Match Thread Notts County vs Bradford City Saturday 18th November 2023 12:30pm

THE BREAKDOWN

17/20: Notts County
13/5: Draw
3/1: Bradford City

For Bradford City fans with ‘big club’ expectations, back-to-back league defeats to the likes of EFL minnows Sutton United and Barrow will have been a very bruising experience indeed. The fact that Tranmere Rovers, one of the poorest sides in the division, also beat City recently is definite cause for Bantams fans to start seriously concerning themselves with a potential drop out of the English Football League – a truly horrendous and abhorrent prospect that many suggest might spell doom for one of the biggest underachievers in all of English football.

While the gap between City and 23rd placed Forest Green is a relatively healthy 7 points, 21st placed Grimsby Town are just 3 behind City – and level on goal difference. At this stage, nothing should be taken off the table until it is a mathematical impossibility, least of all given that City have lost to 2 of the bottom 3, and face the other (Forest Green) in the coming weeks.

Graham Alexander, then, has little time to make himself overly cozy at Valley Parade. Learning about this squad and the players involved must take place at a tremendous pace, as must settling on a formation/first XI. There is, simply, no time to lose.

Going to Notts County as 3-1 underdogs is almost unthinkable, or at least it would have been last season when City were just a couple of games away from achieving League One status under Mark Hughes, while County were fighting tooth-and-nail to escape the National League Premier, (which they did, also through the play offs). Now, beaten-down City fans will look on such a fixture with great trepidation. County boast a fearsome three-pronged attacking spearhead that could theoretically fill their boots against a horribly out-of-form City back line, but then City haven’t always collapsed when faced with the division’s top goalscoring sides.

Under Hughes, all of Wrexham, Stockport County, Swindon Town and Crewe Alexandra scored just 3 times between them across no less than 5 games in league and cup, while Mansfield Town also drew a blank on home soil. Such defensive excellence seems to have been sorely overlooked by a Bradford City fanbase more focused on Hughes’ sides lack of attacking capability. With an out-of-form and injured Andy Cook, Alex Pattison spending much of his time in the treatment room, and Tyler Smith only just beginning to show flashes of his potential, it’s been a long, drawn out first part of the campaign for Bantams fans. That we are now approaching the halfway point of the season and things are getting worse is very concerning.

Will Bradford City, under Alexander Lucketti, be able to show the same defensive backbone as they did under Mark Hughes? Or will this be more akin to a repeat of the 4-1 hammering at MK Dons that could have been so much worse?

In truth, it’s hard to predict: Alexander and Lucketti have had the best part of 2 weeks to instil their own vision of what a City side should look like, but they’ve also lacked critical data having played just one first team fixture in that time. If they plump for tactics that align with what we’ve already seen so far this term, the chances are Notts County knock Bradford City for 6. With a worsening back line, an under-confident Harry Lewis, a toothless front line, and a midfield that works hard yet achieves little, there’s really nothing to take the pressure off a defence that will get asked questions time and time again.

But if Alexander and Lucketti can come up with a new shape and tactical outlook that improves both attacking and defensive outcomes (a huge task, admittedly), City might show once more that they really can compete with the best of the division. With everything to play for and careers potentially on the line, now is the time for Bradford City’s first XI to stand up and be counted. If they can shut out Mansfield Town, Crewe Alexandra and Swindon Town, City could do the same to Notts County – but it’s just not trending that way, unfortunately, and City’s awful form has to be taken into consideration.

That said, County have had a couple of confidence-knocking defeats against top-of-the-table opposition themselves, so might find themselves slightly underperforming here. With that in mind, the pick is a 3-1 win for the home side: not as bad as it could be, but equally, not enough to turn the tide for the Bantams.

PREDICTION:

Notts County 3 - 1 Bradford City