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COVID-19

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by king karl, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    The bit in bold is the absolutely key bit. At any event there will be people there who are susceptible to the virus and also people ikely to be carrying it even if 100% of the people there are vaccinated. If you change that to 90% of the people there being vaccinated (or maybe even slightly lower) it changes the risk but in real terms not by much. Certainly not enough to create a two tier society based on medical preferences.

    I saw that about the A&E departments - although the bit that made me laugh is that in those reports it made absolutely no mention of whether it was even slightly covid related :joy:

    Numbers are going to go up dramatically but we have an enormous amount of headroom, there were over 30,000 covid patients in hospital for about a month earlier this year and there's currently just 1,100. That's not to say that I want 30,000 people in there but capacity is clearly available.

    But you've just absolutely nailed why I'm concerned about this "4 more weeks" outlook, I don't see any logical reason why numbers are going to get lower than they are currently or they aren't going to continue to rise exponentially, none of the modelling suggests a leveling off in the next 4 weeks. So we're no doubt going to get into a scenario where in four weeks time we'll be having exactly the same discussion with even less reason for them to take the plunge.

    I'm not sure that school holidays will have the same impact as they did when we were in lockdown either because the kids will be mixing outside of school anyway whereas previously school was the only place they mixed.
     
  2. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    Vaccines… if we carry on the rate we are at (approx. 500,000 a day) thats 14,000,000 vaccinations.
     
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  3. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    That's awesome. But it still doesn't mean numbers will be lower than they currently are.
     
  4. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    How so?
     
  5. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    If you can find any modelling that suggests it will then it would be the first I've seen.
     
  6. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    So why would the government be doing this then?
     
  7. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I think that's pretty much my point!!
     
  8. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    that implies you know everything the government knows.
     
  9. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    It's not meant to.
     
  10. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    Fair enough, I just find it illogical to question government policy without the relevant qualifications or knowledge on the matter.
     
  11. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    So you're saying that governments are always right?

    But I'm literally talking about their modelling anyway - which suggests things are going to continue going up - so I'm not saying that their information is wrong.
     
  12. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    So you're saying that governments are always right? does not equal "Fair enough, I just find it illogical to question government policy without the relevant qualifications or knowledge on the matter." No idea where you got that from.
     
  13. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    Can you show me this modeling, I'm interested to take a look at it.
     
  14. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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  15. Edin Nowhere

    Edin Nowhere Impact Sub
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    Another 3 deaths announced today.

    I'm so glad Boris is going to extend restrictions for another month for my own good, after all I have had one jab so I'm not as protected as the vulnerable who have had two, even though people of my age have done fine against the virus with their own immune system.

    I'm sure people thrown onto the unemployment scrap heap with thank those pushing for continued restrictions even though there is clear evidence the vaccine is working.
     
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  16. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    It does sound like an enormous number. However it's less than half of what is needed to give a second jab to those 12mill adults who have already only had one jab to date and to give two jabs to the 11mill of adults who have yet to have any jab at all. The Govt said only a couple of days that it was on target to give all adults a double jab before the end of July so it will need to up the jabbing rate to almost double the current rate to do that.

    I hope they get there quickly since at that point there is no reason for most of the current restrictions to remain in force!
     
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  17. Edin Nowhere

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    The average age of a Covid death is 82. It's pure fantasy that people all the way down to age 20 need two jabs to live a normal life. We really are fine now, I have had one jab and I feel in absolutely no risk, if I did I wouldn't expect everyone to sit at home to calm my fears.
     
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  18. WilsdenBantam

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    I booked my jabs online, had the first but the earliest date it lets me book the second is for the start of September. Safe to say July won’t be happening. Same with all my friends of my age(late 20’s), late August they’re in for at best.
     
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  19. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    Things are changing significantly. The Delta variant (now the dominant variant in the UK) is 60% more transmissble, ie it spreads much easily, than the Aplha variant and the efficacy rate of a single dose against the Delta variant is only 30% when it was 60% against the Alpha, ie more people will become infected. That doesn't mean there will be more deaths since most of the vulnerable groups - the elderly primarily - have been double jabbed. But it will lead to more hospitalisations amongst those younger people who have only had a single jab. That's what is already being experienced with most hospital admissions with Delta coming from the younger elements of our communities.
     
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  20. XCIV_Bantam

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