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Brexit

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Park bantam, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    That is exactly the reason we are leaving the EU who are still trying to control the UK, If we choose to be a "Tiger" economy such as Singapore we should be free to do so and not controlled by a bunch of other countries who do not have our interests at the heart of any decisions they make,
     
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  2. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    I have always thought Brexit was a stupid idea and still do. However in a democratic vote the British people wanted it.
    We are now in the midst of Economic disaster we have no trade deals signed with any country and under the present circumstances we are unlikely to get any. Two of our best prospects look a lot less likely now. In the US trump is on his last legs and who knows what the next administration will do and China is in crisis and likely to have action against it..
    We need to keep aligned to the E U for at least an extra year if not it Will be financiall suicide
     
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  3. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    And that's exactly why I've always thought leaving the EU is such a stupid idea.
    Being in the single market and the Social Chapter was the best protection we've ever had from letting the nutters on the far right of the Tory party get hold of our economy and destroy 100 years of social rights and progress in the pursuit of a quick buck.
    Ten years of Tory austerity and penny pinching has left us scandalously unprepared and exposed to Covid 19 in a far worse way than most other developed economies. Pursuing a No Deal Brexit at a time of international recession is the height of folly and recklessness. It will damage us beyond recognition and take us decades to recover from.
     
    #2403 Offcomedun, May 23, 2020
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  4. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    We have over 20 agreements with other trading partners now in place and 16 in negotiation including Canada and the USA
    We trade with most of the world at present without FT agreements in place,
     
    #2404 trevor, May 23, 2020
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  5. Bronco

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    Trump will be re-elected IMO before this pandemic he'd got the US economy buzzing, and even accepting he hasn't done a great job of Covd-19 the people who want cities such as New York opening are blaming the Democrates.
     
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  6. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    I doubt Trump will be elected the U S has gone into a massive slump with huge unemployment. He might have scraped back before this but not now
     
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  7. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    I think 8 out of our top 10 trading partners are European countries. It’s not the time to risk that take an extra year. That is of course the E U will allow it
     
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  8. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    If that was the case all present leaders of countries should go.
    Surely this pandemic and the consequences cant be laid at Trumps door, as it cant be laid at Boris's door, when things do get back to some kind of normality he is the right man to get the worlds largest economy going again.
     
  9. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    You have summed the situation up why we want out of the EU in that comment, if they allow it, I think some people need to get real mate we are leaving face it.
     
  10. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    Possibly so but added to what is going to be a very bad time for the country this is going to make it far worse
     
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  11. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    Of course we are leaving. That's no longer an issue. When @Park bantam@Park bantam said 'if they let us', he meant, if they let us have an extension (which is theirs to give or not). He didn't mean 'if they let us leave'. The EU can't stop us from leaving.

    The question is, do we take our time, extend the transition and try to get a sensible deal, which will inevitably involve accepting some EU standards etc? Or do we jump off a No Deal cliff and leave ourselves facing punitive tariffs and expensive customs checks at a time when our economy is in the toilet because of Covid 19?
    No sensible Prime Minister would lead us into the second scenario in current circumstances. But we don't have a sensible Prime Minister, we have a feckless glory hunter in charge, so we will probably end up following the worst case scenario.
     
    #2411 Offcomedun, May 23, 2020
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  12. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    Yes, we trade with the rest of the world using the trade deals that the EU have negotiated on our behalf. We haven't needed independent trade deals because we've traded as an EU member, on EU terms. All of those EU trade deals stop dead the moment we finally leave.
     
  13. Bronco

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    I believe June is the cut off point where if nothing is looking like being agreed the Government have said there is little point continuing.
    I accept you'll disagree but after this pandemic allows more normality there will be many countries more than happy to do deals with a wealthy country like the UK.
     
