Brexit

There's a massive amount of history rewriting going on here. Of course people who wanted Brexit extolled the simplicity of the processes involved and those people who wanted to stay focused on the catastrophic events that would follow.

At the extreme ends neither of these things happened which shouldn't be a massive shock because.........drum roll.......politicians actually lie when they want people to agree with them!

What we've ended up with is a position which falls within the common sense middle ground where there's been a trade deal that happened relatively quickly once a firm deadline was put in place, decent progress on trade deals around the world and some disruption which could be alleviated to some degree by some good faith tweaking from both sides.

What's starting to bother me is that everything is viewed through the prism of Brexit. The queues at Dover being the prime example, they were "all because of Brexit" but there hasn't been queues there for 2 weeks now so does that mean Brexit is fixed? Oh and what's this......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-36873632 - 14 hour queues in the summer of 2016 - they must have backdated Brexit?

 

Dave, what I said was that it would be years before we put decent trade deals together and that there would be disruptions to trade after leaving, which would have various negative impacts on the economy. All of that is true and happening as predicted.
At no point did I ever quote or agree with Osborne or Cameron's stupid scare stories about the economy falling apart immediately if we voted to leave. Just because the predictions of the worst Chancellor in living memory did not come true does not mean that everything else that other remainers said is wrong. Most of what most remainers said would happen, is happening.

 

You must have been one of the very few who didn't, Cameron & Osbornes comments were the basis for the remainers argument as was the big red bus.
What exactly did you say would happen going forward as there is little that could match their doomsday comments in project fear, a collapse of the economy, inflation through the roof, £ worth nothing, a collapse in house prices, 820,000 job less, tell us what you predicted that is happening as its very interesting going back and reading some of the posts with the Brexit thread.

 

Find me one post on this thread where I agreed with Cameron or Osborne. I simply didn't. If you read my earliest posts on this thread I was extremely critical of Cameron for calling a referendum and then running the most feeble remain campaign imaginable. I was furious with Osborne for making those stupid doomsday comments about immediate recession and emergency budgets etc. It just played into the hands of those, like you, who wanted to brand every remainer argument as 'project fear'. It totally undermined the much more nuanced remainer arguments about likely long term damage to the economy. It was always obvious that the negative economic consequences of Brexit would be medium to long term, not instant.

No one that I know expected our economy to immediately collapse as a result of Brexit. But they all thought that there would be problems with trade (as we're seeing) and difficulties in recruiting staff to certain industries (as we're seeing).

The other thing I predicted was that the EU would (rightly or wrongly) play hardball in order to protect the integrity of their single market. I said at the time that if we chose to leave then we were in cloud cuckoo land if we thought the EU would change their rules or processes to make life easier for us. As we are seeing, that was never going to happen - they could not afford to allow us to leave and yet retain benefits of membership. That was blindingly obvious to me and most other remainers.

 

This thread only started in 2018 so it's a bit late. It would definitely be useful to see what people said through the referendum process.

 

Good point. But I can tell you now that I was certainly not predicting the imminent collapse of the economy like the idiot Osborne did. It was always obvious to me that a) there would be problems, but that their effect would build up over time and b) that the 'easiest trade deal in history', 'have our cake and eat it' arguments were delusional - the EU was always going to play hardball.

 

The reason I posted it was because you picked me up on bringing it into the debate, of course I did just to prove there we lies on both sides but I'd suggest comments like those from the then Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer were abysmal and guess work at best, yet it was the basis for the remain camp to run on doom and gloom immediately we left.

Well we obviously have different types friends and family as prior to the referendum I said everyone I'd spoken to were very much in the leavers camp, although at the time I didn't think we would beat the establishment, I'm not sure any leavers thought for one minute the EU would not make it hard.

Yes there are things that manufactories have to do now that they didn't have to before its an inconvenience rather than an insurmountable problem because as you say the EU are playing hard ball which I have said many times is their right they didn't want the second biggest contributor to leave but more so make a success of leaving.
The situation wasn't helped by Teresa May's and her half hearted approach to the negotiations, the EU knew she was a remainer at heart and pushed he into a corner where she daren't threaten to walk away, we saw this with the namby pamby deal she brought back and expected David Davis and Dominaic Rraab to sign at Chequers but resigned rather than sign a deal that sold the leavers down the drain.
With regards recruiting staff to certain industries we have a different opinions with regards the EU workers you say they won't come to the UK to work, yet people at the sharp end like the farmer I quoted said it's the government that are not producing the workers visas quickly enough.

