COVID-19

it doesn't and nor did it. It was a comment on the measurements used not on the virus itself.

Since you asked. I had covid after being double jabbed, as did my wife, my eldest daughter got it after her first I believe. All relatively fine.

On the other hand one of my wife's friends died last summer (mid 40s, not particularly fit) and one of my mates has come out of the hospital just this week after spending 2 nights on none evasive oxygen after being triple jabbed (mid 30s and probably a little overweight). My eldest daughter is a midwife and youngest worked in cancer care when the pandemic started.

So overall I've seen the impact of it, from it being slight to severe and how it affects the NHS. It's real, it can be bad, go get jabbed it might save your life. Very few people actually believe it's a "conspiracy" as such, it's more common that people think the balance has swung to far and some the "protection measures" make little sense.

Also though keep perspective. There are misinterpretations of data out there and people from both sides with ulterior motives. I've got a friend who should be coming over from Germany to see his parents for Christmas and is currently considering cancelling because the media have caused him such anxiety over the potential impact of Omicron on his 5 year old. He's tearing himself apart about what to do. That's not good either! Just as it's unquestionable that vivid is real it's also almost beyond doubt that some elements of our society and media want to exaggerate the negatives as much as possible.

 

I'm just going from the ONS deaths per week stats.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

Which are 11,659

11,659 divided by 7 and multiplied by 28 to get 28 day figure = 46636

Divide that by the population of roughly 65 million gives you 0.0007174769

Multiply that by 200,000 and you have 143 people who will die over next 28 days.

That's using the very latest data.

 

Seriously brainwashed.

To the point where they'll defend Boris Johnson and his insane plans even though he and his staff (knowing everything they know) clearly have ZERO FEAR.

But hey, if wearing a mask, locking yourself down, showing your papers, and rolling up your sleeve for an experimental drug injection every six months floats your boat then you keep telling yourself that you're not the one who's brainwashed

 

The vast majority of people don't know anyone who has died OF covid and most people don't directly (ie. not a parent of a mate) who died with covid.

It makes my blood boil that people have undiagnosed cancers, hard working folk are losing their jobs and income, 20 year-olds are committing suicide, young kids are having their childhood ruined, women are suffering increased domestic violence, and many will end up with health anxiety and OCD for the rest of their lives. And all because of a disease where 997 people in every thousand survive it just fine.

 

This is very true, and seems universal. The bad and the negative get most of the attention, the good and positive much less. So rather than emphasising how the various measures taken to combat this virus (lockdowns, vaccinations and so on) are working, we get gloomy projections of how bad it could get, how X had a bad reaction to a vaccine. As you say, this, eventually, turns people off.

I would use Brexit as another example. What confirmed Brexiteers needed to hear were arguments on the benefits of remaining in, not how horrible leaving would be, and how horrible they were as people for wanting out. Unfortunately, we seemed to get much more of the latter than the former. As the saying goes, you catch more flies with honey.

A fair amount of articles have appeared over here, on both sides of the border, regarding people who fell into the 'naysaying' camp, fell ill enough to be hospitalised, but eventually recovered. What they experienced and what they saw in the wards and/or ICUs has certainly adjusted their attitudes. Pity it had to go to that extreme, though. So much of the suffering has been needless.

RCB

 

I see what you're saying mate. Perhaps I am a little reactionary and make assumptions too often - just feel very strongly about certain aspects.

Glad you and your immediate family are ok.

And sorry for the moron comment. I retract.

 

If you knew me you'd know that the last thing I'd ever do is defend BoJo and his corrupt cabal. They've managed to have some of the worst public health AND economic outcomes in tandem through their utter ineptitude. One of the biggest fallacies in this is that the two weren't inextricably linked, that it was either one or the other. Another convenient narrative.

Let's agree to inhabit our respective brainwashed world's eh? You describe mine so objectively that I can hardly disagree. Say hello to Elvis for me cause I'm all shook up.

 

And I'll get some fish with those chips

 

Weirdly the 28 day figure is less than the figure for death certificates that have Covid listed, and that figure is at least 10 days behind the actual death.

 

The Cat is out of the bag. Seems these SAGE projections are politically motivated and highly influenced. Not that many of us didn't know that already.

as for cases aa it doubles every 2 days and were at 200k on Monday we should have 1.6m cases tomorrow, becareful out there...

Expect further distraction btw as Lord Frost has resigned from the cabinet.

 

What political motivation? We've got a prime minister and government who don't want any restrictions. Boris would rather see the bodies pile up remember. If it were politically motivated he'd be asking modellers to predict how to change the average north shropshire opinion or how to get out of the next 1922 committee meeting so that he's not roasted like a chestnut.

As evidenced in the thread the modellers are providing scenarios that include worst case, as those are the ones that decision makers need. Sometimes decisions are based on the precautionary principle, especially where the consequence of inaction are potentially dire. That those scenarios don't always materialise doesn't make the decision wrong.

But back to the first point - this government has always been reluctant to impose any restrictions. A modeller commissioned by Boris would be including common cold severity and an additional £350 million for the NHS weekly.

 

They released a paper on the 13th stating 1m cases per day and supplied it to MPs prior to the votes on Tuesday.

On the 16th after the vote was passed they revised the paper to remove the 1m cases per day.

Tell me that's not politically motivated.

 

Netherlands have announced lockdown from tomorrow

 

Telegraph reporting potential lockdown.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/18/lord-frost-quits-cabinet-boris-johnson-considers-christmas-covid/


Prospect of a second cancelled Christmas
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) minutes released on Saturday raised the prospect of a second cancelled Christmas, after the group called for an immediate curtailment of indoor mixing in order to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.

In a meeting on Thursday, the scientific advisers concluded that waiting until after Christmas to impose restrictions would be too late.

The group described indoor mixing as “the biggest risk factor” in the spread of omicron, suggesting “reducing group sizes, increasing physical distancing, reducing duration of contacts and closing high risk premises”.

It is understood that senior government scientists have suggested to ministers that restrictions on indoor gatherings should last until two weeks after everyone has had the chance to take a booster. That would mean late January at the earliest.

 

I think I speak for everyone when I say get fecked.

No one will be telling me who I can have in my house going forward, especially those who held parties en mass during the lead up to Christmas last year.

As it actually happens everyone who is coming round at Christmas is triple jabbed and most of the people have previously had covid. We will not be following this madness.

 

I've only just seen this - an absolutely insane and frustrating admission. Predictions aren't meant to be accurate, they're there to drive decision making and support those choices whether they're accurate or not?

Isn't that part of the point. Unless you show Johnson just the worse case scenario he'd likely veer away from restrictions.

But that doesn't mean that the modellers should actively avoid showing him the best case scenario. They're incorrectly and purposely affecting decision making (and the fear/outlook of the public) by only showing the most sever scenario and presenting it as if it's the whole range of possibilities. How misleading is that?

 

I think you're being incredibly disingenuous. Covids always been about the number of people hospitalised.

 

Let's be honest we knew it was happening, but to have someone from sage confirm they model based on what the ministers want is an exchange on twitter which is remarkable to say the least.

If policy is decided and then data is provided to support that stance then anytime Boris gets up to tell us what we can and can't do will fall on deaf ears.