COVID-19

This ain't top trumps.

 

And I agree but nobody is actually advocating closing schools or universities. While they have that position they're tinkering around the edges.

You know my thoughts on it too. Nothing "works" except long term lockdown but it isn't sustainable. Tier 3 won't work long term, a 2 week circuit break won't work long term, everything else is just trying to mitigate.

But if your position is "lets get on and open the economy" why are you supporting a guy who wants to implement continual national lockdowns? What is the point in locking down Cornwall because Liverpool's infection rate is bad and how can that possible help, surely limiting the disruption to the badly affected parts makes logical sense when we know that nothing apart from catastrophic disruption will actually stop it?

 

Yeah, sure, he's responsible for 43,000 deaths blah, blah, blah.....

 

Lancashire accepted been in tier 3 but have managed to negotiate a deal where gyms and health clubs can stay open.
I mean come on wtf is going on now? How can one be safe in Lancashire and one not in Liverpool, just because one council negotiated and one didn’t.
When is this madness going to end

 

That is just so wanky! What is the actual point of causing all this fuss and then the difference just being gyms? Utter waste of time.

 

Lancashire is not greater Manchester in this case. This is not Burnhams deal

 

Who ever negotiated it, it's still wanky and pointless!

And I mean from both sides. Not just whoever is doing it from Lancashire's side.

 

I agree. But how is it open to negotiation. If this is led by scientists and what we need surely that is final? But it appears not. Also worth nothing 4 conservative MPS make up Lancashire council and they didn’t agree with the government. It’s all getting very messy. Appears trust has gone

 

Exactly. It shouldn't even be negotiable. The whole point was to standardise it. Nuts!

 

becoming even more of a nightmare to police

 

New cases in England and Wales still looking to have stopped rising around the 6th of October, driven by falling cases in hard hit university cities - but what does that mean for the wider underlying trend? (Note numbers tested are still rising very slightly.)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

This near-flat trend seems to be backed up by recent days positivity in testing:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-05-22..latest&country=~GBR&region=World&positiveTestRate=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&hideControls=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

And by the household survey that showed much better trends in the hard-hit Yorkshire and Northeast regions in the first week in October.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/16october2020

Interestingly, this also said that the rise in the over 70s age group reversed at the start of the month. This MIGHT mean recent hospital admissions have been trending to a younger age group who are more likely to make a recovery. Hopefully, that might mean deaths level out a bit. I think the rise in deaths might be slowing in England but the daily figures are just too lumpy to tell yet.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England

However, the Welsh death figures DO look much better despite rising hospital admissions so I think it is a reasonable hope in the short term. The longer term will still needs to see a downward trend in new cases that has not yet appeared.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales

 

You're probably right for a change seeing as Putin's puppeteer pulls Bozo's strings.

 

Seems like the lag is longer that I originally thought. Probably closer to 3 weeks for a full picture to be known.

As correctly pointed out these 11 places were all trending down when it was viewed on the 22nd September and nearly at zero but how true is that after time shows the full picture?

Same here, We're going to have to give it ages before we start declaring things turning "down" by the looks of it.

 

I get where Burnham is coming from him not wanting his patch locking down, not sure he'd be arguing the same if he was the Tory Mayor of Greater Manchester, lets see if he does defy the government and the death rate goes up he holds his hands up and says he was a part of that.
As you say there is little logic to locking down areas where there is little threat at the moment.

 

I'm always right.....and don't you forget it....!!

 

I think some actually believe that, well if Cumming hadn't gone to Durham there wouldn't be a problem.

 

Half the country is doing fine, there will be no national lockdown....

 

A circuit break isn't a full national lockdown.

Already we see movement in places going fron tier 1 to 2.

 

England and Yorkshire still looking fairly flat since October 5th. Bradford nearly levelled out. Need to see some more places turn down, though. So far only the badly hit university cities are falling while many other areas are still flat or rising. It's no good just seeing it fall in the uni halls of residence if it still might be going up elsewhere amongst more vulnerable age groups.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&areaName=Yorkshire and The Humber
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bradford