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Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by Dubois, Mar 20, 2020.

?

Let’s have another guess as to when it will Start (fans in Stadium)

  1. After November 2020 to December 2020

    10 vote(s)
    20.8%
  2. New Year 2021-End April 2021

    21 vote(s)
    43.8%
  3. August 2021

    6 vote(s)
    12.5%
  4. Never, the EFL and/or City will be obsolete

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Before end of October 2020

    11 vote(s)
    22.9%
  1. Lard Arse

    Lard Arse Impact Sub
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    and with not a hint of irony from a resident of Keefly :p
     
  2. Offside

    Offside Impact Sub

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    I'm alright Jack , . No lockdown for Cumbria . :p:p:p
     
  3. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    Lol. I am really surprised we haven't yet made it onto that list.

    It seems those shopping in Asda today are doing their best to try and spread the virus.:mad:

    If you don't understand what this sign means then you should not be allowed in the store. They are plastered everywhere on every other aisle but people are completely ignoring them and criss crossing across the aisle in front of people.
    noent2m-red-500x300.png
     
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  4. Lard Arse

    Lard Arse Impact Sub
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    BD20 pal, you sit 2nd on that league table.
     
  5. Bantamsteve

    Bantamsteve Impact Sub

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    Harsh
     
  6. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    Wonder how they will actually impose the impending lockdown. Skipton and Malham to be locked down as well?
     
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  7. Lard Arse

    Lard Arse Impact Sub
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    The good (& bad folk) of Settle BD24 in North Yorkshire, must as was most notably Gerald the Gorilla be 'Livid'
    The milennials wont have a clue with that analogy
    :D

    NB
    I was going to post a clip from youtube of the very funny Not the Nine O'clock sketch, but guess what it appears not to be on there now to satisfy the woke generation.
    Im sure many of us oldies on here will agree, t'was funny
     
    Interested Bystander and Bronco like this.
  8. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
    Bubbles car wash

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    Just Keighley and Cleckheaton hopefully and any other areas that have a high number.

    Seems madness locking down places like Baildon, Skipton etc that have none.

    The government have no clue how to handle this so I expect the whole of Yorkshire to be lockdown.
     
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  9. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    Whats the number in Keighley?
     
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  10. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    Will this suffice?
     
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  11. Rocket

    Rocket Regular Starter
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    Yeah not good I’ve started wearing my Cougars face mask .
     
  12. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
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    Not sure..pal..

    However, it needs to be broken down data by location. I disagree with locking down a complete City.

    The data has to be quality because it will damage businesses for no reason. If Keighley is fine for example then it shouldn't need locking down.
     
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  13. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    So why you want Keighley in lockdown? Talking out of your arse again.
     
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  14. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
    Bubbles car wash

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    Think they mentioned it in the commons that's why.
     
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  15. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    It's been seen repeatedly in mass swab tests of enclosed outbreaks that far more had it than expected and 70-80% of infections are fought off without symptoms. The article cited in the link indicates that first line of defence T-cells are fighting it off without infected people needing to make 2nd line of defence antibodies. Testing for antibodies will give you an incorrect number of people that have been infected if 2/3rds have not used them to fight off the virus. It explains why our scientists have been persistently too pessimistic with projections for Covid-19 and why some highly infected places seem to be showing immunity at 15%+ people with antibodies. Have 45%+ actually been infected? The following places might well have near herd immunity - Sweden, New York (and several other northeastern states), UK, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium and to a lesser degree Ireland and Netherlands. These are still seeing falling levels of new cases (allowing for increasing testing) as they unlock while other countries are seeing rising positive tests. If it's not the high infection rates giving immunity, why else is the virus still fading in these countries and states while low infection countries report rises? Is it just a coincidence that all the higher infected countries are still seeing falling new cases as they unlock, middling countries are tending to be steadier and lower infected countries are starting to see rises. It's rather a big coincidence across a lot of countries for me. I'm open to other suggestions for it, though.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Virus and deaths have not levelled off yet. They're still falling. Check by "Actual Death Date" and the deaths just keep falling. Headline"reported" numbers in main media are contaminated with older deaths dragged forward into todays "report". We've only got around 30 dying per day now. Okay, some are dying in care homes and domestic residences to top this up a bit but their cause is less easily determined with any certainty. Hospital deaths are still firmly falling and would not be if the virus had stopped fading away.

    http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

    Swab testing, though still showing decreasing positives, could be flattening out a bit due to false positives - a known problem when testing for few infections with lots of swab tests. (I gather we are doubling up on swab tests when they get a positive but that might still generate a couple of hundred false positives per every 100k tested. Now that we are reporting less than 1000 positives per day. I'm wondering if more than 20% might be false?)

    https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-accurate-are-coronavirus-tests-135972
     
    #2535 Aleman, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  16. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I'm not going to get into long conversations about it and like I say I appreciate your positivity but I can't help feeling you're focusing on just half a story.

