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Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by Dubois, Mar 20, 2020.

?

Let’s have another guess as to when it will Start (fans in Stadium)

  1. After November 2020 to December 2020

    10 vote(s)
    20.8%
  2. New Year 2021-End April 2021

    21 vote(s)
    43.8%
  3. August 2021

    6 vote(s)
    12.5%
  4. Never, the EFL and/or City will be obsolete

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Before end of October 2020

    11 vote(s)
    22.9%
  1. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    They will just have to play for considerably less money
     
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  2. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    I find no evidence of increasing cases amongst UK residents. Ethnic minorities are still making up about 50% of cases and that would fall much lower if it spread into the wider community.

    The outbreak in Aberdeen is (when I last checked) 79 cases spread across about 25+ pubs, restaurants and cafes, 3 golf clubs and a football club. They were trying to blame pub crawls but it does not really fit the bill. (When I've been to Aberdeen to visit family, I've been disappointed that a city that size did not have a better pub crawl.Scotland does not have anything like the same intensity of pubs as Yorkshire and the North.) What Aderdeen does have is a lot of Polish workers serving who have only just come back to work as the serving industries reopened up 3 weeks ago. The virus us raging in Poland and Eastern Europe at the moment yet we lifted non-essential flight restrictions to Poland on 4th of July just as infection rates there took off, so we now have workers coming back into the UK from a country where the virus is has been ascending rapidly for a month. (Yet more government incompetence. Why does Poland not have the same restrictions as Bulgaria and Romania? Everything gets done too late.)

    https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/poland

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/

    If UK nationals and pub crawls were going to cause problems, we would already have had huge outbreaks in places like Newcastle, Leeds, York, London, Newquay, and several other places I'm less familiar with. They would have happened in England first because we've been open for business longer and do pub crawls more. Leeds would probably have been first after those notorious promotion celebrations. Why did it not happen there? I do expect outbreaks in England to come soon wherever E.Europeans work in significant numbers in service industries (having already done several food factories). The thinly spread Manchester and Trafford outbreak looks like it could be an Eastern European sourced one, as Manchester has over 1% Poles on census figures. I reckon we'll maybe see some in London and Peterborough, soon. If we have herd immunity, as I believe, I doubt they'll amount to much except seaside tourist areas. Seaside resorts were shut down in March so there are more local people left there still to get it when migrant workers bring it in from active countries.

    Even these migrant outbreaks are still not showing much sign of infecting UK resident population. The 7-day average of new cases is up from 697 to 800 (+15%) in the 5 weeks to August 5th but it's taken a rise in tests performed from 94.5k to 139.4k (+48%) to get that rise. The hit rate on testing has actually continued to fall. The impact of these outbreaks/hotspots seems greatly exaggerated if they are having to do many more tests to get modest increases in new cases and hit rates keep falling. (I do note a rise in the last couple of of days but that only takes it back to levels of a couple of weeks ago. There was a similar slight rise in June when they cranked up testing a lot so it is not necessarily an interruption of the longer downward trend yet.)

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-07-01..&testsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&hideControls=true&smoothing=7&country=AFG~GBR&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

    It should also be noted they are locking down on lower levels now. Leicester was nearly 150/100k per week. They are now locking places down for 1/3rd of that.

    Hospital A&E consultations and admissions for Covid were flat last week (pages 20&21) so importing cases from abroad and all these flare ups in factories and asylum hostels and immigrant areas of northern towns have yet to see an increase in hospital activity.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907954/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_32_2.pdf

    Deaths in English hospitals continue to fall and are running at only around 5 per day while the ONS household study estimates 3700 new infection per day in England (4500 a month ago) . That's about 0.11% to 0.13% mortality. Death rates have moderated and no longer seem higher than flu. Indeed, after all countries have lifted lockdowns and completed the problematic first wave, it seems to settle down to a flu level of activity and death. I don't think there'll be a second wave. I think it will never be eliminated but will behave like flu from here. A vaccine will be useful for old and compromised but I doubt it will be needed for others.

    (see histogram/3rd chart for English hospital deaths)

    http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

    (See 4. Incidence rate in England.)

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england7august2020
     
    #2882 Aleman, Aug 8, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2020
    How likes this.
  3. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    TL/DR theres no evidence whatsoever that the outbreaks are confined to immigrants.

    You're suffering from confirmation bias. You've been convinced about herd immunity since April so are making up hypothesis to support it when the very obvious correlation is simply behavioural.

    You're also conflicting immigrants carrying the virus from overseas and the resident BAME communities.
     
  4. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    I did not say they were confined to migrants and I'm not conflicting with local BAME. Even with herd immunity, reseeding will always see some uninfected locals get it before it peters out. That's what happened a month ago when flights from virally very active Bangladesh took it into Rome.

    https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/26190/bangladeshi-migrants-in-italy-stigmatized-over-coronavirus-certificate-scam

    (Iqbal Ahmed, Bangladesh's consulate general in Milan, told DW: "150 out of 1,600 Bangladeshi passengers returned to Italy from Dhaka on six chartered flights, and recently tested coronavirus positive." He added, "Some others have been infected after coming in contact with them. The infection rate is so high that it grabbed the attention of mainstream media and health authorities.")
     
