The Voice - Match preview Bradford City vs MK Dons Saturday 22nd February 3:00pm

EFL League Two Fixture #32
Saturday 22nd February 2025 15:00
Bradford City (5th) vs MK Dons (16th)
University of Bradford Stadium (AKA Valley Parade)

Record:
Games Won: 12
Games Drawn: 1
Games Lost: 6

Last 5:
07 Oct 2017: MK Dons 1 – 4 Bradford City
24 Apr 2018: Bradford City 2 – 0 MK Dons
24 Oct 2023: MK Dons 4 – 1 Bradford City
13 Feb 2024: Bradford City 4 – 0 MK Dons
10 Aug 2024: MK Dons 1 – 2 Bradford City

MK Dons:
To say the season has not panned out how MK Dons would have hoped pre-season would be a dramatic understatement. After an unexpectedly poor start for the side installed as second favourites by some bookmakers in the Summer, the Milton Keynes-based side swung the axe on former Gateshead manager Mike Williamson’s time at the club, installing former Crawley Town miracle worker Scott Lindsey in late September.

Lindsey was able to turn the side’s fortunes around for a spell, his new side losing just once in the league in their first 9 outings, and though a couple of cup exits coincided with this much improved run, the Dons blasted past sides like Bradford City in the league table, landing themselves right in the promotion mix as a result. That good form has not held out, however, as 9 defeats from their last 14 games have seen the MK side plummet back down to 16th in the League Two table. Despite almost wholesale changes in the January transfer window, with 9 players departing on either loan deals or permanent transfers and making way for a full 8 new faces, Lindsey has been unable to get his side firing. 3 separate 3-match losing streaks of late have left MK Dons 10 points off the playoff pace, with no immediate signs of a resurgence in sight.

It's not that MK Dons haven’t invested. All 5 permanent transfers were signed on ‘undisclosed’ deals, including the eye-catching arrival of Dan Crowley from Notts County, as well as the arrival of striker Danilo Orsi from Burton Albion (once again linking up with Lindsey) on loan. Alex Gilbey (10) is the side’s top scorer, with Joe White (6) and veteran striker Scott Hogan (6) in pursuit for a side that can certainly score, but who have looked flimsy at the back for most of the campaign. Of all the sides above them, only Newport County (15th) and Grimsby Town (9th) have conceded more, with heavy defeats at Newport County (6-3) and Walsall (4-2) ranking as their poorest defensive performances outside a 5-0 tonking at Watford in the FA Cup first round.

2-1 has been the most common scoreline for MK Dons of late, with 3 defeats and 2 victories by that same scoreline in their past 10 games, speaking of a level of inconsistency possibly attributable to the Dons failing to control games. One positive during recent dark times has been the potential partnership and form of Scott Hogan (2 goals in his last 4 games) and Danilo Orsi (grabbing a goal in his first start last weekend), who may yet have a say in the club’s fortunes in the final third of the season.

On the flipside, the aforementioned Alex Gilbey (10 goals) has now managed just 1 goal in his past 14 appearances, his once red hot form now well and truly cooled. Interestingly, Gilbey was at the heart of MK Dons’ purple patch in late October through to early November, netting 6 times in 6 games. Moreover, his side won 8 of the 9 games in which Gilbey has scored this season. The only team to beat MK Dons despite Gilbey scoring? Bradford City, on the opening day of the campaign.

A recent 1-1 draw at Tranmere Rovers was greeted with disappointment by manager Scott Lindsey, who felt his players have been “doubting themselves” of late. Praising his side’s effort, Lindsey simultaneously decried his side’s sense of “fear” and anxiety and took full responsibility upon himself for that. No doubt he will look to inspire a reaction in a nightmarishly tough trip to Valley Parade this coming Saturday, against a side buoyed (or perhaps deflated?) after a heroic, but ultimately losing effort at St Andrews on Tuesday evening.

Tranmere Rovers 1 – 1 MK Dons


Barrow 2 – 1 MK Dons


Bradford City:
While the EFL Trophy has not been a particular focus of these articles this season, it would be nonsense to dismiss the relevance of Tuesday evening’s efforts at League One leaders Birmingham City. A cracking effort from the Bantams saw them push Birmingham City all the way, ultimately losing out to a late headed goal from substitute Lyndon Dykes. That came after Bobby Pointon had fired home from close range to cancel out £15 million hitman Jay Stansfield’s opener, although there were strong appeals for a penalty after an incident that saw Stansfield stretchered off that could have made the scoreline more comfortable for the Midlanders.

