World war 3....

9 March 2022: bombing of (yet another) hospital, to go with new and previous attacks on civilian spaces resulting in numerous civilian deaths and destruction of said spaces

9 March 1944: bombing of Tallinn with destruction of residential areas, resulting in well over 500 civilians killed, and some 20,000 left homeless -- including my Gran and her two daughters, who some months later fled the country, preferring to risk death on the way to an uncertain future in strange lands to certain death in the gulags...

The indiscriminate bombings, the complete unconcern for people's lives, the desire to terrorise, the images of destroyed homes, the people fleeing with the clothes on their backs and a suitcase each...it is all too familiar, and hits all too close to home.

There was an excellent piece in the Telegraph about the state and behaviour of the Russian army in Ukraine, written by a former soldier:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/09/take-russians-win-former-cold-war-soldier/

In essence, pathetically poor planning on all levels leads to pathetically poor performance. Two extracts:

"...Today, it seems weird watching the Ukrainian Army doing so well at what we trained to do. But one thing is missing from all the media reports so far – the total absence of any understanding of what it’s like for the infantry soldier on the ground. And often that is the key to what’s happening.

The apparent military incompetence of the Russian Army in Ukraine has been startling. Miles of static armoured and mechanised convoys. Cities like Kharkiv, only 20 miles or so from the Russian border, unoccupied and undefeated. And most revealing, evidence of the pathetic state of ordinary Russian soldiers, out of fuel, out of food and out of morale.

My view that something was very, very wrong in their basic military management was reinforced by video footage of troops advancing into an urban area: all the basics were missing. Troops clung around their small, lightly armoured vehicle. Others were strung out either side, ambling along in no discernible formation. Their reaction to incoming small-arms fire was almost risible – no organised response, no immediate return of fire, no smoke and no supporting fire. And the real giveaway? The vehicle was reversing down its axis of advance, ready for a quick escape.

Any army is only as good as its individual soldiers. The British Army has learnt this lesson multiple times in its illustrious history. Look after your soldiers and they will fight well. Neglect them and your war effort will fall apart. They are your most precious asset. This lesson does not appear to have been learnt by the Russians.

...

The army trained me exquisitely in how to defeat the Russians. It centred around immaculate and detailed preparation, thorough training, teamwork and sound leadership at all levels from the ground up, to maintain the fighting efficiency and morale of the individual soldier. Given the evidence I have seen, it is not just the higher levels of strategic decision-making that explain the apparent lack of progress of the Russians. It is their callous failure to look after and manage the individual soldiers whom they require to engage in close fighting against a determined Ukrainian Army. And yet another reason why blasting cities into brick dust is their default option."

RCB

 

NATO will not implement a no fly zone over Ukraine for fear of it being classed by Putin as supporting a no NATO allie, so why wouldn't NATO nations supplying the Ukraine army with military goods be classed the same by Putin.
Watching this invasion unfold it looks like certain areas the Russians are not making the sort of advances Putin and many thought they would, would Putin dare use unconventional weapons chemical, biological, or nuclear, to bring it to an end.

 

I think the point is, Dave, that if NATO were to declare a no fly zone that would almost certainly end up with NATO planes having to shoot down Russian planes that enter the zone. Putin would then regard that as a NATO declaration of war against Russia and we'd be into WW3, which NATO obviously wants to avoid.

It is clear that things are not going at all to plan for Putin, both militarily and in the strength of united western economic opposition, which he badly underestimated. Who knows what lengths he's prepared to go to to save face?

 

Yes I get that but why would NATO countries supplying military assistance to Ukraine be classed as the same Steve ?.

 

Because countries supply other countries with arms all the time without being involved in the conflicts/wars those arms get used in. It's not the same as NATO forces directly engaging in combat with Russian troops.

