Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

I've found some "facts" to back me up. 9% of passengers intially test positive on one flight to Italy in early July, but another 12% only tested positive later. Please note it will be numerous other countries where the virus is very active and not just Bangladesh, and that Bangladesh virus prevalence seems to have fallen a bit in the last few weeks. I believe it is such immigrant movements that have been fuelling UK hot spots. Take them out and the infection rates in the general resident UK population continues to fall nicely.


https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/26190/bangladeshi-migrants-in-italy-stigmatized-over-coronavirus-certificate-scam

"On July 6, Italian authorities found 21 of 225 passengers on a flight from Dhaka to have the coronavirus. More passengers later tested positive, bringing the figure to 48. Some of them possessed certificates for a negative COVID-19 test from Dhaka, according to media reports."

"Iqbal Ahmed, Bangladesh's consulate general in Milan, told DW: "150 out of 1,600 Bangladeshi passengers returned to Italy from Dhaka on six chartered flights, and recently tested coronavirus positive." He added, "Some others have been infected after coming in contact with them. The infection rate is so high that it grabbed the attention of mainstream media and health authorities."

 

A boat of 16 or 17 illegal immigrants recently arrived in Lanzarote from Africa. 9 tested positive. Up until then they had 2 cases on the island, 1 a Lanzoronean who had returned home from Mexico tested positive and who was isolating at home and the other a british female holidaymaker. Her husband had felt poorly on arrival, went to be tested and was negative. His wife was tested and she was found to be positive so isolated at the hotel. 9 other people were tested in connection with these but were all negative. Did not say what connection these 9 had, whether they were all one large group or had been near them on the plane etc.

 

Up again to 39.

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/leeds-news/locations-every-single-101-newly-18666393

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 combined since available from 3rd of July is:
38 ,28,14,39,26,22,30,27, 21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39.

 

Numbers going back up again according to the T&A.

Can't be far off having some formal action taken.

 

But still not at the level when Leicester went into lockdown. Surely we have to be above that figure to go back into lockdown?

 

Why? I don't think that's necessarily a benchmark which HAS to be breached.

Consistently in the top 5/10 in the country and rising again. It's a ticking timebomb so eventually something will need to change or something will have to be done.

 

if it is done when lower the question would be why not then?

 

With some of Europe starting to see an uptick they're going to be even edgier than normal. They're back in a situation and maybe even a mindset where they aren't going to take chances.

 

Why? Is't Bradford like no 4th on the list?

Levels nowhere like Leicester or Oldham.

The media and the world really need to stop scaring people. No vaccine...We need to learn to live with this virus.

 

I agree we need to learn to live with it but people aren't learning. Or at least aren't consistently learning. It's not being scared, it's simply being informed.

I also agree that Oldham is in more 'danger' but as this second wave starts to hit Europe the tolerance of what is "acceptable" here will surely drop and they will take action sooner. Not being #1 won't be enough of a reason.

There have been places that have been up and down the list - Kirklees for example - but Bradford has been constantly top 5, they've done things to stop the spread such as more testing and it hasn't pushed it down. We know from phase one how quickly it can go from looking pretty steady to just rocketing up and when you're starting from a pretty high base then you'll get more scrutiny.

 

I'll say it and say it again.

The council and government urgently need to look to see if the the Asian community are asymmetric. I think the government know certain things but don't want to discriminate.

What we need is a faster postcode data and I think that will back up what I am saying.

Sorry but we seen mass gatherings in Leeds & Liverpool over recent weeks and they are still nowhere near the levels of Bradford.

Something isn't right.

Maybe, the warning about Bradford is because it Eid at the weekend I believe.

Bradford needs to get a grip of the situation asap and be honest.

 

I don't think there's any evidence or even any indication that the Asian community are more asymptomatic than anybody else. There is undoubtedly a strong correlation within areas with a large Asian community though but I still think that is behavioral, cultural and socio-economic though rather than the effects of the virus being different.

We've got postcode data haven't we? I can't seem to find it but i remember seeing them which indicated that Undercliffe and the University area were particularly badly hit. Locking down by postcode is difficult (if not impossible) anyway unless you're going to enforce a perimeter around it whereas closing all bars, shops, etc, in a city is easy.

If anything recent events seem to suggest that the governments initial outlook on large scale events might actually have been right. They don't seem to be pushing the rate up in the way you would logically think. It seems to be the more prolonged, friendly, gatherings which seem to be driving things but who knows?

Bradford does need to get a grip because it's right on the edge. Think about the criticism that the government took (probably rightly) for delaying by just a week in the first stage. In 6 months time do you think they want to be asking questions on "why didn't you lock Oldham/Bradford down sooner" or "Why didn't you leave Oldham/Bradford to sort things out for themselves"....We all know which will be the easier on to avoid criticism on.

 

Discriminate shouldn't come into it, we are talking about a virus that can be a killer it does not discriminate mate, there shouldn't be any reason not to investigate why certain ethnic groups are more prone to getting Covid-19.

 

Where's that brush?

 

Leicester, Oldham, Rochdale, Bradford, Luton.

Come on the link is clear. It's spreading in asian areas and the main issue with this virus is people being asymptomatic and if they're sharing houses etc in the main then for me they don't know they have it.

Leicester has been in lockdown for a month.

I just think like what @Bronco has said is correct. The government or scientist have to come out and just say how it really is.

The postcode date will more than likely highlight again it's the asian area's that mainly have the virus.

I don't want Bradford in lockdown. I live in Leeds and for me I believe Leeds can have a mass gathering and it will be fine but Bradford wont...The council needs to get a grip this ASAP or Bradford City can forget about opening up in October.

 

I know the link is clear but that doesn't mean that being asymptomatic is more prevalent. That's just you guessing about the link.

It is how it is. The data is out there and we know the postcodes. You don't need it actually spelling out to you do you.

As I say though. Having city wide restrictions is easier than having postcode specific restrictions so that is by far the more likely way they'll go.

 

I'm saying that all Asians are asymptotic but I would have them all tested by law.

We need to stop dancing around and get tough now.

 

Someone will pull you up on what technically has a lot of merit and is one of the reasons why levels have gone up in Bradford.