Romoney Crichlow was clumsy at worst in a challenge lacking any real malice on the Birmingham City speedster, but that Crichlow landed hard on the forward’s leg was salt in the wound after referee Scott Oldham had already waved away calls for a spot kick. Bradford City subsequently went up the other end and netted, before ultimately being undone by the sheer strength-in-depth available to the opposition. An expensively assembled side, Birmingham City were able to introduce the kinds of players the Bantams can only dream about at this stage, and their own lack of any realistic forward options on the night ended up being the main difference. City simply did not have anyone the calibre of Dykes or even Alfie May on the bench.

Few will give Graham Alexander’s men anything other than huge credit for their efforts, and there will be a welcome boost with a slew of players back in the squad for Saturday’s home game against MK Dons. Striker Michael Mellon, attacking midfielder Tommy Leigh, as well as George Lapslie, Tayo Adaramola, and Brandon Khela (a Birmingham City loanee, no less) were all cup-tied on Tuesday night.

But how do Bradford City respond now? The performance in Birmingham earned plenty of plaudits, as did the previous 0-0 draw at Newport County after City were forced to play 73 minutes (plus stoppage time) with 10 men following the dismissal of Jack Shepherd for a professional foul, but neither game resulted in a win. As a result, Bradford City’s away record remains largely mediocre, though at Valley Parade the Bantams have unquestionably dug in deep and created a veritable fortress for themselves.

There is every indication that City’s excellent recent defensive record can continue, even if they are a little short of firepower up front at the moment and even in the face of Jack Shepherd's pending suspension, but it might ultimately be goals at the other end of the pitch that are needed against a side that can both score and concede in equal measure. Do City have the fitness levels and attacking might after such a congested fixture list to continue their dominance at home? Or is this a game too many?

BONUS: Birmingham City 2 – 1 Bradford City


Newport County 0 – 0 Bradford City


Bradford City 1 – 0 Accrington Stanley

 

Prediction:
It seems likely that MK Dons will pose a threat, even at Valley Parade. Scott Hogan and Danilo Orsi may be a brand new pairing, but both have shown that they can score at this level. That said, and with the side sat joint 9th in the xG table, it is their shocking defensive deficiencies that have been the majority of their problems this campaign. Sat as low as 19th in the xGA table, and with the third worst defensive record in the top 16, Scott Lindsey’s issues have revolved around a back line that recently failed to keep out the direct artillery of struggling Tranmere Rovers as both sides were forced to share the spoils.

The question now is, are Bradford City equipped to take advantage of that poor defensive record? With Antoni Sarcevic and Alex Pattison the standout attacking threats of late, City’s goalscoring prowess has definitely dipped. While the club responded magnificently to the loss of talismanic striker Andy Cook, the Bantams have now scored just 5 goals in 7 games across all competitions. While the competition has been of a high quality at times (Birmingham City, Rotherham United and AFC Wimbledon, for example), there have also been plenty of games against struggling sides in Morecambe, Carlisle United, Harrogate Town, and Accrington Stanley – all of whom City successfully (but uninspiringly) contained across a string of 1-0 wins.

That ability to ‘contain’ sides is a wonderful trait, but also prone to misfortune. What happens when the club concede first (AFC Wimbledon and Birmingham City), or suffer an unfortunate red card (Newport County)? The answer is, Bradford City haven’t been able to turn things round in such circumstances. Factor in the possibility of several changes to the side that worked so hard for so long at St Andrews, and City’s chances get a bit murkier.

Very reliant on a hard-working, high-pressing, high-quality midfield quartet of Smallwood, Sarcevic, Pointon and Pattison, any disruption to the selection of those players has resulted in far less convincing performances. In other words, if Graham Alexander is to brave the changes and rest any of Sarcevic, Pattison or Pointon, the chances of scoring goals go down... as do the chances of a 3 point haul.

Not to put too fine a point on it, any goal from MK Dons, regardless of it's nature, will mean Bradford City have to do something they haven’t managed since January 25th – score twice. Frankly, I don’t like the chances of that happening at present. The pick, then, will be a 1-1 draw, though the possibility of another 1-0 City home win cannot be dismissed out of hand, particularly against a side the Bantams have had a real edge over in recent years. Let's hope for a win, but be prepared for a draw.

Final Score:
Bradford City 1 – 1 MK Dons