10-match segments: 2023/4

New season, new segments, but start off with the same disgruntled growl that marked the end of the playoffs last season.

1st 10: 3-4-3, 11-12, 13

Home: 2-2-1, 6-6, 8
Away: 1-2-2, 5-6, 5
Total: 3-4-3, 11-12, 13

Leading at HT: 2-0-0, 5-1, 6
Drawing at HT: 1-3-0, 4-3, 6
Trailing at HT: 0-1-3, 2-6, 1

Leading at any point: 3-1-1
Trailing at any point: 1-2-3
(0-0: 1)

Both led and trailed in same match: Colchester (H), Walsall (H)
* * * * *
After Cook's goal, we were on a pace for 74 points, most likely the playoffs, despite our early troubles, and a guardedly optimistic summary here. After the match, we're on pace for 60 points, and lower mid-table. And we get a pessimistic summary! We're 5 points, 5 goals for, and 3 goals against worse off than at this point last season. Last season's failings have not been addressed, last season's strengths have not been maintained (granted Cook has been out injured).

This became the sort of segment that cannot be repeated if a side wants to be a playoff, let alone promotion, candidate. It's far too early to say we're out of it, but the next segments have to be much better.

I am usually amongst the last to call for a manager's sacking -- especially when the manager has a league winning percentage of over 40, in more than one season's worth of league games -- but the combination of elements of last season's play, the manner of the playoff defeat, the average (at best) start to this season, the seeming inability of the manager to come to grips with Div. 4 football and players, the continued inability to claw back points from losing positions, the lack of clear improvements to last season's failings, make it very tempting to suggest a change is needed. As last year, this team is underperforming -- the whole is not greater than the sum of its parts -- and the manager has to take a lot of the blame for that. Maybe if one could change all the players...but with transfer windows and limited amounts of good free agents available, that is much easier said than done. A managerial change, as always, is much easier.

On the other hand, who will be choosing a replacement? Until the structure of the club changes, twisting will always be a gamble. That should be an area where Rupp spends some of his money. Surely in his business he didn't personally design, and build, and test, and market, his wares? Put a structure in place where people can do what they're good at, and continuity can be assured. Still, I would not be unhappy if we were already advertising a managerial vacancy tomorrow.

RCB

 

1st 10: 3-4-3, 11-12, 13
2nd 10: 4-1-5, 13-15, 13

Home: 4-3-2, 10-9, 15
Away: 3-2-6, 14-18, 11
Total: 7-5-8, 24-27, 26

Leading at HT: 3-0-0, 8-1, 9
Drawing at HT: 4-4-1, 9-6, 16
Trailing at HT: 0-1-7, 7-20, 1

Leading at any point: 7-1-1
Trailing at any point: 1-3-8
(0-0: 1)

Both led and trailed in same match: Colchester (H), Walsall (H)
* * * * *
Two wins to close it off and this second segment rises from awfulness to mediocrity. Back on pace for 60 points, which is safe enough but a ways off what we'd like to be seeing. Three more wins in a row to add to these two and we'd be back on the Ronnie Brown comfort pace, six more in a row to get back on a guaranteed playoff pace. We now need 'excellent' segments, not just 'good' ones to close the season if we want to be better than midtable.

We look very good with a halftime lead -- though that is a rare thing indeed, we are very bad trailing at the half, and doing alright I suppose when drawing. I hope these last two clean sheets are the start of a trend, that GA gets the defence back to being solid. Similarly with getting into a habit of scoring more than once per match.

RCB

 

1st 10: 3-4-3, 11-12, 13
2nd 10: 4-1-5, 13-15, 13
3rd 10: 2-5-3, 11-12, 11

Home: 4-7-3, 15-16, 19
Away: 5-3-8, 20-23, 18
Total: 9-10-11, 35-39, 37

Leading at HT: 5-1-0, 14-3, 16
Drawing at HT: 4-7-1, 10-7, 19
Trailing at HT: 0-2-10, 11-29, 2

Leading at any point: 9-2-2
Trailing at any point: 2-5-11
(0-0: 3)

Both led and trailed in same match: Colchester (H), Walsall (H), Doncaster (A), Crawley (H)
* * * * *
Another unsatisfactory segment that pretty well confirms our place in the 4th tier next season. I don't think we're truly in relegation danger -- the side is not that bad, and one or both of Sutton and FGR would have to find hitherto unsuspected rich veins of form -- but we almost as surely won't be troubling the playoff let alone the automatic promotion positions.

