COVID-19

Yeah and the world is flat

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

 

More and more studies are showing even cloth masks reduce transmission especially if they are more than one layer.

obviously if worn incorrectly the benefit will be reduced but I think those that wore/wear them badly are more likely now not to wear them at all

 

I don't particularly doubt that masks help to some degree but the studies are an actual mess. They either use masks that the general population don't (multiple layers, surgical masks, etc) or they do them in purely clinical environments. A simple study of single layer, cheap, masks in a real world environment would put it all to bed but it's basically impossible.

 

Who wears a single layer cloth mask? I've never even seen one. Every cloth mask I've seen has been at least two layers, and usually more.
Put 'face masks' or 'washable face masks' into (eg) Amazon and you get pages of masks, most of them three layer, some with pockets to insert filters or folded layers of tissue paper. And the blue disposable ones that lots of people wear are three layer.
You keep going on about single layer masks but I think that's a red herring.

There's plenty of evidence that several layers of mask significantly reduces the number of viral particles that make it through a mask, whether in or out. Of course masks aren't foolproof. But they have an important role to play in protecting both the wearer and those in proximity to the wearer.

 

I'm not going on about it. I just know they're out there.

And I have no doubt that they work both in theory and practice but the imperfections of real life (people taking them on and off, not wearing them perfectly, not storing them correctly, and yes they type of mask) makes the studies a mess to take absolutely imperial.

 

And this is the problem. It doesn’t seem to be good enough that there is evidence, the evidence isn’t good enough because people don’t wear them right. The evidence is there so surely the discussion should move on to how to get people to wear them correctly when wearing them

 

And even worn less than optimally they are still going to give some reduction in the likelihood of contracting or transmitting the virus. Any reduction is better than none.

 

The BBC has changed tact with regards to the vaccine now.

Covid: Double vaccinated can still spread virus at home - BBC News

"Double jabbed people are catching Covid and passing it on to those they live with, warn experts who have studied UK household cases.

Individuals who have had two vaccine doses can be just as infectious as those who have not been jabbed."

I mean we all knew this didn't we, that's why some of us think vaccine passports are completely useless but clearly there are alot of people out there who have been programmed since the vaccine roll out that they are invincible.

"Vaccines do an excellent job of preventing serious Covid illness and deaths, but are less good at stopping infections, particularly since the emergence of the more infectious Delta variant which is dominant in the UK."

The push is out there to still get vaccinated as it will still protect you better when you get it.


I notice Mark Drakeford's idea to stop increasing infections in Wales is to push out the vaccine passport (that doesn't work) to more settings. Seeing as they are such a success along with mandatory masks as it currently stands.

 

The evidence is there and masks do work but surely it's a fair enough point to say that masks tested under lap conditions don't behave exactly the same as masks that get taken in and out of pockets every 15 minutes, are never washed and were probably bought months ago?

You can try and educate people if you like but as you can see at the moment people were only ever wearing them to tick a box so their maintenance and choice of the masks reflected that. They don't actually seem to care about wearing them to stop the virus, they care about wearing them so they can get on the bus.

Add into that the rather problematic fact that the areas of the UK with the infection rates have often being where places have mask mandates rather than not.

For the record, once again, I can see why masks would work logically. I just hate the way they've gone about researching the effects on them which seem to an attempt to give the masks optimal opportunity to stop particles rather than the effects of them in the 'wild'.

 

I notice the vaccine surveillance report has taken off the rates at which the vaccinated and unvaccinated people are catching covid on their week 43 update. It's very weird to remove data unless you are removing data because you don't want that data to be noticed.

This is week 42 data as presented



This is week 43 data as presented



Still by far the biggest transmission is in school age children who in the main are unvaccinated but I would guess the high range of figures from 30 to 59 with 40 to 49 is from household family transmission from cases caught in school

I'm not sure what masks, covid passports, social distancing, etc would play in any of these scenarios, if this is the main cause of spread at present which appears to be suggested by the figures seeing as 18 to 29 year olds are less than half of 40 to 49 year olds however the younger group would be those out and about in nightclubs etc on a regular basis. The story I linked earlier from the BBC was pushing towards "home settings" as the biggest place of transmission.

 

Maybe the push about home settings is going to be the next reason to lock down. If it is only transmitted in hone it would soon reduce as you can only oss it around. The issue is with inter home transmission, less interactions between homes means less transmission

 

The people at home are likely to have caught it via 1 person from their household catching it elsewhere, that has always been the case.

