France
Iraq
France can seal their place in the last 32 with a game to spare when they take on Iraq in Philadelphia on Monday. Les Bleus survived a scare from Senegal in their opener, while Iraq were thumped 4-1 by an Erling Haaland-inspired Norway. Opta's supercomputer rates France at a 99.59% chance of reaching the knockouts despite Group I being one of the toughest pools in the draw — Iraq, by contrast, remain one of the longer shots in the whole competition to progress at all.
France — Les Bleus
Kylian Mbappe continues to rewrite the history books. His brace against Senegal made him France's all-time top scorer, surpassing Olivier Giroud, and broke Just Fontaine's record for the country's most World Cup goals along the way — all while reportedly the subject of an online petition, signed by close to 100 million people, calling for him to leave Real Madrid. None of the noise has affected his standing with Didier Deschamps, whose side are now just one win away from an early knockout qualification. Deschamps's men have scored in 14 successive matches, finding the net more than once in 13 of those, though they haven't kept a clean sheet in six straight games following Ibrahim Mbaye's late consolation for Senegal.
France have been managing a defensive quartet of William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, Theo Hernandez and Malo Gusto carefully through the week, though there's nothing to suggest any of the four will be unavailable. Lucas Digne and Manu Kone have both been mooted as potential changes in for Hernandez and Aurelien Tchouameni respectively, and Bradley Barcola — now the youngest Frenchman to score on his World Cup debut since Thierry Henry 28 years ago — has been tipped to replace Desire Doue out wide. None of those three changes are predicted to materialise here, however, with Hernandez, Tchouameni and Doue all expected to retain their places, while Michael Olise is given license to drift inside through the middle rather than stay fixed to the right.
Iraq — Lions of Mesopotamia
Iraq remain without a point in their World Cup history, and after going 21 qualifying matches just to reach the tournament — more than any other side, eventually getting there via a play-off win over Bolivia — head coach Graham Arnold will need a big improvement following the loss to Norway. Aymen Hussein scored at both ends in that game, becoming only the third player to do so in a World Cup match, and was reportedly detained for several hours by US immigration officials in the build-up — between that and the result, it's been an eventful week for Iraq's frontman. Arnold's "double nine" approach of Hussein and Ali Al-Hamadi is rarely abandoned and is predicted to continue, with Amir Al-Ammari the other key man in midfield given he takes all of Iraq's set pieces.
Ali Jasim was withdrawn at half-time against Norway with a knock but has trained fully this week and is expected to be available again if needed. Goalkeeper Jalal Hassan has also shaken off a minor fitness concern, and despite local reports speculating Ahmed Basil could come in following an unconvincing display last time out, Hassan is predicted to continue in goal. Tactically, expect Arnold's side to stay narrow and compact in a 4-4-2, protecting the box before looking to spring Hussein, Al-Hamadi and Zidane Iqbal on the break.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Kylian Mbappe vs Iraq's back line. Iraq shipped four to Norway's frontline, and Mbappe — now both his country's all-time leading scorer and its World Cup top scorer — represents an even sharper threat in behind. If Iraq's central pairing of Akam Hashem and Zaid Tahseen are dragged out of position, France have more than enough quality elsewhere to punish the space left behind.
Prediction
Iraq have scored in nine of their last 11 matches in all competitions, so a goal can never be entirely ruled out, but this French attack has been relentless and Iraq's defensive record against the calibre of Norway's frontline doesn't bode well here. France should have the game wrapped up well before the hour.
France 4–0 Iraq — Mbappe, Dembele, Doue, Olise
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