We're on pace for 57 points, but only 51 over the last 10. We'd need to win 11 of our last 16 to reach 70 points, 13 of 16 to match last season's 76. Can we even win 5 to get over 50?

We remain very good with a halftime lead, though that is a rare thing; we remain very bad when trailing at the half; we do not convert enough HT draws into wins, though it must be said we don't turn them into losses either. Offence remains lacking, defence has slipped a bit.

The Derby and Doncaster cup matches, and parts of league matches, even today's, show we can play well and entertainingly. Pity we cannot do that consistently, even within a match let alone match to match. A frustrating season.

RCB

 

Finally, a reasonable segment, but too little too late I fear.

1st 10: 3-4-3, 11-12, 13
2nd 10: 4-1-5, 13-15, 13
3rd 10: 2-5-3, 11-12, 11
4th 10: 5-1-4, 13-14, 16

Home: 7-8-6, 24-27, 29
Away: 7-3-9, 24-26, 24
Total: 14-11-15, 48-53, 53

Leading at HT: 7-1-0, 21-3, 22
Drawing at HT: 7-7-1, 14-7, 28
Trailing at HT: 0-3-14, 13-43, 3

Leading at any point: 15-2-2
Trailing at any point: 2-6-14
(0-0: 3)

Both led and trailed in same match: Colchester (H), Walsall (H), Doncaster (A), Crawley (H)
* * * * *
Goodbye auto-promotion hopes, but also, goodbye relegation fears. Unless, of course, we do something stupid enough to get points deducted...

If continued over a season, the points haul from this segment would generally mean the playoffs. After 3 poor segments though, it merely solidifies a hold on mid-table. If we were to win the remaining 6 matches, we might still sneak into the playoffs, but I wouldn't put any money on that. We would also need several, not just one, other sides to do very poorly.

With its inconsistency the segment fits right in with the side and season: very good patches mixed with very ugly ones. The offence remains problematic, the defence remains reasonable. A few more goals-for and the goals-against wouldn't be cause for concern. But we have had a hard time scoring for decades now -- the last time we managed over 69 was 98/9, with 82, and that 69 was back in 2001/2.

We remain good when leading at the half or at any point, alright when drawing, and bad when trailing at the half, though somewhat better when trailing at any point. We have trailed in over half our matches so far, though, which is not something you'd expect to see in a side with promotion aspirations.

RCB

 

A very good (5-1-0) final segment to end a very disappointing season.

1st 10: 3-4-3, 11-12, 13
2nd 10: 4-1-5, 13-15, 13
3rd 10: 2-5-3, 11-12, 11
4th 10: 5-1-4, 13-14, 16
last 6: 5-1-0, 13-6, 16

Home: 9-8-6, 29-28, 35
Away: 10-4-9, 32-31, 34
Total: 19-12-15, 61-59, 69

Leading at HT: 10-1-0, 28-5, 31
Drawing at HT: 9-8-1, 20-11, 35
Trailing at HT: 0-3-14, 13-43, 3

Leading at any point: 19-3-2
Trailing at any point: 4-6-15
(0-0: 3)
Both led and trailed in same match: Colchester (H), Walsall (H), Doncaster (A), Crawley (H), Salford (A), Walsall (A)

Managers (league only):

Hughes: 3-4-4, 12-14, 13
McDonald (int.): 2-1-2, 5-7, 7
Alexander: 14-7-9, 44-38, 49
* * * * *
An exasperating season that had its moments, but on balance we were not good enough consistently enough. Perhaps Hughes would have turned it around; I have my doubts. Pro-rate Alexander's record over a season, and you get playoff form -- 75 pts, though the goals for would still be lower than what one would like, and the goals against higher.

We were excellent when leading at the half, terrible when trailing, and had too much of the latter and too little of the former. We were good when drawing, but didn't turn enough of those draws into wins. We didn't blow too many leads, and we did rescue points from losing positions perhaps more frequently than usual, but Crawley at VP really sticks out. If one wants to argue for one match determining a season, then turning that win into a loss is the reason why we're not in the playoffs and Crawley are. Overall though we did fairly well with late (75+ minutes) goals, gaining more points (14) than we lost (8). (Those totals include +2 and then -3 for that Crawley match.)

We'll see how recruitment goes now with Sharpe in the organisation. I guess we have an idea of who's staying and who's going from the line-ups of these last matches. We will again need more goals from players not named Cook; Kavanagh looks like he will help there, Young one hopes would as well. J. Walker got 8 despite the absences; if fit and re-signed there should be 10 goals there; perhaps the same from Pointon for a full season. If the defenders and other midfielders would chip in some more, that would help.

RCB