I know of a family of 4 who have all tested positive for Covid this last week, clearly brought in by 1 of the 4.

I very much doubt people will stand for being told not to mix in the household. People won't even stand for masks these days. All the goodwill has long since evaporated.

Lets be honest people were sold the promise of the vaccine unlocking us and that transmission of the virus would be substantially reduced, however it is becoming very clear that they are moving away from that and starting to push out the fact that the vaccine is not to stop transmission, and substantially reduce has been replaced with "People who are double jabbed have a lower, but still appreciable, risk of becoming infected with the Delta variant compared with unvaccinated people" which is not a substantial reduction however you dress it up.

Boris blurted it out on the TV and even the BBC are reporting it, and now official government documents appear to be covering their tracks.

This is from the vaccine surveillance report and would not be anything reported on months ago when the push for the vaccine was at maximum levels. This infact seems to roll back and water down the hospitalisations and deaths by acknowledging "with Covid 19 rather than because of Covid 19".



This seems to be a government in rolling back on figures they originally pushed out to drive vaccine uptake, in order to justify them from calls from people who say the current death toll is a sign of government failure.

 

And that is the point. People catch it out of the household so reduce the mixing and get masks worn properly and transmission would reduce.

otherwise people will just have to learn with living with it and try at includes longer waits for NHS services etc.

 

This is because the situation has changed. Prior to the delta variant the evidence was that vaccination reduced contraction and transmission of Covid by around 50%. We now know that immunity from catching or passing on the Delta variant reduces to virtually zero within three months of being double jabbed.
So of course the BBC and other news outlets are reporting this. They aren't 'covering their tracks' they are reporting on a changed situation. Isn't that what news media does?

 

They have only just started reporting on this. I've been saying for some time this was the case and I have been shouted down as a flat earth covid denier for doing so.

I have posts going back to June saying I took the virus to protect me, not to prevent me from getting the virus. The media haven't openly been admitting that the virus can still fairly easily be passed on.

Anyhow Drakeford has just announced an extension to his Covid Pass on the back of this news. It gives people the confidence that they will be sat in a theatre with others who are double jabbed, when we know it's pointless and therefore giving off totally the wrong message.

He actually said in a reply to an answer when questioned about the Covid Pass it was too early to judge if it has been a success but he was rolling it out further anyhow, and without a hint of irony based on what we know about transmission between double jabbed people he said the pass continues to give people the confidence that they are sat among double jabbed people when at such events.

It sounds like it is coming to pubs and restaurants in Wales too in the coming month.

Still it's better than doing nothing I suppose, these rules are coming from a man who stopped you buying a kettle in tescos and suggested clothes were not essential items last year....

 

Latest video from DrTim Spencer of the Zoe App.

Zoe figures suggesting cases are now close to 100,000 per day. Government figures are an underestimate because most people aren't reporting Lateral Flow test results to the government, whereas they tend to do so to Zoe.
Also the government is still ridiculously only citing fever, loss of taste and smell and cough as symptoms worthy of Covid testing, even though the first two aren't even in the top five symptoms of Delta variant Covid.
So the government's figure are basically bunk.

 

People won't report LFT results to the government if they are negative, but if they are positive in most cases they would be followed up with a PCR test.

Also when they say people aren't looking from a list of 25 symptoms, thats balanced out by the fact that millions are testing with no symptoms at all, test just for the sake of testing and this can be seen in the drop off in testing this week compared to last week when school was not on half term.

The ONS today has reported that 1 in 50 people in England is likely to have covid which is actually a higher figure than the 1 in 56 that he quoted in that video. But again these figures are purely estimated figures taking on many assumptions. Scotland's figure went from 1 in 90 last week the first week return of schools to 1 in 75 the following week now schools are back.

If 1.3m people in the last week have had covid according to estimates then it actually paints a far better picture of the vaccines effect against hospitalisation and deaths than the figures released on a daily basis, because to have the levels we have now off a potential 100k+ cases per day is quite remarkable and must be preventing tens of thousands of deaths.


I still don't get the focus on cases however, I think an acceptance needs to be out there that people will get Covid at some stage now, but it will be mitigated to a mild illness for the vast majority. It will always come back the second you reopen society and it's looking as doing it over the summer months has probably helped more with hospital capacity than the expected increase that we are likely to see in the winter months.