective high press, calls into question the side’s ability to create opportunities from open play.

Bradford City’s previous league goal came in a similar 2-1 defeat at Walsall. Jamie Walker was able to rob one of the Saddler’s defenders, before crossing for Olly Sanderson to finish neatly. Against Carlisle United, Andy Cook was the beneficiary of another fine Jamie Walker press-and-assist, though Cook’s eventual winner was one of City’s own creation, but that makes just 1 goal from creative play in City’s last 4 games.

That is a statistic that does not bode well for Bradford City’s attempts to climb back up the table, especially as they struggle to keep clean sheets at the back.

Perhaps even more worrying is Graham Alexander’s performance last season where he oversaw lengthy periods of form – both good and bad – that fluctuated between 5 and 6 game winning runs, and separate patches of 7 and 8 games where his side would win just 1 game.

While City’s form this season hasn’t been as consistent as that (for better or worse) this campaign, there is a worry City may have already entered another extended poor run of form. Taking the Mansfield Town EFL Trophy victory out of the equation, City’s form now accounts for just 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats across their last 5 league outings. Defeats on the road to Grimsby Town, Walsall, and now Harrogate Town will have alarm bells ringing amid the City faithful, and justifiably so.

A trip to Morecambe may look like a fine opportunity to pick up a rare away win against a struggling side on paper, but the Shrimpers’ improving form and displays of real resiliency might point to a more negative outcome. As one side scraps for every point, the other sees it’s form deteriorating to the point that poor results away from home are starting to become the expectation.

Morecambe’s Globe Arena is not one that Bradford City fans will be looking forward to with great confidence given the plethora of ex-City players amid their ranks – as well as an unpopular former manager who will look to humble his former side on home soil once again.

The chant from Harrogate Town was “it’s happened again”. Morecambe will have every right to sing the same thing if they get off to a good start against Graham Alexander’s men on Tuesday evening.

Harrogate Town 2 – 1 Bradford City



Bradford City 0 – 0 AFC Wimbledon



Prediction:

It’s already getting to the point where an examination of the manner of Bradford City’s goals – and wins – aren’t pointing to a team who have started the season on top form. Despite that, Bradford City have still had a far better start than Tuesday’s rivals Morecambe. Having been in the top half for the entire season so far, it will be of great disappointment to see them now sat in 13th place following a string of 3 straight away league defeats.

Wins over MK Dons and Carlisle United in particular were unconvincing. A 3-1 triumph over EFL new boys Bromley was predicated on an early red card and penalty combination, and though comfortable, will come with an asterisk of sorts. Where is the truly convincing win for Graham Alexander’s Bantams, then?

Any designs on Morecambe rolling over and dying on home turf seem to have evaporated in recent weeks, with Derek Adams instilling a level of fight and streetwise mentality that is making them harder and harder to beat by the game. That they could – perhaps even should – have beaten promotion favourites Notts County on Saturday cannot be ignored. All omens seem to be pointing to a game where the ‘elevators’ of momentum may just pass the point of intersection and make Morecambe favourites to win this game.

One thing is for sure – Bradford City’s travelling fans simply will not tolerate that, and it’s mighty early in the season to invoke the fury of the Bantams fans. Graham Alexander simply must get his players fired up for this one in a way that simply wasn’t evident on Saturday afternoon. Far from making up for last season’s humiliating 3-0 win, the Bantams players found themselves 2 goals down after just 23 minutes against a side that had been struggling to score. Morecambe, for their part, have now scored 6 goals in 3 league games, though their issues at the back are plain as day.

The question now is, do we really buy into Morecambe’s improvements? Is Bradford City’s form really spiralling out of control so soon? And if it is, is that due to the lack of an effective Plan B in the face of so many injuries, especially across a depleted back line?

The pick, unfortunately, will be that Morecambe pick up their first win of the season in a dour, foul-filled affair. That all-too-familiar 2-1 deficit just looks too tempting right now.

Final Score:
Morecambe 2 – 1 Bradford City