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Brexit

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Park bantam, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    Have a read of this ...

    https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

    It's a bit heavy going but explains the importance of diferent types of trade between UK and the rest of the EU.

    Financial services, car production, business services, pharma are all important exports to the EU. And 'why' we sell so much to the EU is as important as 'what' we sell to them. All of that was traded with zero tariffs, without quotas and without regulatory checks and inspections. That's what being in the single market and customs union means and which makes UK exports to the rest of the EU and EU exports to the UK cheaper than from other sources for similar standards. It also means that quotas, tariffs,different standards don't get in the way of pan-European integrated manufacturing particularly in car production. Now we are outside of the EU, and if the Govt pursues its current policies, most of that will in future be subject to tariffs, quotas and regulatory inspection at the borders. Without a trade deal with the EU, it will be subject to WTO rules and therefore subject to WTO tariffs which of course will make our exports more expensive when imported into the EU and it will interfere with integrated production processes. So you can guess what will happen.

    Worse than that, the biggest slice of our exports to the EU comprises services - financial services, business services, engineering services etc. The WTO rules have no provision for trading in services. To trade in services (our key exports) requires a series of bilateral trade deals between us and whoever wants to buy the services. That is a major component of what the EU wants from us and why negotiating a free trade deal with the EU is so important to us. But over time, and it's happening already, the likes of Germany, France, Netherlands, Ireland will expand their own service sectors, particularly financial and businesses services. Whilst we are one of the two world centres for say financial services (largely because of the UK being home to a major UK subsidiary of just about every global bank in the world!) , it won't be long before others overtake us unless we can negotiate the right kind of trade deal with the EU. And the Govt appear to be opposed to that.
     
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  2. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    The sale of around 2 million cars a year to the UK from the EU, A large portion from Germany and France, French Wines and German Switchgear and engineering components, All these would cause serious economic damage to them
     
  3. Bronco

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    The present German, French, Italian, Spanish economies are hardly booming, when the UK leave they will have major problems covering our contributions.
     
  4. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Squad Player
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    Don't you be pissing on @Offcomedun@Offcomedun 's bonfire...!!
     
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  5. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    Not at all mate, we've seen in the past when a certain paper has made a claim the replies have been that paper can't be taken seriously, so do we apply the same comments to the Guardian.
     
  6. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    No one is pretending that Brexit won't harm the EU. Of course it will. We were a major budget contributor, so it's bound to have an impact. Brexit is economically bad for everyone. The question is, who will it impact most - us or them? Most economists, and the CBI, believe that, unless we can maintain frictionless trade with the EU, which means maintaining common standards, then our economy will suffer most.
     
  7. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    I'd think if they don't offer us a similar deal to Canada and Singapore we could very much leave without a deal, they were happy to offer us a similar deal previously but now they are saying they can't because we're too near the EU, when did we move nearer.
    What is the point in having a referendum when we decided to leave we maintain common standards that keeps us tied to the EU, they can then make changes and we have no say in the matter as we no longer have a vote.
     
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  8. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    This has been the crux of the matter all along. We can have our own standards or we can have seamless trade with our biggest market. We can't have both.
    We can cut off our nose to spite our face if we want.
    Not much point in having control of our own industries if they've gone bust due to EU tariffs.
     
  9. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    The trade deals we have today, both within the EU and across the rest of the world, have evolved into what they are today over decades of complex negotiations.

    The trading needs of the UK and the EU have not changed substantially, as a result of Brexit, and, therefore, I expect that a sort of convergent evolution will take place, so that eventually we will end up with new deals that are not too dissimilar to the current arrangements, albeit with subtle 'political' differences. There will be some painful issues to resolve before we get there and we may not get there quickly, but we will get there.

    Of course, even when we do get there will be winners and losers, that is always the nature of change.
     
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  10. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    Tariffs work both ways, they bang 20% on we do the same, I'm not sure the German car industry or the French wine makers will be happy with that to prove a point.

    Whats changed the EU mind with regards not offering a Canada/Singapore type of deal as they did originally.

    We can now negotiate from a far stronger position after the General Election result and the EU know it, Boris and his negotiating team can demand stuff that Theresa May dare not ask for as she knew she was in a weak position,never actually threatening the EU with a no deal, she tried to accommodate both sides of the Tory party where as Boris has made it very plain when he took the whip from the 21 who voted against him.

    The Tories are a far more united party and now having the backing of the North's ex-Labour voters he has a free hand, at the end of the day the UK negotiators have the no deal card and the EU know it.

    We'll know more come the start of the serious talks at the beginning of March.
     
    #2290 Bronco, Feb 21, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2020
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  11. Bronco

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  12. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Squad Player
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    The Irish as with the Scots could be homeless if they don't fall in to line....
     
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  13. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    The EU have major issues with regards the forthcoming EU budget saying, "The EU is on the verge of a financial crisis after it emerged the EU27 is facing a black hole of more than £166 billion (€200billion) in its first post-Brexit budget".
     
  14. Clity

    Clity Fringe Player

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    Well said and completely ignored by the brexiters as per usual. Now they are doing what I predicted and are blaming the EU for not giving us the trade deal we want because waaaaaah we are british and waaaaah we had a referendum so magic should just happen...
     
  15. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Squad Player
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    laughing-with-tears-and-pointing-emoticon-vector-12862186.jpg
     
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    Berkshire-bantam, RCarol and Bronco like this.
  16. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    Let's await the serious stuff to start next week, the EU now realise they are dealing with serious negotiators I believe they wont find them as easy to bully as they did Theresa May.
    These negotiations will be far different to the May days because the UK electorate gave the Tories a very big Parlimentary majority and he has the full backing of those voters to deliver.
    The EU already have a big split within the group with regards the EU budget, the major contributors being told they have to fill the void left by the UK.
     
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  17. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Where do we make 2 million cars a year?
     
  18. Clity

    Clity Fringe Player

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    I think you will find the EU to be tougher than you expect given that before there was a chance the UK could remain but now there is not. If you think they will allow single market benefits with none of the responsibilities then you simply are naive.
     
  19. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    doesn’t it say from Europe, not to Europe. So we import 2m cars
     
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  20. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    Lets see who's naive as these negotiations start and progress or not, of course I would expect the EU not to allow us a Canada type of agreement,they have to be seen as they have control. although it seems they have changed their stance on it, by now saying they can't give a country on Europe's doorstep the same deal as Canada but previously were saying that could be an option.
    There is no point in second guessing what will be said the EU will have their idea of brexit and the UK seem to be saying the things that us leave voters want.
     

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