    #2884 Aleman, Aug 8, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2020
  5. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I'm afraid you are. I asked about proof that the new cases were being generated from people bringing it into the country and you spoke about ethnic minorities. The two are not the same.

    There were 5,500+ new confirmed cases in the UK last week and rising. There is plenty of the virus already here to be spread around without it necessarily coming from overseas. There has been nothing to suggest that a disproportionate number of those 5,500 have recently arrived in the country.

    As I say. Its simply confirmation bias. You're seeing the increase in cases and trying to make it fit with a previous theory when it just doesn't.

    The simplest reason is, and always has been, that case are linked to behaviour. Just because some areas don't spike following gatherings (Leeds promotion for example) doesn't mean that isnt the case. It's just that there was a very low prevalence of the virus prior to those gatherings taking place.
     
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  6. Bigrod

    Bigrod Captain
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    Are you so sure about that? ‘The city's seven-day rate has gradually increased from 5.1 cases per 100,000 people late last week to 14.4 as of August 6th 2020‘. https://www.leeds.gov.uk/residents/health-and-social-care/adult-social-care/care-quality-team/covid-19-care-providers
     
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  7. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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  8. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    I'm not sure it helps when Mosques are just being used as normal, I was picking some PVC building materials up opposite the Mosque on Marshfield Street when Friday prayers had ended, if that situation is the same at other Mosques in Bradford one can understand why infection may be passed around so easily.
    There must have been around 100 leaving and if anyone knows the building it used to be the Marshfield Club many years ago not the biggest of clubs.
    Most were wearing masks but it was quite alarming to see the amount of men who were obviously congregating (at Friday prayers) in a small area.
     
  9. brisbanebantams

    brisbanebantams Impact Sub

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    i'm not sure it helps when pubs are letting high numbers in and not taking any tracing details (happened to me in wibsey couple of weeks ago when i drove up to see some friends) - whilst also allowing people to move from table to table and not stay within their designated areas.. or when younger age groups are still having house parties despite new local lockdown methods.. or when there are still mass gatherings in small pockets of space. but let's ignore all that.
     
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  10. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    With no clear leadership from the incumbents running the country it has led us to point where folk have said stuff this, we'll do what we want. Got to remember, the vast majority of the British public are that thick they need clear guidance and leading by the hand. Unfortunately that needs to be by a competent and strong government, something we don't have.
     
  11. brisbanebantams

    brisbanebantams Impact Sub

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    agreed - you don't need to tell me that, you should see the crossed messages we've received in the hospitals since February - even we're confused. but it's my days off now since it all kicked off so going to try and recharge ready for the winter surge.
     
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  12. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    A good reply, if I'd been outside one of your Wibsey pubs I would have quoted similar, you can try and use my post which ever way you like but it was fact, Bradford is a high risk area and it does not help when a community that is susceptible to Covid takes little notice of what is being quoted with regards certain communities within our City.
     
  13. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    It was only a week or so ago that the government put a warning late at night specifically targeting the muslim community the night before Eid celebrations were due to take place. Could you imagine the faux outrage if they did this on Christmas Eve specifically targeting those of Christian faith? I have no confidence whatsoever in this governments ability to deal with anything, if it was a shareholder owned company of which i was a shareholder i would be asking for the removal of the companies board forthwith.
     
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  14. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Squad Player
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    As I saw someone else quote " we have a blue labour government just now" of which I would agree especially as they are throwing/wasting money at so many lost causes...
     
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  15. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    All that money wasted on the Nightingale hospitals, all the contracts for these hospitals and any monies given to fight Covid 19 have gone to MPs with vested interests or their friends who own businesses. The whole handling of this virus stinks to the core, from the handling of patients in care homes to the contracts handed out.
     
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  16. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Squad Player
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    Got an envelope on friday marked 'On her majestys service' thought sugar hope its not jury service or summat and it was a survey to be taken at home by people that will visit us to ask us questions on the pandemic on behalf of the government and Oxford university ( no doubt there will be others on this forum that have received the same) but here's the point...£50 voucher if we take part, how much is this little jaunt going to cost the taxpayer..? not withstanding having strangers call at our house when we're in lockdown...crazy...
     
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  17. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    The cow is being milked for all its worth. Legalised racketeering, we supposedly haven't got money for schools and vital services but they can sure as hell find money when they want to.
     
  18. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Can't help feeling that criticism of Nightingale hospitals or rushed ordering off PPE is a bit harsh to be honest.
     
  19. Bigrod

    Bigrod Captain
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    Serco!!!!!!
     
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  20. Petrov

    Petrov Squad Player

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    It's not harsh at all. When you have a 252 million pound contract to source PPE being handed out to a company set up by a government adviser last September with only £100 in it's account, that then goes on to source 50 million masks that are unusable, that's not incompetence, it's corruption.
     

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