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10-match segments: season 22/3

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by River_City_Bantam, Sep 24, 2022.

  1. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    We go again...

    1st 10: 5-3-2, 16-9, 18

    Home: 3-3-0, 9-3, 12
    Away: 2-0-2, 7-6, 6
    Total: 5-3-2, 16-9, 18

    Leading at HT: 4-1-0, 11-4, 13
    Drawing at HT: 1-2-2, 5-5, 5
    Trailing at HT:

    Leading at any point: 5-1-0
    Trailing at any point: 0-1-2
    (0-0: 2)

    Both led and trailed in same match: Wimbledon (H)
    * * *
    Overall a good start, granted with some things to be worked on. But the points pace is a guaranteed playoff pace (and often an auto-promotion one), goals for and against and difference are good, and we've done this despite some injury problems and the difficulties of getting a host of new players to work together. If the defence can keep us at under 1 goal against per match, that will stand us in very good stead. One does have to hope though that Cook maintains his scoring pace, and/or that others help out more. So far league goals are split evenly between Cook and everybody else, to this point meaning other forwards and the midfield/wingers. It would help to have some goals coming from the defenders as well.

    Today was the first point gained from a losing position, albeit also the first time we threw away a winning position. We do however seem to be spending more time ahead or level than trailing, which makes a good change from the recent past.

    Unlike last year's neutral start, this is the type of start that helps one on a promotion campaign. Trick is to keep it up, but this side does show promise. Nice to be more optimistic than otherwise after a segment!

    RCB
     
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  2. Bantam75

    Bantam75 Impact Sub

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    The stats doesn’t necessarily show the true picture. We should of held out for a draw in the two away games we lost in the last minute, those being Colchester & Barrow. You could also make an argument that we should of won our home games against Doncaster & Crewe had we been more clinical. Had those results been more favourable, we’d be sitting 2nd, 4 points behind the leaders.

    Its a good start. Our Home Form is strong. We conceded more goals today than in our previous 5 home games combined. We also have key players out. Walker being the main figure as we haven’t got a like for like replacement to fill his position in behind the striker

    We haven’t been at our best however. You have the feeling that this team has more to give. That in itself has its pros an cons. The cons being that thought of whether Hughes can utilise an maximise the potential out of the group of lads he has at his disposal. The positive of that statement being that if we are 7th when we aren’t at our best, where could we be once we finally hit our stride?

    As the season goes on, Teams will lose an gain form. Just because Leyton Orient are running away with it at the moment, does not mean they can sustain that for the duration of the season. We’ve been unlucky with injuries to certain players so far, yet we can still see how successful our summer window was, to get adequate cover in each position across the park (barring CAM). Most teams in this division don’t have a squad as stacked in terms of numbers & quality as ours, An I believe that will begin to show in the coming months post the world cup, where we end up having regular mid week games

    To conclude, despite not hitting the ground fully running, I'm still confident that we will be challenging for then title come May.
     
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  3. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    Today's match leads to a 2nd segment that ends up right at the Ronnie Brown comfort level, when it could certainly have been better. As other posters have mentioned, our side is very good at being frustrating, and exasperating...

    1st 10: 5-3-2, 16-9, 18
    2nd 10: 4-3-3, 10-11, 15

    Home: 3-5-2, 12-9, 14
    Away: 6-1-3, 14-11, 19
    Total: 9-6-5, 26-20, 33

    Leading at HT: 8-2-0, 19-7, 26
    Drawing at HT: 1-4-2, 6-6, 7
    Trailing at HT: 0-0-3, 1-7, 0

    Leading at any point: 8-3-0
    Trailing at any point: 0-1-5
    (0-0: 3)

    Both led and trailed in same match: Wimbledon (H)
    * * * * *
    We were at guaranteed playoff pace, and close to auto-promotion pace coming into this segment; now we've fallen behind both paces, though are still well above the comfort line. Most years that does mean the playoffs, but we can't let our pace drop any further.

    We still have a very good away record, almost auto-promotion pace, but the home record is getting into "safe from relegation but start worrying" pace. We are very good with a lead, not so good otherwise, and very poor at rescuing points from losing situations. Goals against remains excellent, goals for remains a problem, in that we rely overmuch on one man.

