xG

Yes but you can be lucky and win and unlucky and lose. Long term, performances regress to the mean. Luck evens itself out so to speak.

xG helps pinpoint what your mean is.

 

Completely irrelevant yet the crux of so many analytics departments across the game and used by mathematical models that influence multi million pound betting markets.

many football fans are dinosaurs, but its ok. I understand.

 

Yes but football fans are very rose tinted and easily take things to the extreme.

thats why i like xG. It gives a neutral view of performance to help understand if teams may be riding their luck.

We have fans on here bemoaning our lack of creativity but, generally speaking, we can’t expect much more than we have for a team in this league, relatively speaking.

 

Ha ha. Good old Cloughie.

it soon reaches the point though where if you don’t move with the times and everyone else has, you get left behind.

at l2 level its not as relevant as clubs don’t have the budget to cover lots of non-playing staff, but at the top level anything you can do to give you an edge is advantageous.

the yanks have used sports data to drive recruitment in baseball (maybe american football too) for years and football in general is lagging behind.

 

I was a cynic once too but then I discovered Ben Mayhew’s blog several years ago and it completely changed my view. Good to hear WOAP value the statistic too.

There’s a decent book called The xG Philosophy by James Tippett that is well worth a read (can get cheap copies now).

i find it fascinating how Brentford have implemented xG and stats into their outstanding recruitment model.

even Fantasy Football Scout have xG data on to help their millions of members work out players coming into and out of form.

 

Ah I stand corrected!

 

Yes. My mistake!

 

Its not a crystal ball.

I’m wasting my time in replying in all likelihood but imagine the pitch is broken down into imaginary squares and there was a big set of data that told you, based on past matches, how often a chance is converted when it happens in that square…… that’s what xG is. It gives you a measure of the quality of chances a team creates.

traditional ‘shots on goal’ numbers have been kept for years but make no distinction between a shot from six yards out or from 30 yards out. A team may have registered 10 shots on goal but in all honesty they could have been pot shots that never looked like going in.

xG is a great predictor of how teams will perform long term. Lucky teams get found out more often than not.

to reference your player who ‘can’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo’ …… xG tells you how many goals they should have scored based on the positions and chances their team mates have created for them. Can your old school statistics tell you that?!

Have a look at a Wyscout report and they use xG information. Million pound transfer deals are conducted on the back of the information this info provides.

Most clubs use Wyscout or similar these days as part of their scouting…..football has moved on behind the scenes in so many ways but the mindset of blinkered fans often doesn’t. We know that from the terraces and this forum.

I don’t really care if we hoof it like Parky’s teams or pass it ala McCall’s. I just want to see a side achieving their potential and winning matches.

but when many are mocking the process at City and some are ridiculously calling for Adams out, they should step back, take a look around the division, and appreciate we aren’t far off being where we need to be. A clinical striker gets this team up based on the number……over to you, Ryan/Stefan!