 

The thing is what you're saying isn't ground breaking, most people I know who voted leave knew there would be disruption and problems and that the EU would make life difficult.

Very few people actually thought we could "have our cake and eat it", everyone knew there would be some sacrifices such as the "loss" of freedom of movement (if you want to call it a loss) and having to put up with the EU protectionist barriers from the outside rather than the inside.

Characterising people as blindly following the "it'll all be simple" rhetoric is a silly as saying you believed the "Cameron/Osborne" doomsday forecasts (although they very much weren't on their own with that). Most people were very much in the middle ground and made their decisions accordingly without sitting on the extremes.

 

Dave, you keep quoting one farmer. But there have been numerous reports of many employers, both in farming and various other economic sectors, saying that the EU citizens they used to employ in large numbers are mostly not bothering to apply to come here. Speeding up visas might improve the situation a little but, even if they do, many will just be put off by the whole process since they can work elsewhere without the hassle of applying for visas.

You think that if we'd threatened to walk away on a set date, with or without a deal, that the EU would have given us a better deal than we got. I think that's a total delusion. The absolute priority for the EU was to protect the rules of their single market, so as not to encourage any other countries from believing they could leave and still retain benefits of being in the club. The EU didn't want a no deal Brexit, but they would rather have had that than be seen to cave in to us.

We clearly do have very different friends and family. Apart from people I've met through football, virtually everyone I know voted Remain. I have had many conversations with them, before and after the referendum, and don't know any who thought the economy would collapse as Osborne said it would, any more than they believed there would be £350m a day for the NHS. The Remainers I know thought that what is happening now was exactly what would happen - many businesses, NHS, care homes etc struggling to recruit enough staff; many businesses reporting big import and export difficulties; extra bureaucracy causing extra costs which are passed on to customers in higher prices. These things were always going to be the economic reality of leaving the customs union and single market. You may think it was worth it anyway, because of 'sovereignty' and reducing EU immigrants, but I don't.

 

You're putting words in my mouth. Where did I characterise anyone as anything? I never said that most people believed the 'cake and eat it stuff'. I was simply quoting what was said at the time in response to Dave's statement that the remainer argument was based around Osborne's absurd cataclysmic predictions.

I actually think that very few people voted Remain because of Osborne's predictions, just as few voted Leave because they really believed that there would be £350m extra per day for the NHS. Both were absurd hyperbole which most reasonable people on both sides of the debate were capable of seeing through.

I think that most people who voted Remain did so because they a) believe that the EU has been responsible for ensuring peace in western Europe for the first time in a thousand years and is therefore an intrinsically good thing, despite its flaws; b) wanted to preserve free movement and c) because they believed that leaving would be economically detrimental for Britain in the short, medium and long term. That doesn't mean that they thought the economy would collapse overnight like Osborne predicted.

I also think that most people who voted for Brexit did so for non-economic reasons.

And therein lies the continued great divide.

Hardcore remainers believe that their predictions of economic detriments are coming true and don't see that situation changing in the foreseeable future, if ever. Things may well improve from where they are now, but they will always be worse than they would have been if we'd stayed in the EU. And they don't see any other benefits that make those economic detriments worth it.

By contrast, hardcore brexiteers believe that the economic detriments are overstated - it's all down to the pandemic and Ukraine war, not Brexit - and, even if there are economic detriments, they are worth it to feel that we are in control of our own laws, borders etc.

I honestly don't see that divide changing any time soon.

However, polling evidence suggests that many of those in the middle - ie not ideological Brexiteers but voted for Brexit - are now saying they wish we hadn't left. The majority of those who have died since the referendum voted to leave whereas the majority of young people who've become eligible to vote since 2016 would have voted Remain. It's therefore pretty clear that a majority of the electorate is now anti Brexit. But that's cold comfort for people like me, because we are clearly not going to rejoin in the foreseeable future and, if we did, it would be on very unfavourable terms compared to what we had before. So, we are going to be stuck with the consequences of what will become an increasingly minority viewpoint.

 

I'm not meaning to put words in your mouth at all. Simply saying that dismissing the extremes from one side (i.e. Osborne/Cameron) but mentioning the extremes on the other (seamless transition, etc, etc) gives a misleading viewpoint when as you say - neither of them probably factored in. Osborne and Cameron also weren't on their own to be fair but we can group all the extreme negatives in together.

