The Voice - Match preview #8: Harrogate Town vs Bradford City Saturday 28th September 2024 12:30pm

EFL League Two Fixture #8
Saturday 28th September 2024 12:30
Harrogate Town (20th) vs Bradford City (8th)
Exercise Stadium (Wetherby Road)

Record:
Games Won: 2
Games Drawn: 1
Games Lost: 6

Last 5:
01 Oct 2022: Harrogate Town 1 – 2 Bradford City
05 Nov 2022: Bradford City 0 – 1 Harrogate Town [FA Cup]
29 Dec 2022: Bradford City 1 – 0 Harrogate Town
16 Sep 2023: Bradford City 1 – 1 Harrogate Town
23 Mar 2024: Harrogate Town 3 – 0 Bradford City

Harrogate Town:

A 1-1 draw against Liverpool U21’s on Tuesday night was followed by a penalty victory to clinch an additional point in the EFL Trophy, marking the Sulphurites first outing of the season in that particular competition. The EFL Cup was a tale of two completely rounds, Harrogate Town seeing off League One outfit Lincoln City by 2 goals to 1, before suffering a crushing 5-0 defeat against Championship strugglers Preston North End. Still, losing to a team 2 divisions higher is often par for the course, and Harrogate manager Simon Weaver is likely to be far more concerned about their most recent league result: a 3-0 defeat at Crewe Alexandra.

That defeat could have been even worse after an early Micky Demetriou header rattled the Harrogate Town crossbar, but Crewe will still be very pleased with a result that saw them take advantage of some schoolboy defending to take a 7th minute lead through Kane Hemmings. Just after the half hour mark, Jack Lankester would take advantage of more slack defending down the Harrogate Town left flank, cutting inside and dispatching a clinical finish from just outside the area past Jamie Belshaw. While Harrogate Town did have their moments and did force saves from Crewe keeper Filip Marschall, Crewe were always comfortably better than their adversaries, and a long lofted ball set Shilow Tracey away, and his blocked effort fell to Hemmings to help himself to a second goal to make it 3-0.

It was a poor performance from Harrogate Town, and one indicative of a club that might finally be about to be found out at this level. That said, Harrogate Town have been punching above their weight the entire time they have been in League Two, and must not be overlooked. If there are any ominous omens for Bradford City, it might be Harrogate Town’s improved home form.

After 3 straight losses across all competitions without a single goal scored at the Exercise Stadium, Harrogate Town have now gone 2 games without defeat at home. The recent draw against Liverpool U21’s was preceded by a 2-0 win over high-flying Doncaster Rovers on a Thursday night two weeks back, in full view of the Sky TV cameras.

Described by one fan as the “other Yorkshire derby”, victory for Harrogate over their South Yorkshire rivals will no doubt serve as an ideal appetiser for another potential shock over a side Harrogate Town have held the Indian sign over in recent years: Bradford City.

There was nothing wrong with the industrious nature of Harrogate Town’s opener against Doncaster, Ellis Taylor stooping to get his head on the end of a low cross from James Daly, before Josh March latched on to a long ball, getting between the Doncaster centre backs and finishing scruffily directly before half time.

Doncaster Rovers would end up having the majority of possession and the majority of efforts on and off target but would ultimately be unable to find the net: a rare story for a Harrogate Town backline that have kept only one other clean sheet this season during a 1-0 away win at Colchester United back in August.

It’s goals, though, that are the main concern for this Harrogate Town team. Having scored just 6 times in League Two action (3 of them coming in a 3-3 draw with Accrington Town in their second league match of the campaign), Harrogate have thus far drawn 5 blanks across all competitions, representing a failure to score in 50 % of their games.

When they do score, it has most often been through Sam Folarin (3 in all competitions), with James Daly and Ellis Taylor (2 in all competitions) right behind him in the scoring stakes. Josh March and Jack Muldoon are the only other Sulphurites to have registered a goal in any competition this season, a fact that will be concerning to Harrogate Town fans and coaching staff alike.

Harrogate, while fully capable of proving a banana skin this Saturday, just don’t look to have the attacking firepower they might need to stay afloat in the EFL this season. Will that make it an easy game for City? Almost certainly not. Things just don’t play out that simply in Yorkshire derbies, as Doncaster Rovers found out to their cost.

Crewe Alexandra 3 – 0 Harrogate Town



Harrogate Town 2 – 0 Doncaster Rovers



Bradford City:



The above video should make Graham Alexander’s team talk extremely easy ahead of an early afternoon trip to the Exercise Stadium on Saturday. A horror show 6 months ago saw the Bantams battered and humiliated at the hands of their Yorkshire rivals, and the defeat would end up being one of several results that prevented City from reaching a playoff place despite a good late run.

