The Voice - Match preview #10: Bradford City vs Newport County Monday 7th October 2024 8:00pm

EFL League Two Fixture #10
Monday 7th October 2024 20:00
Bradford City vs Newport County
University of Bradford Stadium

Record:
Games Won: 23
Games Drawn: 8
Games Lost: 18

Last 5:
26 Mar 2022: Bradford City 0 – 0 Newport County
13 Aug 2022: Bradford City 2 – 0 Newport County
11 Mar 2023: Newport County 1 – 1 Bradford City
23 Sep 2023: Newport County 1 – 4 Bradford City
27 Apr 2024: Bradford City 4 – 1 Newport County

Newport County:
Newport County’s results so far this season run along classic ‘good at home, bad away’ lines. With 4 wins and just 1 defeat at Rodney Parade, one might expect The Exiles to be sat higher than 9th in the League Two table. But, having picked up just 1 win and a full 3 defeats away from home, it’s not hard to find the chink in the armour of the Welsh outfit.

Owned by former Swansea City chairman Huw Jenkins since October last year and managed by one-time Swansea City Fitness Coach Nelson Jardim, there is a feeling that things might be starting to look up for Newport County. If they can address their miserable away form, they might yet be challengers for a spot in the top 7 having finished in the bottom half in both of the last two seasons. Not since the days of Michael Flynn have Newport bothered the play off picture, when a 5th place finish in the 2020/21 season saw them lose to Morecambe at Wembley Stadium thanks to a controversial 107th minute penalty.

Now, though, they look ready to give it another go.

Bradford City fans will notice that the only win Newport Couty have managed on their travels has come away to the aforementioned Morecambe, a 1-0 win thanks to an Aaron Wildig goal piling the misery on Derek Adams’ men. Either side of that victory, however, have been some very poor results. A 4-0 drubbing at Swindon Town has been followed by a 2-0 defeat at high flying Barrow, though the opening day saw a sickener for the Exiles when a last minute winner from Joel Colwill secured a 3-2 victory for Cheltenham Town at Whaddon Road.

Newport County have deserved their poor record, however. With just 3 goals scored on the road and no fewer than 9 conceded across just 4 fixtures, County fans might not be relishing a trip to out-of-form Bradford City as much as some Bantams fans would expect. There is, after all, two tales behind every fixture.

The previously mentioned Aaron Wildig has thus far been Newport County’s biggest threat, the 4-goal top scorer working wonders from a central midfield berth. Giant striker Kyle Hudlin, on loan from City’s West Yorkshire rivals Huddersfield Town, might not be a natural goalscorer at this level, but he did find the net and grab an assist in Newport’s last game, a 3-1 win over Salford City. That feat was matched by both Wildig and new striker Michael Spellman, signed from Blyth Spartans, a player who has yet to be used in anything other than a substitute role. Hudlin’s near post run to meet a 10th minute corner was highly effective, and City will need to be aware of set pieces throughout Monday night’s encounter.

Other players off the mark for Newport County this season are defender Matt Baker (2) and forward Courtney Baker-Richardson (2), while Cameron Evans, Oliver Greaves, Bobby Kamwa and Kai Whitmore all have 1 goal each.

In terms of xG, Newport County are rock bottom. A miserable 0.79 statistic is buoyed, however, by the fact they have scored more than twice as many as xG would have predicted, making them one of the more clinical sides in the bottom half of the xG table.

Unfortunately for Nelson Jardim’s side, they are also bottom of the xGA statistic – expected goals against – and even then have conceded at a higher clip than would the 1.79 xGA stat would expect.

Bradford City must take advantage of that, though the form table has improved dramatically after successive home wins came on the back of a 3-game losing streak in league competition.

Newport County 3 – 1 Salford City



Newport County 2 – 1 Crewe Alexandra



Bradford City:
Like Newport County, Bradford City have experienced their share of away day woes recently, though they narrowly avoided back-to-back defeats when a late equaliser rescued a point away at struggling Morecambe. Still, defeat to Yorkshire rivals Harrogate Town the game before did not go down well with the City faithful, and the players might be glad to get back to Valley Parade where they have yet to lose a league game this season.