    We've started heading in the wrong direction; this 3rd segment needs to reverse that before we take up what would probably be permanent residence in the upper-mid-table. The side has the potential for much more than that; is it going to take til next season for that potential to be realised? (The 'poor home form' thread covers that aspect of our results not meeting our potential very well.)

    RCB
     
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  4. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    Typical City. We always go backwards with the clocks changing.
     
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  5. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    Growl.

    1st 10: 5-3-2, 16-9, 18
    2nd 10: 4-3-3, 10-11, 15
    3rd 10: 4-3-3, 11-9, 15

    Home: 6-6-4, 20-15, 24
    Away: 7-3-4, 17-14, 24
    Total: 13-9-8, 37-29, 48

    Leading at HT: 11-3-1, 27-12, 36
    Drawing at HT: 1-6-2, 6-6, 9
    Trailing at HT: 1-0-5, 4-11, 3

    Leading at any point: 13-4-1
    Trailing at any point: 1-1-8
    (0-0: 5)

    Both led and trailed in same match: Wimbledon (H); Rochdale (H), Stevenage (A)
    * * *
    On the one hand we are consistent enough, as the very similar segment results suggest, not to mention the points hauls home and away, but we are not consistent enough at a high-enough level. As it stands, we are consistent at a mid-table level.

    Our defence continues to be solid, for all our grumblings about individual players in it. Keeping the goals-against at or below 1 per match is a more than adequate performance,. But Cook aside, what's in front of them is just not doing the job and so the defence cannot afford even one mistake that leads to a goal-against. We remain good when leading, and bad when trailing. So there is determination enough in the side to hold on to leads, but not enough it seems to overturn deficits. (Though I must say that I don't think any team is going to be particularly good at that.)

    Our current points-per-match pace overall is 1.6, for 74 on the season -- a total that usually gets one into the playoffs -- and on the running 10-match line, 1.5, for 69 on the season -- a total that sometimes leads to the playoffs. Winning three in a row would get us back on guaranteed-playoff pace, but to get onto guaranteed auto-promotion pace, we'd need to win our next 11 in a row. Granted, that's a pace to reach 91 points; usually, 3rd needs fewer points -- the lowest has been 75. If we keep going as we have been, we'll probably continue to bounce around between say 5th and 10th.

    It's turning into another exasperating season. We're improving, but the overall grade is a "C".

    RCB
     
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  6. vin weasel

    vin weasel Squad Player

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    I still think we play a way that will gain enough points over the course of the season .
    Without the things that our out of the managers control like poor refereeing decisions against Swindon and Rochdale and lapses in concentration against Mansfield at home then we would be on around 52/53 points and sat in 4th, 3 points off 3rd with 2 games in hand.
    Hughes and the stats team will know this so will expect that if they can keep the squad fit and on their game then a points total of around 75/76 can be achieved and a play off place.
    Acceptable????
     
  7. Ulysses S Grant

    P.L. 23/24 2nd Place P.L.24/25 Entrant

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    Minimum requirement. I'll happily take seventh now and face a Stevenage side ravaged by dropping out of the top three in the last week of the season.
     
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  8. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    A rather nice segment!

    1st 10: 5-3-2, 16-9, 18
    2nd 10: 4-3-3, 10-11, 15
    3rd 10: 4-3-3, 11-9, 15
    4th 10: 5-5-0, 14-6, 20

    Home: 9-8-4, 30-20, 35
    Away: 9-6-4, 21-15, 33
    Total: 18-14-8, 51-35, 68

    Leading at HT: 13-4-1
    Drawing at HT: 3-9-2
    Trailing at HT: 2-1-5

    Leading at any point: 18-5-1
    Trailing at any point: 2-2-8
    (0-0: 8)

    Both led and trailed in same match: Wimbledon (H); Rochdale (H), Stevenage (A), Grimsby (H)
    * * * * *
    Can't truly complain about a 10-match unbeaten run, gaining 2 points per match over it -- auto-promotion certainly, and sometimes even championship, form. That said, one does wish that some of those draws had been wins... However, if we don't get auto-promotion, the 1st and 4th segments will not be the reasons why.

    Home record looks better now, away record remains very good. Defence remains solid, offence a slight bit better. It is nice to see that of our last 6 goals, 4 have been scored by players not named Cook. If only that had been happening all season long...we'd be in the auto spots now.

