COVID-19

Bradfords case rate is quite normal all things considered.

 

Two problems I’ve noticed.

first of all, people are obsessed with what’s happening now rather than what will happen. March of last year is a great example of that. How many deaths could have been prevented if we locked down a week earlier? If I remember it was 13,000 or so? Obviously the deaths will not be as high and hospitalisations probably wont be. Theres capacity for around 30,000 hospital beds with an unvaccinated pop of around 20,000,000 so if 1% requires hospital treatment thats around 200,000 so not so nhs is yet again overwhelmed. I do understand the governments caution.

secondly, your comment regarding being ‘encouraged’ to take the vaccine is an interesting one. Is it not the same for smoking? Where buses and pubs now cannot let smokers indoors? The exorbitant taxes paid on cigs to again ultimately persuaded people to smoke less?

i do not know if you are an anti vaxer but if anyone reading this is, please do some research. Look at scientific papers from accredited sources. Or speak to your GP. If you cannot take it for medical reasons not a problem.

 

What will happen then?

We have near 80% of the adult population with 1 jab, and over 50% with two.

Around 650 deaths have occurred to those under the age of 40 within 28 days of a Covid test.

So what is going to happen? If the vaccine works not much will happen. If the vaccine doesn't work thousands will die, and those thousands won't be younger people when only 650 have died so far (probably with various underlying conditions)

So what is it?

 

No you see your problem is you've moved the posts. I wasn't on about deaths currently. I was on about hospitalisations. And like I said previously, the government’s intention is to protect the NHS. as it stands it would be swamped if the doors were flung open. Also personally would rather the government be overcautious than under.

That all being said i do expect us to move into stage 4 come July. Maybe august if something else happens.

 

I've not moved any goalposts. Before people die they tend to be hospitalised. Last summer with fewer restrictions and no vaccine hospitals weren't full and bodies weren't piling.

In various US states where no restrictions exist they haven't has to go back into any lockdown.

So tell me what will happen?

 

All getting it at the same time are they?

 

Right but you keep going on about deaths? There wont be many if thats your point I never disputed that.

My whole point is the hospitals will be full. Which causes a cascade of deaths in the general population, as people who need treatment cant get it.

so to reiterate. We are in “lockdown” to keep hospitalisations down. Not on about deaths. And again its very likely nothing much would happen. But like i said, its better to be cautious once and be absolutely certain it doesn’t happen again. Instead of opening up now and end up like march last year all over again.

 

No thats true, it wouldn't be at the same time. But regardless its a lot higher than 40,000.

 

Just realised it would be more people as first doses are still going to hospital so actually its more like 40m who could end up in hospital.

 

There have been 4.5m cases in total. They would be shit out of luck if that doubled in a day.

 

Let's take a real world example, say last summer in the UK. People could fly to and from EU countries, people were being subsidised to eat out at pubs and restaurants and there were no rule of 6 and masks weren't required.

So why with 40m people having at least one jab, nearly 30m having 2 and 4.5m who have had Covid so have the antibodies needed would the NHS become overrun this summer?

 

I hope its not a Thursday. I play Badminton then with a doctor, he'll probably be a bit busy.

 

wonder how long that would take with zero restrictions amongst non-vaccinated

 

Try last summer.
Alternatively look at Texas and Florida.

 

1. people who have 1 jab are still being hospitalised. Not as high as without but still are.
2. there is debate on whether people can catch covid again after around 6 months as antibodies arent permanent. T-cells are though.

 

I see you are ignoring the like for like comparison with last year where people were not wearing masks and being subsidised to eat out.

Covid will come back in the autumn winter but most people will be fully jabbed by then. The summer months are relatively low risk, even more so with all the vulnerable jabbed.

Your figures for hospitalised people are pure fantasy.

 

I am asking how long would it take. are cases growing in Texas? what's the testing situation over there?

 

do you not remember needing to lock down in September? and waiting 10 minutes for a response doesn't mean I ignored you calm down.

 

Restrictions in Texas were removed on 2nd March 2021.

Governor Abbott Lifts Mask Mandate, Opens Texas 100 Percent | Office of the Texas Governor | Greg Abbott





Governor Greg Abbott today issued an Executive Order (GA-34) lifting the mask mandate in Texas and increasing capacity of all businesses and facilities in the state to 100 percent. The Governor made the announcement at Montelongo's Mexican Restaurant in Lubbock in an address to the Lubbock Chamber of Commerce.

"With the medical advancements of vaccines and antibody therapeutic drugs, Texas now has the tools to protect Texans from the virus,” said Governor Abbott. "We must now do more to restore livelihoods and normalcy for Texans by opening Texas 100 percent. Make no mistake, COVID-19 has not disappeared, but it is clear from the recoveries, vaccinations, reduced hospitalizations, and safe practices that Texans are using that state mandates are no longer needed. Today's announcement does not abandon safe practices that Texans have mastered over the past year. Instead, it is a reminder that each person has a role to play in their own personal safety and the safety of others. With this executive order, we are ensuring that all businesses and families in Texas have the freedom to determine their own destiny."


I am sure that if Texas wanted to fish for cases and test over 1m people per day they could push their case numbers up, but for what? The risks are acceptable for the rewards

 

September's spike was driven by the return of schools. Schools are already back.