I 100% agree with the bits in bold so to have a proper discussion these things should be acknowledged as the key difference. Discussions about anything else miss the point severely.

Which brings us to the final bit and this is where the outlook of some media sources (mentioning no names!) and high profile commentators that "everything is Brexit" is wearing down people who just take things at face value and don't look any deeper into things but it's purposefully overplayed. The queues at Dover and the pollution in rivers being sold as purely "because of Brexit" when a small amount of investigation showed they happened before 2016/2019 are prime examples. Similarly the cost of living, energy prices, inflation, supply chain disruption, etc which are worldwide issues being sold as "because of Brexit" is disingenuous.

And while you're completely accurate about the current polling if push came to shove I'm not sure the vote wouldn't actually be replicated. There's too many high profile things where the EU didn't cover themselves in glory (Ukraine & Vaccines mainly) and the fact we'd rejoin on worst terms so in a hard hitting campaign the positives of joining would be even fewer than before and the impacts of 'Project Fear' would be even less. Hell, the leave campaign could even point out that the NHS is actually getting £350m per week more than it was in 2016 although they'd never be able to claim let alone prove that this was "because of Brexit"

 

I don't think most commentators are saying that these things are just because of Brexit, but that Brexit is making them worse than they otherwise would be. Eg, there are far too many businesses saying that their costs have been significantly increased by post Brexit bureaucracy, to dismiss its impact on inflation. Or that there are many small businesses for whom exporting to the EU has become uneconomic because of the complications now involved. And yes, Covid has definitely had a role in labour shortages, but anyone who thinks that Brexit isn't significantly to blame too is either lying or living in a cave.

You talk about media sources claiming 'everything is Brexit'. But read the Sun, Mail, Express or Telegraph and there's a total conspiracy of silence on any post Brexit' detriment. Nothing is ever the fault of Brexit, which is clearly ridiculous. This is exasperating those who can see that there obviously are significant negative impacts either caused or exacerbated by Brexit'.

You may well be right about a hypothetical re-joining referendum (not that one is going to happen). We have tossed away the extraordinarily good deal we had during our EU membership. Re-joining would involve higher budget input, with no 'rebate', plus conditions that even many Remainers would find unacceptable - eg adopting the Euro in place of the Pound. So it's hard to envisage a situation in which we would fully re-join. We are lumbered with an increasingly unpopular situation for the foreseeable future.

 

Costs have increased because if EU Third Party/Brexit bureaucracy there is no doubt but it so difficult to quantify in any meaningful way and when the US and the EU themselves are following very similar inflationary paths it's really difficult to nail it down to Brexit unless everything is viewed through that prism.

Similarly with the small businesses - who can probable be tied back to Brexit more precisely than Covid/Supply chains - but the actual number of small businesses going bust is no different to any other year so it's possible that the overall impact is not as severe as sometimes portrayed. Then you have the old issue of stupid, protectionist EU rules vs Brexit.

But part of the exasperation in that second paragraph is that you WANT everything to be tied back to Brexit. if something is 97% global issues and 3% Brexit related (for example) you get annoyed because they haven't mentioned it.......but that is not really how the media report things in minute details, especially not those particular papers and you wouldn't get annoyed about the reporting style if they ignored any other minor factor in high level reporting. Whereas no matter how small the actual impact of Brexit has on things other media will have the headline "because of Brexit" and it's disingenuous.

At the moment there are very few long term issues that anyone can honestly say are truly "because of Brexit" - Northern Ireland being the obvious exception). There are things where the uncertainty gives an additional hurdle to overcome or the relatively recent change in trading relationships gives one other aspect of complexity but it almost all these situations it is a minor aspect in a much more wide ranging issue. Surely that has to be reflected in the reporting if it's going to be unbiased?

 

It affects the job I do on a daily basis trev, it's also massively affecting the jobs of most people I know too. I'm also entitled to my opinion in a free country. nobody is forcing you to comment or read this thread and I think posting crap like this is beneath you.

 

LOL

 

A post like that is about right for you though Tone

 

Its all the xxxxxxxx has in his life mate. Ignore him.

 

Oi, you're not like this when we're playing snakes and ladders together....

 

haha

You are funny and quick witted. No denying that.

I took the bait and got triggered. Well done.

 

Looks like there may be a break through with regards the Northern Ireland Border.

EU offers to reduce Northern Ireland border checks to ‘a couple of lorries a day’ (msn.com)