    With now 9 away wins and a 10-match unbeaten run, this season gets added to the top-10 lists in those categories, with good chances of rising higher in said lists. (We're one draw away from entering the top-10 lists for most home draws, and most draws overall.) The last time we had an unbeaten run like this was over parts of two seasons, 2015/6-16/7, when we had 15; before that, you have to go back to 1987/8, for another 10-match run.

    RCB
     
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  9. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Good info RCB, let's hope we get at least 20 points from the final 6 games.
     
  10. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    Ta. One may smile knowingly at the joke...but if we win out, and those above us have points deducted... it could, in a way, come true!

    It is nice to be at this end of the table, after too many years at t'other. I'd love autos, but I still think we're more likely to end up in the playoffs. Unless we win our game in hand, and otherwise at minimum match the sides above us in results, we don't control our own destiny.

    RCB
     
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  11. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Stevenage are still 2 ahead of us, and no match in hand - so yeah, we've just got to do the best we can.

    We're also perilously close to finishing 8th, which would be a travesty IMO, but I can't see that happening on account of our recent form. We're very hard to beat, and even if teams like Northampton and Orient beat us again, I still think we're on for top 7.

    Top 3? Now that's a challenge I'm hoping the players relish rather than fear!
     
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  12. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    Phew! Much too close for comfort, but at least the minimum objective for the season attained.

    1st 10: 5-3-2, 16-9, 18
    2nd 10: 4-3-3, 10-11, 15
    3rd 10: 4-3-3, 11-9, 15
    4th 10: 5-5-0, 14-6, 20
    last 6: 2-2-2, 10-8, 8

    Home: 9-10-4, 33-23, 37
    Away: 11-6-6, 28-20, 39
    Total: 20-16-10, 61-43, 76

    Leading at HT: 15-4-1
    Drawing at HT: 3-10-3
    Trailing at HT: 2-2-6

    Leading at any point: 20-6-1
    Trailing at any point: 2-4-10
    (0-0: 8)

    Both led and trailed in same match: Wimbledon (H); Rochdale (H), Stevenage (A), Grimsby (H), Gillingham (H)
    * * * * *
    This could have been much easier had we not turned some wins into draws and draws into losses, but I'll take it. Even with the recent wobbles the defence overall had a very good season -- only the fifth in our history of allowing fewer than 1 goal against per match. Lewis has been a particularly successful signing. The offence has been Cook, despite a few others getting on the scoreboard recently. He's had a season to remember, getting himself into the top levels of our all-time scoring charts: joint 3rd for league goals scored in a season, and joint 5th for total goals in a season (and he's got 3 more matches now to rise higher). Those two players would be my finalists for 'Player of the Season.'

    The season has entered many of our top-10 charts:
    - most away wins (joint 3rd with 11)
    - most successive away wins (joint 2nd with 4)
    - most home draws (joint 3rd with 10)
    - most draws (joint 5th with 16)
    - most successive away draws (joint 2nd with 3)
    - most successive draws (joint 3rd with 4)
    - fewest away defeats (joint 3rd with 6)
    - fewest defeats (joint 4th with 10)
    - fewest away goals against (1st with 20)
    - fewest goals against (joint 3rd with 43)
    - fewest goals against per match (joint 2nd with 0.9348)
    - most away points (3 pts for a win) (3rd with 39)
    - most points (3 pts for a win) (7th with 76)
    - most clean sheets away (joint 1st with 10)
    - most clean sheets (joint 4th with 18)
    - most successive away clean sheets (joint 3rd with 3)
    - most successive clean sheets (joint 2nd with 4)
    - most successive away clean sheets against (joint 3rd with 4)
    - longest undefeated run (joint 7th with 11)

    We also had 2 nice undefeated runs away, 7 matches first, and later on, 9. Both runs should fall into our top-10 in this category. I simply haven't had time yet to go through all our history to make up that chart, but 10 was the record at the time of Frost's book.

    For a season that has been somewhat underwhelming -- the combination of tactics and player underperformance cost us in terms of auto-promotion -- that's an awful lot of entries in our top-10 charts, and just about all of them on the positive side.

    RCB
     
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