World war 3....

Assuming of course that Putin will take a rational direction when under the pump

 

Looks like a nuclear war incoming, very scary times. Maybe our new KFC crest will be the least of our worries.

 

It is worrying, but that is part of Vlad's playbook. It seems to be the only advice given in Sun Tzu's "Art of War" that Vlad has taken to heart: the superior general wins without having to do battle. Luckily the rest of that work seems to have passed him by.

There'll be several chances to stop any order issued by Vlad from being carried out, and with the deterioration in the relationship between the military and Vlad, it is certainly possible that such an order would not be carried out (though in the aftermath Vlad might well be...). In any case, as the article by Snyder (link in my previous post) points out, and as others have said as well, a battlefield/tactical nuke will not help the Russian cause, and the (most probably non-nuclear) response would be blistering. As Gen. Petraeus and others have suggested, the extermination of all Russian forces in Ukraine would be one component of such a response; a few other Russian assets would likely be taken out as well (e.g. their subs, where "the West" could always look innocent and suggest they all sprang leaks, or had catastrophic pressurisation failures, or the like. Plausible deniability.) One would also expect a non-military component to the response.

Dropping any sort of nuke, tactical or strategic, outside of Ukraine would risk Article 5 being invoked, and again any response would be blistering. India and China, being downwind, may well get involved too at that stage.

Vlad really has no good options left, hasn't had for a while, save perhaps a private jet and asylum somewhere with whatever wealth he can take along. Retirement to his Sochi estate no longer seems advisable.

RCB

 

Well I hope you’re right and your points are very well put.

If you look at evil leaders from the years gone by they’ve all made ludicrous decisions. Hitler invading Russia where his soldiers all died in the freezing steps being one of them.

I do think Zelensky needs to calm it and also his arrogance when a nation doesn’t help then they are obviously in bed with Russia. You can’t say stuff like that, some countries may just want to stay out of it completely which is totally understandable.

Anyone fancy a ticket to Costa Rica?

 

I agree and that is the problem, While under Putin the modern equipment for the troops has been stolen leaving the new troops with gear from the 70s and 80s and nowhere near the modern fighting ability of the troops supplied by the west, Putin is coming under a lot of pressure and the danger is that he may authorize limited nuclear use both to save face at home and to get back in to a war he is losing, Of course he may choose a biological or gas response that has the same effect but less devastation
The popular view by the experts is that he will now wait till next year to boost his production of war materials and train his troops for a huge push, Meanwhile he will keep what he has and keep using shelling etc

 

My concern is it's not their fault, they will die a horrific death, it's not a computer game sadly ...

 

Be interesting to know the real reason as to why Putin thought it necessary to invade Ukraine. He isn't mad like some suggest, he's calculated but based exactly on what? Something definitely pushed his buttons, unfortunately I don't think he thought through what the long game would be. The west will keep supplying arms to Ukraine as long as they need them.

 

It's not. The whole thing is a totally unnecessary tragedy.
It's now become a choice between innocent Ukrainian civilians being killed and bombed out of their homes and innocent Russian young men being blown to smithereens in a battle that most of them have no desire to be in. What a mess.

 

Putin warned Zelensky that he would not accept Ukraine joining NATO and having them on his border, He built up an army on the border over six months while warning of the consequences if Ukraine applied to join, Zelensky ignored the warnings and called his bluff and we are where we are, In Putins world it would be better for Russia to have no Ukraine than a Ukraine in NATO,

 

And unfortunately Zelensky was making the same comments with regards Russia not invading right up to the day they did.

 

He has very long-held beliefs that Ukraine is part of Russia, has no history or culture independent of Russia and should never have been allowed to develop as a sovereign country. He also hates democracy and western culture, believing it to be weak and decadent, so Ukraine's desire to be a part of the western family of democracies is anathema to him. He hates the fact that the Ukrainian public overthrew their Russian puppet government and replaced it with a popular west-leaning Ukrainian leader.
He clearly believed that his army would overwhelm Ukraine in a matter of days and obviously had no idea just how outdated and ineffective it has become. He falsely believed that most Ukrainians were really Russian sympathisers and expected them to capitulate rather than fight fiercely for their homeland and independence.
Because the West effectively capitulated over his previous illegal annexations in East and South Ukraine he expected it to do likewise this time. He's obviously completely underestimated the resolve of the West to prevent him recreating the Russian empire in northern Europe that he wants to do .
On pretty much every level he has got it badly wrong.