    The T-Cell article is interesting but specifically said "This doesn't necessarily get us any closer to herd immunity, though" however you presented the opposite conclusion.

    As for the daily death rate we have to also consider the lag in that reporting. Not all deaths get reported the next day obviously.

    I feel like you're emphasising the positives as you have since the beginning but looking for statistical errors when things don't show what you want them to.

    By far the biggest reason for the drop in all numbers will simply be that people aren't living their normal lives even outside of lockdown. Less commuting, less mingling at work, less confined socialising. We can all look at the figures and hope this whole thing is going away but it simply isnt. Herd immunity and the virus getting weaker are simply figments of the imagination at this point.
     
    #2536 Aaron Baker, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  17. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    How can having 3 times as many people being infected as thought from blood antibody tests NOT take us closer to herd immunity? If London has 45-60% infected instead of 15-20% shown in blood tests, that is clearly MUCH closer to herd immunity. Same goes for all highly infected cities.

    I don't mind being criticised as positive. I've had worse compliments!

    A weakening virus is not my imagination. It's somebody else's possible reason from a few touted.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-death-rate-from-covid-19-in-hospitals-in-england/

    "Patients are entering the hospital with less severe disease, which could be a reflection of either the disease becoming less severe or hospitals that are now less concerned with being unable to manage peak infections being more willing to admit patients with lower disease severity than they would admit in early April."


    Arkansas has 5 reporting regions. It's previously most infected area has become its least infected area as the state's numbers have deteriorated. What is causing the Southeast to have falling cases as the others rise? (2nd image.)

    https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/post/northwest-arkansas-makes-over-65-new-covid-19-cases

    Arkansas has become one of the problem states but cases in that Southeast region remain very low - only 1.8% of the states hospitalisations and 2 of 18 ICU beds in use while the other regions are at least 50%. What did the Southeast do to avoid the second wave?

    https://www.kuaf.com/post/arkansas-reports-another-highest-single-day-rise-covid-19-community-cases

    I think the high infection it got already is probably protecting it, just like high previous infection is protecting New York and several other US states, and middling infection rates are seeing Brasil and Mexico peak and slow down. The countries and states that had low infection rates until now are the ones seeing recent rises. Those moving from low to middling slow down and peak and those that get into the high area just keep falling. I see it repeatedly despite varying conditions and times of lockdown. I think it's likely to be herd immunity until a better explanation comes along.
     
    #2537 Aleman, Jul 2, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
  18. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Having 3 times as many people infected would take us closer to herd immunity obviously but you speak like it's a fact when it's very much a vague theory. The article you source literally said it so why ignore that aspect?

    Is didn't say it was your imagination specifically that the virus is weakening but even that source you cite lists it as one of many possible outcomes with not even a hint of proof. It is as close to being part to their imagination as saying aliens are killing the virus for us! One again it literally says "The reasons for this steep and continual decline in the deaths per day in the hospital of patients with COVID-19 are unknown" prior to your quote.

    If your theory is that herd immunity is dropping the rate across the world then that's fine but you have to also acknowledge that there is no actual proof of it. You've presented articles on that basis for probably 2 or 3 months but we still have no proof.

    Behavioral changes of people combined with a "management" of the statistics by governments are by far the most likely contributors to the dropping rate and anomalous stats. People in highly affected areas are simply more likely to take it seriously than people who haven't yet seen the effects first hand. Would that not be a very natural assumption?
     
  19. loz

    loz Impact Sub

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    Keighley should NOT be put back on lockdown. It has the best large brewery in the country.
     
  20. loz

    loz Impact Sub

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    There is another way of achieving herd immunity and let's hope our scientists find this quickly. Winter coming on is worrying for experiences of other countries show the likelihood of another spike. At this rate L'm never gunna get another haircut and believe me, old grey haired men shouldn't have ponytails.
     
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