COVID-19

i can see the logic in that line but here's the issue.

• 12 million people in the UK are over 65 (can't find the statistics for over 60 but assume it'll be 10-11m)
• 12.7 million people in the UK have a respiratory illness
• 4 million people in the UK have an autoimmune disease

Now obviously there's some crossover in there but shall we assume that's 15-18 million people?

How the hell can you completely isolate 18 million people? many of whom will have jobs, others will provide childcare, some of which will live with others that don't fall into the criteria, all of which need feeding and looking after.

As someone who would get their freedom back and be minimally inconvenienced I would be all for it but I can't see a logistical way of doing it at all.

 

Not scientifically possible?

You said they'll just open back up won't they and then said well the buildings won't get knocked down. of course they will, either knocked down or repurposed. then they're gone. we can't just do the hospitality rain dance and get them to appear back because everything's okay now. Who's gonna have that amount of capital ready to invest in new premises, what stock will you sell people as most suppliers (breweries etc) may not be able to survive having such a large percentage of their income disappear overnight. All because apparently its unthinkable to bail out people who actually pay a bit of fecking tax in this country. Who in their right mind would hold onto a building they have been told is unviable to operate in? People either try and go do something else, at which point you accept the end as we know it for the hospitality industry or you support them until they can open safely.

It's been happening for the best part of a decade already. Two of the biggest clubs in Bristol that I live near have said they're closing their doors and have been sold off to developers, with what the govts been spouting playing a big role in the decision. (also worth pointing out both these venues are currently able to open safely and have done so since venues were allowed to re-open so hardly unviable). about 50 odd years history gone for yet more flats. So it's alright saying I'm being silly when you clearly don't have a clue. None of this is down to clubs being unviable, its that they frequently sit on land that developers have wanted to get their hands on since forever and that hasn't changed. Given we have a housing minister who delayed making a decision by a day solely to save his properly developer mate £40 million in tax, I dont think its a stretch at all to believe this is what is happening.

For what its worth I think we'll have some sort of normality by this time next year and I think there's way too much investment gone into vaccine development for us to fail on that score.

 

i don;t know why I'm bothering to answer your questions when you just ignore mine. Which countries test enough to make your idea of only letting people in with a negative test?

they're not going to get knocked down in the next 6 months are they? And people aren't going to invest in city centre apartments in the middle of a pandemic for all the same reasons they would;t invest in hospitality

But yes, it has been happening for years. But that builds into it my point that this is the normal reaction to change rather than it being a reaction to the pandemic. Supply and demand is the key though.

 

There's nothing new about post viral syndrome but "long Covid "does not even seem to be that. The suggestion was that 12% still had symptoms after a month and 2% after 3 months. Some people get close to death with flu and take several months to fully recover so probably not much different.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54296223



The WHO said this week that they estimated from an average of blood studies that 10% have been infected globally - 760m people. Deaths have reached just under 1.1m - so 0.14%. Add in a tailing off effect if new infections stopped and that would give an IFR of 0.17%, slightly more than average seasonal flu, and quite a bit lower than even I had been suggesting. Discuss

 

Are all the deaths accurately reported though? Especially in some of the poorer nations.

Excess deaths might help?

That would be my only concern with that calculation.

 

But with interest rates close to zero the cost of servicing that debt is minimal. It doesn't have to be repaid quickly. It took decades to repay the debt from WW2 but, meanwhile, life went on as normal, we built the NHS and mass public housing, and we had the economic and cultural explosion of the 60s, which only got halted by the international oil crisis.

We had the worst recovery from the 2008 global banking crash of all the richer nations because of the Tories' obsession with balancing budgets quickly. The economy isn't the family housekeeping fund and doesn't have to be managed like it. Other countries that reflated their economies and stimulated demand by borrowing recovered much faster than us. But the dimwits on the right won't learn that lesson because it doesn't fit their outdated Thatcherite/Friedmanite obsessions.

 

I don't disagree and don't support austerity but please let's not pretend that there isn't some pain coming. Just paying the capital takes a pretty significant chunk out of any governmental budget. It can't be ignored even if it doesn't need to be done quickly.

I see what you're saying about the post war debt but the world economy isnt the same as it was in the 40s or 50s.

Even the true Keynesian approach needs to debt to be spent on things which lead to growth, not just chucked in a hole to get through the mess.

 

R fallen back below 1 in London in October.




Oh great. Students being recorded by their home addresses so the outbreak in wider communities might not actually be as great as numbers suggest.

 

Latest R for October /previous

East Mid 1.2 / 1.1
West Mid 1.33 / 1.2
East 1.05 /1.3
London 0.97 / 1.2
N West 1.27 / 1.4
N East 1.05 / 1.7
S East 1.22 / 1.3
S West 1.16 / 1.4
Yorks + H 1.37 / 1.3

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/public/Resurgence-of-SARS-CoV-2-in-England--detection-by-community-antigen-surveillance.pdf

Map of latest prevalence on page 16 but might be using students' home addresses. Look at this and maybe half the country still seems to be okay.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_Round5_Paper.pdf

I note the bigger rise in over 65s getting it - possibly aggravated by some contracting after going into hospital?

 

But wasn't the shielding advice originally to stay at home and avoid any in person contact? I can't actually remember now.

 

Forget giving the MP’s a 3 grand pay rise. A hearty thank you, a green badge and a banging of a pan on a Thursday night should be enough.

 

Spot On !!!!

 

Fans in the grand stand at the Eifel Grand Prix today.

 

We probably shouldn’t mention PPE Medipro. Nothing to see there.

 

Relatively interesting article about how other countries are dealing with the second wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54482905

 

France's mortality rate continues to fall as deaths fall and cases rise. Deaths in last week 439 (down from 498 the week before). Cases same week a month ago 53763 (up from previous week 46594). Case mortality 0.82%. France was testing at 20% lower levels than the UK so that likely puts its infection mortality rate at a maximum of maybe 0.25%. Spain was testing 40% lower than UK month ago so its 777/70424 = 1.10% case mortality rate is probably no higher than an infection mortality rate of 0.3%. So, rocketing cases and not rocketing deaths have shown the virus might not be more deadly than bad flu (though still not as low as the WHO's recent implied 0.17%). UK case mortality is over 2% still but looks to be falling as a slowing rise in deaths results from rocketing cases a month ago. I fancy it will follow Spain and France. It could be the student effect driving the mirtality rates down but October's REACT report showed the age group with the most rapidly rising infection rate was actually over 65s - probably partly due to so many acquiring Covid recently in hospital. (How does locking down communities stop people in acquiring Covid in hospitals?)



WHO condemns lockdowns for the poverty they create . (Which we know increases longer term death rates.)

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74

 

Government being dickheads again an leaking things

TIER 3 lockdown.

Measures expected to include:
- pubs, gyms, casinos, bookies CLOSED
- restaurants OPEN
- could last 6 MONTHS, but with monthly reviews

 

Are they catching it in hospital?

Interesting from the WHO. Even more interesting timing as everyone is starting to follow the initial advice again.

 

And now there is talk about non essential shops having to close. Just essentials, shops and offices open.
God help us all.
Any shop that managed to survive closing for the summer will be killed off if they are closed until Christmas and stuck with all the stock