Panama
England
MetLife Stadium hosts the Group L finale, and England will go through as winners with a victory, provided Ghana don't beat Croatia by two goals more than England win by. A draw still gets England through on goal difference, after a 4-2 opening win was followed by a record-setting goalless stalemate with Ghana. Panama, already eliminated after back-to-back defeats, have nothing left but pride.
Panama — Los Canaleros
Thomas Christiansen's side put up a fight in both defeats, losing 1-0 to Ghana and then by the same scoreline to Croatia courtesy of a Budimir strike off the bench. The lineup pencilled in here sticks with the conservative five at the back that's carried them through the group: Cesar Blackman, Andres Andrade, Jiovany Ramos, Jose Cordoba and Amir Murillo, with Ismael Diaz, Carlos Harvey, Cristian Martinez and Jose Luis Rodriguez in midfield and Cecilio Waterman isolated up top.
Adalberto Carrasquilla's adductor injury has ruled him out all tournament and a setback in his recovery before the Croatia game makes a return here unlikely, while captain Anibal Godoy has played just one minute so far through a lack of match fitness. With nothing at stake, this is as much about pride as anything, and Panama's only previous World Cup goals, against England and Tunisia in 2018, are the standard they'll want to live up to.
England — The Three Lions
England set an unwanted record in the Ghana draw, the highest possession share, 78.8%, by any team in any World Cup match without scoring. The lineup pencilled in here has Djed Spence switching to right-back with Nico O'Reilly coming in at left-back, both ahead of the injury-hit Reece James, who's nursing hamstring discomfort. John Stones partners Marc Guehi in central defence, and Kobbie Mainoo features alongside Elliot Anderson in midfield with Declan Rice, managed carefully all tournament, rested for this one.
Further forward, both Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford get the nod after neither Anthony Gordon nor Noni Madueke did enough to justify their places against Ghana, lining up either side of Jude Bellingham behind Harry Kane. England have failed to win all three opening group games at each of their last four major tournaments, but a repeat of that pattern, just a point here, would still be enough to make the last 32.
Predicted Lineups
Group L Permutations
England have an 81.7% chance of finishing top, all but certain with a win unless Ghana beat Croatia by two goals more than England's margin of victory. Croatia have a 12.1% chance of finishing first, requiring a win combined with an England slip-up. Ghana, at 6.2%, need to beat Croatia by enough to leapfrog England on goal difference, though they've already guaranteed qualification regardless. Croatia have all but secured their own spot too. Panama are already out.
Key Battle
Harry Kane vs Panama's back five. Panama's deep block frustrated Ghana and Croatia in turn, conceding just once in each game. If Kane and Bellingham can find a gap the way the earlier sides couldn't consistently, England's win should be both comfortable and emphatic. If not, expect another grind.
Prediction
Panama have nothing to play for and have already shown they can make a side work hard for a single goal, but England's attacking talent, with Saka and Rashford both restored, should find a way through eventually. A repeat of the 2018 scoreline feels unlikely, but a comfortable England win does not.
Panama 0–2 England — Kane, Saka
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