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Corona virus

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by king karl, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    So you're just going to keep ignoring the fact that the latest data is misleading no matter how many times its shown to you yeah?
     
  2. Edin Nowhere

    Edin Nowhere Fringe Player

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    The 3 tier setup isn't even a week old and we have seen,

    Millions of people have already moved from the tier they started in to a new tier.

    Tier 3 has now become Tier 3A & 3B with things such as gyms that were required to close not required to close in some places now. This no doubt will become tier 3C, D, E etc which totally contradicts the reason they were brought in to keep things simple due to the confusion of places having different rules weekly.

    Open definance of the government even from their own MPs.

    The whole thing is just a mess and gives no confidence in the leadership.
     
  3. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    You have not shown that data over a week old is misleading. The data is only considered incomplete for 4 or 5 days (when there are no spread sheet *@?$-ups). After that everybody is using it for analysis, including in calculations of R that keep getting cited. Cases have been falling for nearly two weeks in the big university cities of the North. How this reflects on more vulnerable age groups remains to be seen. It might not be a good indication of what is likely to happen in hospitals but it's certainly better than seeing the exponential rises of early September.

     
    #7683 Aleman, Oct 18, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
  4. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Well maybe, but they weren't the areas you chose.

    Each of those places that you picked before had the highest number within the last 5 days.....and even that might not have actually 'topped off' so that's probably a bit early to declare they've levelled out. Hopefully soon though.

    You know I'm not sure about these amateur analysts on Twitter but was he the guy who created that graph that tried to show places hit hard in the first wave were getting off lighter in the second one? His does that look now I wonder.
     
  5. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Which cities in the North have been falling for 2 weeks. I know manchester has but any others?
     
  6. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!

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    It's their plan to suck people in mate. People getting fooled again!.. So when the government so no need to do punish the areas that are not high infection rate we will be.

    Half of the country in now in tier 2 after one week. The government is in discussion to move some up to tier 3A or 3B or 3C. When none of this works we will go into a circuit break(in about 2-3 weeks) for the whole country. It's amazing how so many are still fooled by the worst PM ever.

    Boris's own party are losing confidence in the man. He can't lead this is so clear now.
     
    #7686 Fordy117, Oct 18, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
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  7. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    I've posted them recently but here are some of the Northern ones again.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Newcastle%20upon%20Tyne
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Leeds
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Sheffield
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Nottingham

    I'll rephrase if you like and say they started falling two weeks ago and the latest incomplete data makes it look like they probably still are doing so in the last week. But falling numbers of university students being infected might not reflect the wider trend of more severe illness.The English trend is flat so the trend in England if you remove students is probably still slightly upwards. Does that mean other age groups are still being infected in growing numbers, and was it spread to them from students or not? Hospital trends will be more important and they are certainly still rising too rapidly. There are signs of improving hospital trends in one or two places but it's not in the harder-hit North and it's not overall. The best I can say is it looks linear rather than exponential now. Maybe it's slowly turning down. Maybe not. But the apparent downturn in students getting it could be good news if those saying they were superspreaders that gave it to everyone else are correct.
     
  8. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I see the issue now and why I'm sceptical but you're a bit more confident.

    Those all hit their biggest number on the 6th, 7th, or 8th. The you have the 10th and 11th which are weekend days and we know they're always low.

    Then you probably have Monday of this week which is probably complete but every day since then is likely to be incomplete of a weekend day.

    I don't think there's enough trustworthy days inbetween the 'peak' and now to draw firm conclusions.
     
  9. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    Leeds highest day was October 1st but individual days can be erratic and weekends low. That's why people use 7-day averages. Their 7-day averages all peaked on the 4th apart from Nottingham on the 5th. As I stated, they peaked two weeks ago.

    Some universities suspended face to face teaching and are reinstating it again. I don't know if the downward trend will be maintained, so we have to see if it continues down and will it lead the general trend down or not.
     
  10. StaffordBantam

    StaffordBantam Captain
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    There are certainly some signs that numbers may be levelling off, and possibly even showing a slight fall, but we need to see another week or two of data before we can be reasonably confident that the current restrictions may (or may not) be working.

    We are now entering a period where will see a number of significant announcements, in particular the completion of phase 3 trials on two or more vaccines, plus some new treatments (monoclonal antibodies look very promising). These annoucements should give us a pathway out of this pandemic, but it will still take time before we can put this pandemic behind us.
     
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  11. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Leeds did but only by about 8 cases. You are quite right though.

    The 7 day average brings the same issue. They use the 3 days either side for it (obviously! Ha!) so the last day that is truly not affected by possible lag or an under-reported weekend is all the way back on the 6th or 7th so it's not really a surprise that it peaks just before that. It gives a good trend line but anything after that point is including data that we know is incomplete.
     
  12. bantam2708

    bantam2708 Squad Player
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  13. Frank Castle

    Frank Castle Captain
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    So my sisters boyfriend just received a positive case. The track and trace people haven't been clear with the family though. They're under the impression that they all only need to isolate for 3 more days (based on when the boyfriend first had symptoms). I thought that would be fine for the boyfriend but that the rest of the family would need to isolate for 14 days?
     
  14. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!

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    Puppet Masters

    'Get back in your boxes, you can't go to the match.
    Keep away from others, there's a virus you can catch.
    Keep away from family and friends, hide yourself away.
    An out of control deadly virus, wants your life today'.

    'Don't travel unless vital, we urge you to stay at home.
    Avoid the world if you can, you'll be much safer alone.
    Personal contact is not advised, hugs, kisses and such.
    Live in a virtual Zoom world, is it so important to touch'.

    'We don't aim to scare, so don't take fear to your bed.
    Please try and follow all the conflicting things we've said.
    Do you like our buzz words, 'Bubble' 'Tiers' 'Rule of 6'?
    Ignore the 'conspiracy theorists' up to their usual tricks'.

    'We hope you don't think our measures are too extreme.
    'We are in this together'...well up to a point we mean!
    So thank goodness for broadband, face time and 5G.
    They'll make your isolation more bearable until set free.

    'Oh, something just occurred, it never crossed our mind.
    You don't own such devices, the modern age declined!
    We forgot about such people, or those short of wealth.
    So we hope self isolation doesn't affect your mental health'.

    'If your business goes bust, please don't sulk or complain.
    We do understand that your life will never be the same.
    Well, when we say 'understand' that's not precisely true.
    Here in Ivory Towers, it's hard to relate to the likes of you'.

    'Carry on doing as you're told, don't ask questions and so.
    When your puppet masters are done, we'll let you know.
    By then of course for some, that might too late in the day.
    Depression, poverty, loneliness, will have eaten them away'.
     
  15. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I believe its 14 days from when they last had contact with him.
     
  16. Frank Castle

    Frank Castle Captain
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    Apparently not. They've been told that because they've had contact with him everyday (they live together), that their isolation date is the same as his (i.e. from when he first had symptoms).
     
  17. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Ah sorry I missed that they all lived together. They should all have been isolating from the day he got symptoms in that case.

    Whether they were or not.......ha!
     
  18. king karl

    king karl Administrator
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    Italians looking to scrap all football amateur and professional
     
  19. Frank Castle

    Frank Castle Captain
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    His symptoms were a headache and dodgy stomach so they didn't think anything of it. When it lasted a few days he went and got a test.
     
  20. Campbell's soup

    Campbell's soup Impact Sub
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    Sounds like that pesky COVID-19:rolleyes:
     
    Stop hovering to collapse... Click to collapse... Hover to expand... Click to expand...
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