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You'd better tell Wrexham that they don't know

 

Stats can be very misleading an don't always paint a true picture. Anyone who has seen us play this season, and I've seen every game, will point out our strength lies in an excellent keeper and generally sound back four. Doesn't matter stats you use, that front side of ours has never really clicked in any formation. A good pointer to this is Andy Cooks conversion rate is the best in the division, even after his misses at Carlisle. And with the players brought in, as fans I think we expect a side that creates more than we do.

 

If we’re on about stats, the lad who does experimental 3-6-1 blog has just updated and done his League 2 xG table.

https://experimental361.com/2023/01/28/expected-goals-table-league-2-28-jan-2023/

As you’d expect for us, not pretty reading. Suggests we are a midtable side. That’s fair I think. Improvement certainly needed from here Sparky.

 

We don't create enough quality chances to be considered an automatic promotion team. We play most games with a defensive six which cannot lend itself to chance creation with defensive sitting midfielders. At times this season i've had to watch our number '10' Harry Chapman have to drop into his own half to pick the ball up. Again a sign we set predominantly defensive. Those stats in the link are more of a true representation of what we are.

 

I don't get your point.

Cup game. Similar to when we beat Hull.

 

We had the third best (or certainly Top 5) xG in the league when we sacked Adams. All that does is reward teams that don't create many chances. Your xG will be poor if you a team that shoots on site.

Are you saying we get him back?

How about we simply use L2 shot stats?

Or are we going to find some stats that supports this mid-table team narrative and make damn sure they are the only ones considered.

 

Its quite simple, your xG is poor if you create poor chances. The xG was fantastic to October under Adams then dropped right off. It wasn’t top five then.

if we are shooting on site and taking pot shots from 30 yards, that is a sign of a poor team, it isn’t creating plentiful decent-scoring chances on a plate.

we have seen good play at times - we were superb vs Salford and wright was instrumental. But we don’t consistently produce it.

In the main the observations we’ve had this year are that Cook is starved of service. Now its Oliver going hungry. Often our sole striker is isolated. Its a miracle Cook has scored 13.

The wide men aren’t scoring, and we create ‘good’ chances - ie ones that historically lead to goals - at a rate that is only bang average in the division. We dont put enough crosses into the box or attack enough in dangerous areas to put our opponents under pressure.

we need to play better, sharpish, otherwise midtable beckons.

How many away games have we blanked in now??

this football is as bad as Adams’. The only difference is Adams was a toxic, antagonistic w****r and needed sacking for goading the board (“find someone better” etc).

Hughes is a good bloke. I hope he succeeds. But we are a shite side.

Think it was Rogered Tart (apologies if not) that said the other day our best players are a GK and CB…..and he’s right. Our flair players aren’t helped by the defensive set up and mindset, and we need a good shake-up.

 

I think the performance against three teams who were on decent form, i.e. Salford, Wimbledon and Stockport show that we are playing better.

Fans have been obsessed with chance creation ever since McCall left in 2018.

It means diddly squat though, because despite been as terrible as you describe - we're firmly in the promotion race with our best player, injury permitting, available for the rest of the season.

I've liked Hughe's new more pragmatic approach and apart from Rochdale, which after all was ruined by a ref, we've looked fine.

 

Night Mr Hughes

 

P.S. Incidentally our shots on target average is also in the Top 7 or it was prior to Stockport.

My point is that L2 teams don't "consistently produce it". Apparently, Stevenage were terrible against Gillingham, before they got any of their new players.

 

I acknowledge that following the switch to 4-3-3 (or diamond, however it is interpreted), the performances picked up.

they needed to after the Carlisle debacle. We failed to muster a shot on goal there?

however, I wouldn’t say the points earned at Wimbledon or Stockport were from good attacking displays - so we haven’t addressed our long term issues in securing decent points.

i blame the ref and tricky conditions for the Rochdale loss. Id put a line through that game for analysis as Eisa was felled. If we get that pen we go 2-0 up and win the game.

But we’ve lost Wright - our best wide attacking threat - and havent got crosses into the box like we did in that Salford game subsequently. Im not convinced the players we have can deputise for Wright over a full season.

where is Chapman btw? He needed a rest to take himself out the firing line, but we miss his pace and Costello is offering little.

 

It was a fair point wasn't it?

Since when have performance in Cup games, been used as evidence of the type of play that occurs in the league you're in?

Maybe I've missed your point. But it appears to be that you think that Wrexham would give entertainment, 10 shots on target per match etc. When if they did, they'd be a rarity in L2 history.

 

You forget, that once Walker has played more than two matches on the trot what an asset he will be.

This isn't a pipe dream, we improved drastically at the end of last season when he returned.

Keeping him fit, as he is injury prone - is of course another challenge.

However, if he plays the last 19 matches, I bet we are closer to automatic than outside the play-offs.

 

Well I hope he improves greatly on what we have seen from him since he returned

 

Yes - it seems we are hanging plenty on him. i hope banks gets a good run too.

 

I think he's been fine, particularly when he came on against Salford. He's not going to be firing on all cylinders as yet.

 

I feel it's unfair to put so much on him initially. He's going to need 3 or 4 games like Eisa did before he starts contributing throughout the game.

Hughes is playing a risky game. Bola, Walker, Costelloe haven't played much this season. Eisa has only just started to get a run of games together. We could say the same about Oliver. This is probably why form has been stuttering. We've suddenly got a number of players who haven't played much and have never played together in the same team. It's weird how we've sort of thrown away all the "gelling" that the team did at the start of the season and hoped that this group would suddenly click together.

 

Walker is going to take time to get up to speed, we may not see the best of him until next season. Worry is we've brought players to the club in January who either, like Walker, need time to get up to full fitness like Bola, or haven't played as much as others like Nevers. We haven't gelled as an attacking unit all season and now we have to try and integrate these new players into systems and with players they are unfamiliar with. Yet we need these new players to hit the ground running straight away

 

I haven’t a clue what the starting 11 will be on Saturday. One things for sure, Hughes had better nail it down quickly. Mansfield being well backed will be more coherent as a unit than us and unless we’re on the front foot, I can imagine the silence will be deafening again.