Uzbekistan
Colombia
The final fixture of a remarkable Wednesday kicks off in the early hours at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, where Uzbekistan — making their first ever World Cup appearance — face a Colombia side who arrive as one of the most watchable teams in this tournament. The contrast in experience could scarcely be greater. But Uzbekistan's coach is a World Cup winner, their qualifying campaign was exceptional, and Group K — which also features Portugal and DR Congo — gives both sides a realistic path to the knockout stages if they can pick up a result here.
Uzbekistan — The White Wolves
Fabio Cannavaro, the 2006 World Cup-winning captain now coaching this remarkable story, sets up in a disciplined 5-4-1, with Yusupov in goal behind a back five of Nasrullaev, Ashurmatov, Khusanov, Urozov and Alijonov. The midfield four of Fayzullaev, Hamrobekov, Shukurov and Urunov is compact and disciplined, with lone striker Eldor Shomurodov carrying the primary attacking responsibility.
Uzbekistan's arrival here is one of the tournament's great underdog stories. They have been knocking on the door of World Cup qualification for over a decade — falling at the final hurdle on multiple occasions — but this time they tore through AFC qualifying with only one defeat in 16 games. Ranked 50th in the world, they finished second behind Iran in both qualifying rounds. The previous coach Kapadze was dismissed despite this success, with Cannavaro brought in to prepare the team for the finals. A pre-tournament loss to Canada (2-0) and defeat to the Netherlands (2-1) show the size of the step up — but Cannavaro will have them organised and difficult to break down.
Shomurodov is the name to watch — the Roma striker has 19 goals in 55 international appearances and is technically one of the most accomplished forwards produced by Central Asian football. Fayzullaev in midfield carries the creative spark, capable of arriving late to support attacks. The shape is compact and pragmatic — Cannavaro will set up to frustrate Colombia, stay in the game and look for a moment on the counter.
Colombia — Los Cafeteros
Néstor Lorenzo lines up in a 4-4-2, with Vargas in goal behind a back four of Mojica, Sánchez, Lucumí and Muñoz. The midfield four of Lerma, Rodríguez, Puerta and J.Arias provides both defensive solidity and attacking width, while Luis Díaz and Jhon Córdoba — labelled as Suárez on the image — partner in attack.
Luis Díaz is Colombia's most important player and one of the most dangerous wide forwards in world football. The Liverpool winger's directness, pace and ability to arrive late into central areas makes him a constant threat — and against a back five that will have limited experience at this level, he could be devastating. Alongside him, Córdoba provides the physical presence and aerial threat. In midfield, James Rodríguez — now in his mid-30s but still one of the most technically gifted players in this squad — will look to pull strings from central positions and supply Díaz with the service he needs.
Colombia topped CONMEBOL qualifying on points in an impressive unbeaten campaign, finishing above Argentina and Brazil in the standings. They beat Brazil 2-1 in Barranquilla — one of the results of the qualifying cycle — and scored 26 goals in 18 games. The supercomputer gives them a 68% win probability here. They are the clear favourites and look every inch a side capable of making the knockout stages.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Luis Díaz vs Uzbekistan's right side. Díaz will operate predominantly down Colombia's left — which means he runs directly at Nasrullaev and Alijonov on Uzbekistan's right flank. Neither has faced anything close to this level of opponent in international football before. If Cannavaro's back five can stay compact and deny Díaz the space to drive inside, Uzbekistan have a chance of keeping this close. If the Colombian wide threat is allowed to function freely, the gaps will appear — and Córdoba and Rodríguez will arrive to punish them.
Prediction
Uzbekistan are here to compete, not simply make up the numbers — Cannavaro has built a well-organised side and Shomurodov is a real threat on the counter. But Colombia's quality across the pitch, and Díaz's ability to decide matches on his own, should be too much over ninety minutes. Expect a competitive first half before Colombia's class tells after the break.
Uzbekistan 0–2 Colombia — Díaz, Díaz
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