Several of City’s starting XI remain at the club. Andy Cook continues to lead the line, Tyreik Wright has been playing a deeper role, Jamie Walker and Richie Smallwood are still vital cogs in the middle of the park, Brad Halliday remains one of City’s most reliable players regardless of position, and Sam Walker stays between the sticks. Lewis Richards, equally, might get a start after being restored to the first team following a glut of injuries to defenders. Bobby Pointon, who came off the bench back in the March fixture, has a very good chance of appearing, too, though it remains to be seen if he will start on the bench or as part of the first XI.

It seems clear, then, that plenty of these players have something to prove to a travelling army who suffered nothing short of utter humiliation on the Harrogate Town terraces last time, and a repeat will not be acceptable to anyone in association with Bradford City football club. The way City have started the season, a repeat is also not to be expected.

With only 2 defeats across 10 full fixtures in all competitions, and both of those coming by narrow 2-1 margins, this is not a Bantams side that looks set to roll over and meekly accept defeat any time soon. Graham Alexander has instilled some spirit and fight into his squad, and though the worry will be that both defeats so far this season have come away from home, a trip to the Exercise Stadium should not be seen as anything other than an opportunity.

There are no easy games, but while Harrogate Town are struggling to score, and while Bradford City have significantly better offensive and defensive records this season, this should be a game the Bantams are looking to attack from the off. Against Crewe Alexandra, Harrogate’s last league fixture, some of the defending was positively schoolboy-esque. While Liam Gibson was hauled off at half time for veteran Warren Burrell, and while Simon Weaver will have worked with his team on the training ground to cut out some frankly embarrassing errors, this looks like a chance for City to stamp their authority on the local rivalry.

City have the bigger names, players with the more storied careers, and they are in prime position to launch an assault on the promotion places if they can find some good form away from home. Harrogate Town and Morecambe in back-to-back away fixtures may present challenges in terms of pride and former personnel, but these are the games where Bradford City simply have to stand up and be counted.

They failed last season – time to put that right.

Bradford City 0 – 0 AFC Wimbledon



Walsall 2 – 1 Bradford City

 

Prediction:

Worryingly, Bradford City have been slipping down the xG table in recent games, now sat firmly midtable in 12th place. Their xG vs Actual Goals stat is virtually ‘as expected’ with a very minor adjustment of -0.03, suggesting they are where they deserve to be in that regard – while Harrogate Town find themselves in 17th position with a lower xG and an even worse Actual Goals statistic that represents a significant underachievement (-0.33 to be precise).

Bradford City are also well ahead in terms of points-per-game (1.57 vs 1.00), though City’s away record in League Two is just as bad as Harrogate Town’s home record (1.00 vs 1.00). In terms of possession stats, Bradford City sit 8th with an average of 51.43 % of the ball, while Harrogate sit near the bottom in 22nd place with just 43.43 % of the ball on average.

Such statistics might not be everyone’s cup of tea, and might not make for particularly pleasant prose, but they do serve to underline the broader narrative in this sense – Bradford City are performing better than Harrogate Town on almost all metrics, with the one major concern being the Bantams’ away record. In isolation, City’s away performance is no better than Harrogate Town’s overall performance, but it’s worth remembering that the sample size is still very small, and while the Bantams haven’t looked good in any of their away performances in the League, nor have they looked hopeless.

A realistic appraisal of this game might be a draw. Then again, Harrogate’s improving home performances will intersect with City’s worsening away record, in which case an argument could be made for a Sulphurites win. But short-term patterns aside, overall we are looking at two sides who are settling in to very different-looking campaigns.

Harrogate Town are looking like they will struggle, and that every result is a big ward against potential relegation. Their lack of firepower and mediocre defensive performance overall justify this assessment. For City, painful defeats at Grimsby Town and Walsall, as well as a blank at Salford City, make for dour reading also – but they have a second forward in Olly Sanderson to complement the timeless Andy Cook, and Sanderson seems to be particularly enjoying days on the road!

With two goals in his last two away league games, Olly will be frustrated he has been unable to bag City any league points, but he could be the key to unlocking a Harrogate Town defence that looks susceptible to both long balls and pace. While we might expect Andy Cook to be well marshaled by ex-Bantam Anthony O’Connor, AOC’s defensive partners look less well-equipped to deal with the ‘other’ threat – the Fulham loanee who I expect to be the difference maker here.

Fireworks? Probably not. A simple 1-0 away win will be just the ticket, and that is something league leaders Barrow managed back in late August. If Bradford City are serious about being up there with the best/most on form teams, they must begin to replicate their results.

Final Score:

Harrogate Town 0 – 1 Bradford City