 

The mystery to me is that Putin won't accept that NATO only exists to protect the West and we have no desire to extend in to or interfere in Russia's territories or way of life and it should be up to them to co operate with western governments to the benefit of everybody, unless I am being naive ..

 

I think the problem is that Putin and most of his generals and political sidekicks are products of the old USSR, which obviously saw NATO as their enemy. Putin was a KGB operative and is thoroughly steeped in Cold War attitudes.
Many of those old guys, and certainly Putin, have never got over the fall of the Berlin wall and the loss of Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc etc. They believe that it is Russia's destiny to be a great global power, as it was in the USSR days, and deeply resent the fact that the former Eastern Bloc countries have chosen to break free from Russia and become westernised democratic countries.
So, from their perspective, NATO represents the loss of their old empire and the decadent west encroaching on their previous sphere of influence. I think Ukraine wanting to be part of NATO, for its own protection from Russia's obvious designs on its territory (some of which had already been annexed), was the last straw for Putin.

 

Ta. I hope so too. For all its faults I rather like this planet. We've seen what nukes will do, and those were much weaker than what is available today; any use now would -- I certainly hope, and do believe -- require a response that drives it home to the user that a second such use would not be advisable. There is enough firepower available conventionally to make such a response.
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On a happier note: Crimea Bridge is falling down, falling down, falling down / Crimea Bridge is falling down / Happy Birthday!

I've been waiting for something to happen to that bridge; this is a very good start. I suppose it remains possible that it was a Russian job, but I lean towards Ukrainian special forces. Russian resupply of Crimea is now going to be much more difficult; the untouched lanes may well be affected, and who knows how badly the rail line has been damaged. I wonder if this is indeed preparing the way for a third front heading down through Melitopol to the sea. THey have about a fortnight to do it, before the mud season kicks in for a month.

RCB

 

Yes we were saying at the game today we think it’s most definitely the Ukrainian special forces. Kudos to them.

 

On a serious note: I do begin to wonder if the bridge attack wasn't a Russian job after all. Between the military, FSB, mercenaries, and the Kremlin there is enough unhappiness at the moment that it is possible that one faction did this to discredit another. The "truck bomb" explanation doesn't seem likely; I haven't found it yet but it is claimed that there is a lengthier video of the events on the bridge deck that shows the lead car and lorry still in existence after the blast clears, and we know the back car and lorry stopped in time and survived. The explosion occurred between the two pairs of vehicles. An airburst (missile?) or a water-borne explosive (unmanned submarine?) seem more likely, given the blast patterns and effects. The Ukrainians would seem to have the submarine capability at least, but do they have a suitable missile and the capability to deliver it to the right place? I expect that we will, eventually, find out whodunnit, but that might be years away.

Tomorrow's (today's, now) Security Council meeting for Putin could be interesting. I suppose it's too much to hope for that the Council will channel Cromwell and speak as one to Putin: "In the name of God, go!" but Putin's position is getting more and more precarious.
* * *
On a lighter note: Lots of fun to be had over at the historic tale construction kit: https://htck.github.io/bayeux/#!/ Let your inner mediaeval artist run free. I'll take the blame, er credit, for this one...



RCB

 

NATO has expanded a lot over the years and with Ukraine joining would mean NATO was on the Russian border, Putin has said that Russia has not advanced to NATO but NATO has advanced to Russia, Russia do not accept NATO as a defensive alliance only but a potential threat to Russian existence.
Russia was wrong to invade Ukraine and the Ukraine defense is doing remarkable but would just add that Russia always will win if it decides to.

 

The reason that NATO has expanded to Russia's border is because none of the ex Soviet bloc countries trust Russia to leave them alone. So, many of them have, in turn, sought membership of NATO to protect themselves from Russia's threatening noises.
The illegal annexation of Crimea and puppet administrations in Donbas and Belarus only added to the insecurity of former Soviet bloc countries. Putin, and other hardline hawks, have made no secret of their desire to regain some of their former empire so who can blame those countries for joining NATO?
If Russia had democratised after the disintegration of the USSR there would be no need for those countries to join NATO, but it didn't.

 

Listening to the head of SIS the UKs intelligence gathering organization he said that Putin was in trouble with his cabinet because he had not attacked the Ukraine fully and was resisting further attacks and that if they get rid of him which they may the replacement will be more aggressive than Putin, God forbid