10-game segments, stats -- 19/20 season

A much more positive start to this year's version of this thread.

First 10: 5-2-3, 14-9, 17


Home/Away: Home 3-1-1, 8-3, 10; Away 2-1-2, 6-6, 7

At HT: Leading 3-0-0, 7-1, 9; Drawing 1-2-3, 5-7, 5; Trailing 1-0-0, 2-1, 3

At any point ( 0-0: 1): Leading -- 5-1-2; Trailing -- 2-0-3

(Both led and trailed in same match: Crewe (A), Northampton (H), Cheltenham (A), Carlisle (H))


Today's win made it a good rather than just alright start. Our pace of 1.7 points-per-match is that of at least a playoff side; some years it would get us into the auto-promotion slots. The goals against number is very encouraging, but it would be nice to see more goals scored. Still, if the defence remains tight we can afford a goals-for total in the 60s for the season. Two come-from-behind wins already is very good to see, especially after last year.

Some points landmarks (since 3 points for a win):

49 points: should mean safety -- to date 48 the highest points total for the bottom side
66 points: lowest points total for a 7th-placed side (range 66-79)
75 points: lowest points total for a 3rd-placed side (range 75-91)
79 points: to date has guaranteed at least a playoff spot
82 points: lowest points total for the champions (range 82-102)
91 points: to date has guaranteed auto-promotion

Our current pace would lead to 78 points.

So far, so good. I didn't have us down for a playoff side this season, more mid-tableish, so I'm certainly encouraged. I also hope this practice of winning from losing positions becomes a habit.

RCB

 

Yes, it's up there when you consider our whole history -- in the top 20% I reckon. But if I have totted things up correctly, we have had 18 seasons with better starts than 5-2-3.

Our best have been a pair of 8-1-1s, followed by a pair of 7-2-1s, a pair of 6-3-1s, and four 6-2-2s. Six seasons have started 6-1-3, and we've also had a 5-3-2 and a 4-6-0, that last just a couple of seasons ago.

RCB

 

After 20 matches:

1st 10: 5-2-3, 14-9, 17
2nd 10: 5-3-2, 13-9, 18

Home: 7-1-2, 16-7, 22
Away: 3-4-3, 11-11, 13
Total: 10-5-5, 27-18, 35

Leading/Drawing/Trailing at HT:

Leading: 5-0-0, 11-2, 15
Drawing: 4-3-4, 11-11, 15
Trailing: 1-2-1, 5-5, 5

Leading/Trailing at any point: Leading: 10-1-2; Trailing: 2-2-5 (0-0: 2)
Both led and trailed in same match: Crewe (A), Northampton (H), Cheltenham (A), Carlisle (H)
- - -
Our current points-per-match pace is 1.75, or 80.5 for the season. To date in the 3-points-for-a-win era, that has guaranteed a top-7 finish, and in some years a top-3 (though never 1st place).
- - -
How do these numbers compare with our recent playoff seasons? We are ahead of Parky's side in 15/16, and just about equal to Stuart's side of 16/17. We are slightly behind Stuart's side of 17/18, but that went off the rails soon after.

15/6: 8-7-5, 22-20, 31
16/7: 9-8-3, 27-18, 35
17/8: 11-3-6, 29-22, 36
- - -

As mentioned on another thread, we have been very consistent, at playoff pace, for 20 matches now. And we've done this despite our injury list. So there is cause for some optimism that we will stay in the playoff hunt. Our defence continues to be good, and offence adequate. Overall, I'm pleasantly surprised.

On the other hand, there is the grumbling about the style of play. Tight Parky style got us to a playoff win and a playoff semifinal loss; the more open and enjoyable Stuart style got us to a playoff final loss. Right now tight Bowyer style has us heading playoffwards. I suppose getting out of this division is more important than getting out with style... (if we can't have both).

RCB

 

Ummm...those stats *are* facts. How one interprets them is another matter...

But as for yesterday's match, yes indeed, that was not one for the memory book. I hope that Bowyer will get the offence going (or allow it to get going) -- perhaps once he is sure that the defence will remain solid things will change.

RCB

 

After 30:

1st 10: 5-2-3, 14-9, 17
2nd 10: 5-3-2, 13-9, 18
3rd 10: 2-6-2, 9-10, 12

Home: 9-4-2, 23-11, 31
Away: 3-7-5, 13-17, 16
Total: 12-11-7, 36-28, 47

Leading/Drawing/Trailing at HT

Leading: 6-2-0 16-5 20
Drawing: 5-6-4 13-12 21
Trailing: 1-3-3 7-11 6

Leading/Trailing at any point

Leading: 12-4-2
Trailing: 2-3-7
(0-0: 4)

Both led and trailed in same match: Crewe (A), Northampton (H), Cheltenham (A), Carlisle (H)

- - - - -
For all the recent troubles, the defensive numbers have remained good, but the offensive numbers have gone from adequate (even if barely so) to, well, offensive. Wins and draws turn into draws and losses, and our trends head in the wrong direction. Our points-per-match pace overall is now 1.57, or 72 total. Forget automatics with that, and hope to hang on to 7th or perhaps climb to 6th.

I say defensive numbers have remained good, but perhaps that needs to be qualified -- our two most recent half-time leads, for example, have ended up as draws. Today there is at least the excuse of being a man down. Still, we have lost more points to late goals than we have gained with scoring late ourselves.

Perhaps it is also worth repeating something from another thread: after now 30 matches, only 5 times have we had the same starting lineup in two successive league matches, and never in three. With Devitt now suspended, Oldham will see yet another changed lineup. Injuries certainly haven't helped, nor have suspensions. But still, this amount of instability can't be good.

Overall, a disappointing segment, that has us headed rather towards mid-table than playoffs, or especially, autos. We really need some positive action in what remains of this transfer window, and then a good February to get back on track.

RCB

 

Scary thought, isn't it? But on the brighter side, his losing % is some 32% below Collins's! It isn't really a fair comparison though, given the respective lengths of their tenures.

Collins can become like Hereford -- I was one of the lucky few to witness a Collins win!

RCB