 

It's as I mentioned earlier when talking about realpolitik -- you get these "weird" situations where supplying arms is fine, but not joining in and using them yourselves; an economic blockade is fine but a naval blockade would be an act of war...and thus the problems with Poland (or anyone else) giving Ukraine their old MiGs. If flown into Ukraine from Poland (or another NATO country) by Polish (i.e. NATO) pilots, then there would be the chance that those pilots would get into a dogfight with Russians, and thus be joining the war. If flown by Ukrainian pilots, then there is still the problem of launching from a NATO airfield to possibly engage with Russians. I've seen a suggestion that perhaps the planes could be partly dismantled and taken in by road or rail, to be reassembled in Ukraine. That would be alright, but I've no idea if that is feasible.

In normal life one never really thinks about these sorts of things (well, I don't), but this all does drive home how complicated wars and international relations actually are.

RCB

 

I hope Putin sees it that way.

 

The weapons supplied are described as defensive weapons ie Anti aircraft missiles defensive so can be supplied to defend a nation, Planes and some missiles etc are defined as Offensive weapons capable of attacking an opponent so supply of those would be in effect an act of war

 

A simple way to look at it is ourselves supply arms to the likes of Saudi Arabia and Israel, does that mean we’re at war with Yeman and Palestine? I believe we have also done arms deals with Russia before, it’s totally different to actually attacking a countries military directly. Where the waters could get muddied could be if these Polish plains find themselves into Ukrainian hands which could help tip the balance in Putins mind and put Ukraine on the offensive. Probably why Poland want to act all noble but have passed responsibility onto USA as they haven’t the balls just to send the planes over themselves.

 

There is wonderful irony about being attacked with weapons your own country has helped produce. No morals in war though, only rich people and dead foot soldiers.

 

In effect if Poland supplies offensive weapons like aircraft fighters it could give a legitimate excuse for Russia to attack Poland, Then a European war would be likely, As distasteful as it is we have to abandon Ukraine to its fate which to some part was self inflicted, Like Putin Zelensky has a lot to answer for,

 

That's my point a lunatic like Putin will spin it which ever way it suites him.
You have to have sympathy with the Ukrainian people but now Zelensky is asking for a no fly zone which would then bring NATO into this conflict.
Right up to the invasion Zelensky was telling everyone there was no threat from the Russians.

 

Would this make any difference to the Russian hierarchy they'd just replace him with another nutter.

 

I think it would. Putin seems obsessed with this almost holy crusade (he has the Church on his side) to reconstitute the Empire, to the extent that he is deranged on this point, even if sane on others. Even if there would be a ceasefire and retreat tomorrow, he's still damaged Russia for decades, both internally and in the eyes of (most of) the rest of the world. I'm not so sure that this prospect pleases all those who would see themselves as successors.

Putting a bullet or two into him might not be the solution, but it would be a good first step.

RCB

 

We;ve been fighting proxy wars against them and other countries for years in various theatres by dint of who we've supplied arms to and trained. It's part of the reason syria/libya/ etc didnt start world war three already.

 

It's largely NATO's fault for expanding so close to russia. There was a way to achieve a workable solution, but because the americans wanted to stick military bases on putin's doorstep those options are gone now. Zelensky hasn't always helped but this is very a much problem NATO initiated in many ways. Zelensky's just looking out for his country's interest the exact same way we look out for ours etc. Why would he care about a world war when his country is already fighting a massive invasion.

 

As you say with regards sanctions once this is over it will be decades before Russia is back to any sortof normality, the younger Russians will not tolerate that and will look for change.

Watching a video clip of a young girl living in the Ukraine and was talking to her mother who lived in Russia telling her about the situation, the kid was heartbroken saying her mother didn't believe her own daughter over the Russian properganda.

 

ha, that can’t be much of a church, can it? Standing up for actions that we are seeing. In it’s purest sense, religion should be totally at odds with what is happening, it’s just a shame that, like many things it can be hi-jacked and bent to the will of people with awful motivations and vested interests. For balance, I guess at least there has been total condemnation from other religious leaders.

things seem to be escalating at more pace judging by the news, I just hope the Ukrainians can hold on to Kyiv, but it’s not just there, some if the footage yesterday of people fleeing, tears in their eyes, it’s despicable. Sadly it happens elsewhere too in other conflicts, we never learn, what an absolute coward Putin, is.

 

Although this is Putin's war the USA has a lot to answer for in their encouragement of Ukrain to taunt Russia with joining NATO