USA
Australia
The most eagerly anticipated fixture in Group D takes place at Lumen Field in Seattle, where two sides who both won their opening matches — and won them convincingly — meet in a contest that could effectively decide who tops the group. USA demolished Paraguay 4-1, with Balogun becoming only the second American player to score more than once in a World Cup game. Australia stunned Turkey 2-0 in Vancouver, with Irankunda's brilliant first touch and Metcalfe's thunderbolt from distance producing one of the upsets of the opening round. The Opta supercomputer gives the USA a 57.8% chance of victory — but after what we have seen in this tournament already, that figure should be treated with appropriate caution.
United States — The Stars and Stripes
Pochettino is expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 with the key question mark hanging over Christian Pulisic, who has been in individual training for a calf injury and as of Wednesday had not rejoined the full group. If he cannot go — and his participation remains uncertain — Giovanni Reyna is the predicted replacement, shifting into one of the advanced roles alongside Malik Tillman behind Folarin Balogun. The predicted back three of Ream, Freeman and Richards offers more of a two-CB feel with Dest pushing higher as a wing-back, while Antonee Robinson provides the thrust on the left. McKennie and Adams continue in the midfield pivot.
Balogun's two-goal opening performance was the moment this tournament needed from the co-hosts — the crowd at SoFi Stadium erupted, and the confidence that brings to a young squad should not be underestimated. Reyna, if he starts, also arrives with momentum after his stunning stoppage-time strike to seal the Paraguay win. The USA have scored four goals in their opening match and created chances with real quality. If Pulisic is fit, the attacking depth is genuinely formidable. Even without him, they have enough.
USA lead the tournament's expected goals rankings in the opening round with some eye-catching numbers from the Paraguay game — their pressing intensity and transition speed caused Paraguay enormous problems throughout. Australia will be a very different and more organised challenge.
Australia — The Socceroos
Popovic is expected to retain the 3-4-2-1 that worked so well against Turkey, with one notable change between the sticks — Beach is predicted to keep his place in goal over Ryan following his inspirational performance against Turkey. The back three of Burgess, Souttar and Circati stays intact, with Bos and Italiano as the wing-backs. Irvine and O'Neill — the latter carrying some discomfort but expected to be fit — form the midfield pivot.
The predicted attacking shape is interesting — Metcalfe and Irankunda are expected to operate in the advanced roles behind lone striker Toure, who holds his place over Yengi following a convincing performance and a quick return from injury. Metcalfe's goal against Turkey — a thunderous drive from outside the box in the 75th minute — announced him to a global audience, while Irankunda's first touch for the opener was one of the moments of the tournament so far.
Australia are playing with the freedom that comes from having nothing to lose and everything to gain. They set-piece threat — Hrustic is their most dangerous dead-ball deliverer — and their direct, physical counter-attacking game are the tools they will deploy against a USA side who have conceded on the break. Their xG against Turkey was modest, but the goals came at exactly the right moments. Against a USA side potentially without Pulisic, they have a genuine chance.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Reyna/Tillman vs the Australia back three. If Pulisic misses out, the onus falls on Reyna and Tillman to create the quality in the half-spaces between Australia's defensive lines. Both are technically capable, but neither carries quite the same penetrative threat from wide. Australia's back three of Burgess, Souttar and Circati held Turkey's Haaland-less attack comfortably — the question is whether they can do the same against USA's more fluid, possession-based approach. If Reyna can arrive late and find Balogun in the channels, the USA should win. If Australia's defensive structure holds as it did against Turkey, this could be much tighter than expected.
Prediction
Two excellent sides, two perfect records, and one of the genuinely open fixtures of the second round. USA have home advantage in every sense in Seattle — the crowd will be electric — and even without Pulisic they carry enough attacking threat to win this. But Australia are organised, confident, and Popovic's tactical preparation for this kind of opponent has been excellent throughout. Expect a competitive match before USA's quality edges it.
USA 2–1 Australia — Balogun, Reyna — Toure
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