Turkey
Paraguay
Both sides arrive at BC Place in Vancouver with their World Cup hopes already in serious jeopardy. Turkey — beaten 2-0 by Australia in a result that shocked even the most sceptical observers — must win here to keep any realistic hope of progression alive. Paraguay — crushed 4-1 by the USA — are in an equally desperate position, knowing a third consecutive defeat in the final game against the co-hosts would end their tournament. This is, in every sense, a knockout match dressed up as a group stage fixture. The losers go home with nothing. The winners live to fight another day.
Turkey — Ay-Yıldızlılar
Montella is expected to make a significant tactical adjustment. The biggest change is the predicted inclusion of a fully fit Kenan Yıldız from the start — he was not fully fit against Australia and came on as a substitute, but should now be available to start. With Yıldız in the XI, Arda Güler is predicted to shift into the number 10 position behind the striker, which is arguably a more natural role for him than the wider one he occupied against Australia. That move may come at the expense of Kökçü, who drops out entirely — a significant call given his quality, but reflects the reality that a 4-2-3-1 with Yıldız and Güler both starting in advanced roles requires compromise elsewhere.
Çalhanoğlu and Yüksek continue as the double pivot, and Akturkoglu leads the line. Kadioglu, Bardakci, Demiral and Celik form the back four. The predicted lineup represents a more attack-minded setup than the one that lost to Australia — understandable given the imperative to win. Turkey generated a relatively modest xG of 0.64 against Australia despite having more possession — a stat that underlines how ineffective their attacking play was on the day. With Güler and Yıldız operating together and more fluently, that should improve significantly.
Turkey are one of only four teams in this tournament yet to register an xG above 1.0 in their opening match — a concerning statistic for a side with this much attacking quality. The talent is undeniable; the execution must follow.
Paraguay — La Albirroja
Alfaro is also expected to make changes following the 4-1 collapse against the USA. Bobadilla and Sanabria are both predicted to drop to the bench — Bobadilla's own goal opening the floodgates and Sanabria having a difficult afternoon throughout. Pitta and Enciso are predicted to start as the front two, with Galarza coming into midfield. Almiron, Cubas and D.Gomez complete the midfield four. The back four of Alonso, G.Gomez, Alderete and Caceres stays largely intact, with Gill in goal — notably Caballero is out with a muscle strain and Sosa with an ankle problem, two notable absences from the squad.
Julio Enciso is the player Paraguay fans most want to see given the opportunity — technically gifted, creative and capable of producing moments that nobody else in this squad can. His link-up play with Pitta, who brings pace and directness, gives Paraguay a more dynamic front two than the Sanabria-led approach that struggled to impose itself against the USA. Paraguay managed just 0.62 xG against the USA despite the game being relatively open after the first goal — they will need to be significantly more threatening here.
Paraguay beat this same Turkey in a warm-up friendly earlier in the year, which gives Alfaro's squad a psychological edge worth noting.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Arda Güler vs Paraguay's midfield. With Güler dropping into the number 10 role, his ability to receive the ball between the lines, turn and drive at Paraguay's defensive shape becomes the central question of this match. Paraguay's midfield of Almiron, Cubas, Galarza and D.Gomez is disciplined and combative, but Güler is a different kind of problem to anything they faced against the USA. If Turkey can get him on the ball quickly and with space to operate, the combination of Güler threading passes to Yıldız and Akturkoglu on either side of him could be devastating. If Paraguay's midfield can press him high and deny him the turn, Turkey will struggle to create as they did against Australia.
Prediction
Both sides are desperate. Turkey have more individual quality and the added motivation of having significantly underperformed their expectations in game one. Paraguay's changes — bringing in Enciso and fresher options — give them more attacking threat than was apparent against the USA. But Turkey, with a fully fit Yıldız and Güler both in the starting XI, should have too much creativity for Paraguay to contain for ninety minutes.
Expect a high-intensity, open game from two sides with nothing to lose. Turkey edge it — but this is far from straightforward.
Turkey 2–1 Paraguay — Güler, Akturkoglu — Enciso
⚽ Don't forget to submit your prediction at bantamtalk.com/predictionleague before kickoff!