Lost the players, lost the fans

Stick up on here, Can't do with all this secret squirrel sh!t

 

B**ocks

 

It's not bollocks. @River_City_Bantam backed it up with the stats.

 

And the unluckiest with injuries

 

Rubbish I mean penalties for instance Just to name one Vaughan took it round the keeper and was about to stroke it in and he was rugby tackled Lucky? Own goals come from pressure and if it comes off a defender it’s classed as an OG it’s not lucky

 

Again though, that's been done to death. We've had adequate replacements for every injury we've had, barring probably Ismail.

 

And how did that penalty vs Newport come about? The defender passed it straight to vaughan to go 1v1 with the keeper. Complete luck.

And last night's pen? Never a pen in a million years but we got lucky because the referee didn't have a clue.

 

How many of the goals we have conceded come from defensive mistakes. You can’t count that as lucky unless you have an agenda

 

I've got a spade in the garage if you want to continue digging?

 

No I have already dug the weeds up

 

What? How many times have we passed it straight to the opposition to score? Zero.

Or chucked it in our own net? Dunno, maybe once?

 

Don't know what's happened there @Idlebantam got nothing to comment on the injury front.

 

Luck is not purely about the scoring of goals but also conceding, take last night as an example - an extremely weak penalty decision, a couple of shots hitting the post, a failure to finish clear cut chances.

 

What stats were they?

On xG ratio we are sixth best in the league.
On xG from open play we are seventh best in the league
On shots in the box we are ninth best in the league.

Our performances have dropped from before Christmas, when we were higher (around third and fourth) in these charts, but anyone suggesting we have been lucky this year is using bad stats.

People often cite penalties and set pieces as skewing our stats or defensive mistakes gifting us goals.....but that is nonsense. Fouls and mistakes are caused by us applying pressure...if you don't get chopped down and fouled you could have shots in goal in decent shooting positions etc.

 

We need 2 what with our injury and suspension record...

 

https://bantamtalk.com/index.php?threads/sack-the-manager.2946/page-59#post-301594

 

ta for posting.

With all due respect to RCB, who has spent time going through that, I don't think you can use those stats ahead of expected goals stats and shots in the box to say City have been lucky this year.

Penalties get awarded for fouls in the box, so if McCartan isn't chopped down in the box last night, for example, then he has a shot at goal. The chance doesn't get erased from the game if Donaldson doesn't score the penalty. RCB's stats are useful in that they show how many points we've gained from own goals and penalties but they aren't a realistic measure of luck.

Teams who apply pressure and force their opponents into making mistakes will win more penalties and set plays.

Donaldson and Vaughan are two streetwise forwards and, when they have played, they win us a lot of free kicks because they know how to play the game and draw in the mug defenders.

xG is a measure of the quality of the chances you create in dangerous areas of the pitch, as is shots in the box, and both have been shown to correlate well with a teams final league position long term.

They all point to City fully deserving their place in the top seven. They also show our performance levels have dipped of late and we need to kick on again to cement our place in the playoffs.

 

I think if you take the Mansfield home game for example, we did nothing that afternoon, create jack yet two silly challenges from their defender, one being when the ball was going out, got us 2 pens and 3 points. On the balance of play that day, 0-0 would've been fair and I think it's a similar case in plenty of other games this season.

Either way though, it's an argument that's quite split which we will all have our different opinions on.

 

Bad luck...........................not poor football by the defender.

 

We had a good Christmas results wise at least our permances and result nosedived with the return of Doyle