The downside for City is that while they haven’t lost at home yet, they have only won half of their league fixtures down at Valley Parade. 2 wins and 2 draws has City sat in 9th place in the ‘Home’ league table, though 5 of the teams above them have played an extra home game. Goals just aren’t coming easily to City at Valley Parade. It’s a frustrating story, but 5 goals in 4 home league games just isn’t good enough for a side with lofty ambitions. Coupled with a poor away record, particularly defensively, and the Bantams just haven’t got up-and-running this season, at least with any consistency.

The positive for City is they have conceded just 2 goals at Valley Parade, excluding an EFL Trophy game that finished 2-2 against Newcastle United U21’s.

Bradford City fans might not be delighted to pin their hopes at home on a now-ravaged backline recently reinforced by the short term signing of 37 year old Paul Huntington, but it is what it is. The Bantams, to date, have overall been average up front, average at the back, average in xG, and average in xGA.

The one player that has not been average for City, once again, is Andy Cook. Now on 4 goals from his first 9 league appearances, Cook continues to be far-and-away Bradford City’s best attacking threat. Ollie Sanderson has shown some ability to complement him, though his competition for an attacking berth, Calum Kavanagh, is yet to get firing so far this season.

Injuries have no doubt been a serious source of disruption for Graham Alexander, going so far as to force him into a formation change, with City recently going 4 at the back. Absences in midfield, as well, have been unhelpful, but there looks to be enough quality left in this squad that Bantams fans will be hoping for much more.

A win on Monday night will restore a more positive shine to the League Two table, no doubt, and is much-needed after recording no wins in their last 4 league games.

Morecambe 1 – 1 Bradford City



Harrogate Town 2 – 1 Bradford City



Prediction:
Average.

That is what Bradford City have been both in attack and defence this season, and thus they lay claim to a very apt statistic of 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats. 13th in the table, the Bantams are exactly where they deserve to be by almost every metric.

City fans had undoubtedly hoped for more and been told to expect more by owner Stefan Rupp. Coupled with Ryan Sparks’ now infamous comments about accepting mediocrity, and it’s pretty clear the pressure will soon mount on Graham Alexander if he is unable to find a way to get some rather talented attacking players firing on all cylinders.

Jamie Walker, a perpetual pest in the opposition half, Bobby Pointon, a young player more than capable of having an impact (more so from the bench so far this season), Ollie Sanderson, a loan player who has made a very positive start to life in claret and amber, and Andy Cook, one of the best forwards in the division, are all at Alexander’s disposal. Only two players have scored more League Two goals than Cook this season, suggesting that is not where the problems lie.

Perhaps, then, it is in midfield and out wide where the lack of creativity is biting the Bantams in the behind. With left winger Tyreik Wright, one of the Summer’s marquee signings, now able to play in a more advanced role after Graham Alexander dropped wing backs from his starting formation, the onus is on him to get things going. Jay Benn, a loan signing from Lincoln City, has looked impressive and athletic bombing down the opposite (right) flank from right back, though the absence of a natural right winger is a major concern and a significant flaw in the squad assembled over the Summer.

But none of those excuses will be acceptable if City’s home form begins to deteriorate. With little consolation to be found in recent away games, all of the pressure mounts on City’s performances at Valley Parade. Along come a Newport County side struggling away from home – a side who City hammered 4-1 twice last campaign. This is a must-win game for The Bantams, and yet the threat of more and more draws seems to loom overhead whenever home games are considered. AFC Wimbledon and Salford City have both come away with a share of the points this campaign, while Carlisle United narrowly lost 2-1, and Bromley were hampered by an early red card in their 3-1 defeat.

It's time for a bit of blood and thunder at the University of Bradford Stadium, with the gaze of the Sky TV cameras fixed on the players. City must end a 4-game winless run, and if they can’t do it against a side with real away day blues, who can they do it against? City might struggle to score at home, but The Exiles struggle even more to score away. Let's hope it looks like an average home side against a below average away side on the night because that's what the statistics are suggesting...

Anything but a win and there might be early calls for an inquisition.

Final Score:

Bradford City 1 – 0 Newport County