  14. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    I doubt that. Our international reputation has taken severe blows recently. Most of the world thinks that Brexit is utterly bonkers. They cannot see why we would willingly leave the most powerful trading bloc on the planet. And much of the world is aghast at our utterly inept handling of the pandemic. They don't understand how, with several weeks more notice than many countries and the advantages of being an island, we have contrived to end up as one of the world's worst hit countries. Add in Johnson's international reputation as a liar and a shirker and I think many countries will be very wary in their future dealings with us.
    But even if you're right, trade deals take years, sometimes decades, to sort out. So we will be stuck on disadvantageous WTO terms at the worst possible time, when our economy has been shattered by the pandemic. And meantime, if we rush into leaving with no deal, our trade with our biggest market - Europe - will be hamstrung by tariffs and customs checks. It's a perfect storm, guaranteed to hamstring our recovery for years to come.
    It's hardly surprising that little progress has been made in the last few months, is it? The only sensible course is to extend the transition while we, and the EU, deal with the pandemic, and then try to take our time to negotiate a sensible compromise deal.
     
  15. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    I really struggle to understand our position on this at the moment.

    Firstly no other country has ever left an existing trading bloc to voluntarily return to WTO terms. Every other country has wanted to transition from the WTO to their local trading bloc because of their proximity and their ease of access, even little old Mauritania which was the last country to rely exclusively on WTO. Every other country prefers a local trading bloc to the WTO and yet we see it completely differently. And without a trade deal with the EU, we'll replace Mauritania to become the only country which trades with the rest of the world exclusively on WTO terms without trading with its local trading blocneighbours. (I'll ignore the trade agreements we've recently agreed with Kosovo, the Faroe Isleands and the Palesinian Authority intentionally)

    Secondly, for whatever reason, most people want to completely leave the EU's rules of the single market and customs union and jurisdiction of the EU's supreme court, the ECJ. These same people agree that we should subject ourselves to the WTO's own trading rules and regulations and the WTO's own dispute settlement court where we have less influence.

    Thirdly, about 80% of our modern economy, relies on the services sectors. And our exports already reflect this. But the WTO is silent on trading arrangements involving services. There is no provision in the WTO tariffs and schedules for services at all. THe WTO rules were never designed for a modern, services based economy such as our own. When we trade in services selling our expertise to others, we do it via the EU's own non-WTO, bi-lateral trade agreements. All of this will end if we leave the EU without a trade agreement in place and those countries we trade with in services don't agree subsequently to roll-over those agreements.

    Finally, despite what the PM (and his predecessor) has said previously, we are now splitting the United Kingdom in two from a customs perspective. Northern Ireland will be in the EU's customs jurisdiction (and therefore subject to the ECJ) and GB won't be. There will be a customs barrier between the parts of the UK to avoid any customs checks on the island of Ireland. But worryingly, I suspect that will only heighten pressure for NI to become ever closer to Ireland with all that entails for the future.

    It just doesn't make sense when looking at our own country's economic prospects.
     
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  16. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    But we will have our own, exclusive, blue passports, so who cares, eh?
     
  17. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    That reminds me.......
     
  18. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    Are they the blue ones designed by a French/Dutch company and manufactured in Poland? ;)

    ps It's ironic but even within the EU, our Govt could still have chosen to have a blue passport! The Prime Minister at the time wanted a burgundy one to keep it in line with other EU countries.
     
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  19. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    I think the fact is that for most committed Brexiteers, economics isn't the main issue, whereas for most Remainers its a very big deal.
    It seems to me that most people who are strong supporters of Brexit are motivated by two main issues. One is their belief that being in the EU compromises our sovereignty and prevents us doing what we want to do. The second is restricting the entry of non-Brits into this country.
    There are some who genuinely believe that Brexit is going to produce opportunities for economic benefits that will outweigh the losses, but for the majority I believe that economics is well behind the other two issues in their priorities. I think this leads them to minimise or choose to ignore the vast bulk of mainstream economic opinion, which sees Brexit as economically very damaging to us. There have even been polls that showed that for many strong Brexit supporters, years, or even decades, in the economic doldrums were a price worth paying to be out of the EU. Tellingly, the older those polled were the more likely they were to hold this view, since it would have far less affect on their lives than for younger people.
     
  20. Bigrod

    Bigrod Captain
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    We are far less wealthy than we were 5 years ago. The Pound buys far less Euro’s!
    upload_2020-5-23_15-9-41.png
     

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