The Voice - Match preview #31: Newport County vs Bradford City Saturday 15th February 2025 3:00pm

EFL League Two Fixture #31
Saturday 15th February 2025 15:00
Newport County (14th) vs Bradford City (3rd)
Rodney Parade

Record:
Games Won: 24
Games Drawn: 9
Games Lost: 18

Last 5:
13 Aug 2022: Bradford City 2 – 0 Newport County
11 Mar 2023: Newport County 1 – 1 Bradford City
23 Sep 2023: Newport County 1 – 4 Bradford City
27 Apr 2024: Bradford City 4 – 1 Newport County
07 Oct 2024: Bradford City 3 – 1 Newport County

Newport County:
Newport County sit 14th in the EFL League Two table but have recently put together their best win streak since August 2022 with 4 straight victories. Narrow wins over strugglers Carlisle United (1-0), Morecambe (2-1) and Barrow (1-0) are augmented by a quality victory over a now out-of-form Crewe Alexandra (3-0), but perhaps this recent run has not been as convincing as it might first appear. Both Barrow and Carlisle United have good cause to say they should have done better given that both sides were sunk despite largely outplaying the Welsh side.

Carlisle United in particular felt hard done to under new manager Mark Hughes when Newport County netted the winner with their only shot on target, while Barrow also spurned the majority of chances in their game at Rodney Parade (Barrow managed 11 shots on goal, Newport County managed just 3). But such trifling statistics matter little when a side begins to consistently churn out results, and nobody knows that better than Bradford City fans of late. Now no strangers to ‘unconvincing’ 1-0 wins, Bradford City could yet build a promotion season on the back of such outings.

Likewise, The Exiles under head coach Nelson Jardim aren’t likely to dwell too much on how much fortune they relied on, although there is, naturally, room for improvement. Rodney Parade is now the 10th toughest away day, at least according to the current ‘Home’ league table, where Newport County have won 8 of their 14 league fixtures. The reality is, Newport County might be even higher in the ‘Home’ league table – they have played fewer games than almost all of the sides ahead of them, and a win over Bradford City on Saturday could see them propelled into the top 5. Food for thought, then, for any side who aren’t so convincing on the road.

Newport County aren’t doing anything particularly amazing at home, at least statistically. 24 goals scored from 14 games is, admittedly, a decent haul, but the 19 shipped at the other end is very average. Still, if Newport County’s dismal away record was as good as their form at Rodney Parade, they would likely be breathing down the necks of the promotion chasers towards the top! Whether that is a source of comfort for Newport fans and Jardim himself is up for debate, but what is not in question is that they do enjoy their home comforts and they can provide a goal threat from all over the pitch.

Giant striker Kyle Hudlin (6) leads the scoring ranks, but Bobby Kamwa (5) and Aaron Wildig (4) are not far behind, while Bryn Morris (3), defender Matt Baker (3) and Courtney Baker Richardson (3) have all contributed to an overall tally of 41 league goals this season – surprisingly, 1 goal more than Bradford City have scored.

Huddersfield Town loanee Hudlin did score with a header at Valley Parade earlier this season in a 3-1 defeat for Newport County, and while his aerial threat is obvious it is definitely not the entire story. Hudlin’s winner against Carlisle United was the result of a neat finish from a through ball on the break, though again that was the only effort on target his side manufactured all game. While there are negative narratives there, there are also positives ones: Newport County are clearly resilient at home, and goalkeeper Nick Townsend has now conceded just 1 goal in his last 4 games – and 1 goal from open play in his last 5 when we consider Salford City’s effort in a 1-1 draw came from the penalty spot. That’s a great statistic and show just how tough it might prove to be to break this Newport County side down, let alone on home soil.

Newport County 1 – 0 Carlisle United


Crewe Alexandra 0 – 3 Newport County


Bradford City:
Bradford City continued their momentum with another 1-0 shut out of a struggling side in the form of Accrington Stanley. The low-scoring nature of the contest was almost a bit too predictable, as Bradford City once again failed to press further advantage after a scintillating long range drive from man-of-the-match Alex Pattison. This time, though, unlike in recent 1-0 wins over Morecambe and Harrogate Town, Bradford City had to rely on luck rather than judgement as Jack Shepherd deflected a shot on to the bar that bounced off the line, with Sam Walker watching on helplessly. Jamie Walker did later clip the bar with a cross, however, perhaps equalling things out a little more.

8 game win streaks on home soil will involve some fortune, though, and to focus overly on recent patchy performances would be unjust. City’s form at Valley Parade has been extraordinary, and the recent goals just as good. The question now is, can they begin to repeat some of that success away from home?

Cup games aside, Bradford City have won just 1 of their last 8 away fixtures. Since mid-December, the Bantams have been stuffed 3-0 at Notts County and shut out by AFC Wimbledon by a goal to nil. A 2-2 draw at Barrow on New Year’s Day was far from pretty, leaving a 1-0 triumph at the bottom side Carlisle United their sole victory on the road since October 12th. Their only other away day successes have come at Tranmere Rovers and MK Dons on the opening day. Not exactly inspiring stuff.

It is perhaps fortunate, then, that a feel-good factor has been gained from a pile up of home fixtures. With 8 of their last 12 league games all being played at Valley Parade (and all resulting in victory, of course), as well as a couple of away victories in the EFL Trophy, City’s momentum has been fearsome. But it could also be somewhat misleading…

Now would be the right time to prove that sentiment wrong. Doubts about City’s away form, and the real possibility that it will hinder them in their chase for the automatic promotion spots, can be rectified with a spell of better away form. Some argue that if you win your home games and average a point away from home, you will do well – but will it be good enough for a side that likely seek to avoid the playoff lottery and achieve promotion without the mayhem of that mini-tournament? As it stands, with City sitting 3rd in the League Two table but having played 1 game more than the likes of Notts County and AFC Wimbledon, it’s just too tight to call.

It would be heartbreaking for any team to be the single best home side in the division and still not achieve promotion. Needless to say, a lot now hinges on how Bradford City perform away from home, whilst still maintaining those astonishing standards at Valley Parade.

Bradford City 1 – 0 Accrington Stanley


Bradford City 1 – 0 Harrogate Town


Prediction:
Away day doubts and razor close wins don’t diminish the fact this has been a fantastic season for Bradford City so far. Full credit must go to Graham Alexander and the team around him for that – but it still feels like improvements must be made as we approach the final third of the 24/25 season. While we may all wish for better results away from home, football results are simply not derived from sentiment. Want as we might for this Bantams team to gallop towards promotion, that away form is looking like a real hindrance.

As was pointed out above, the current sense of momentum (which is admittedly huge) is based largely around a fixture pile up at Valley Parade, as well as a couple of wins in the EFL Trophy that perhaps lacks prestige. With 9 away games still play (compared to 7 at home), it feels like everything hinges on games like the one this Saturday afternoon in Wales.

Newport County are a good home side. They have won more than half their games at Rodney Parade and have averaged more than 1.5 goals per game to boot. They share goals out amongst their team, with no runaway top scorer, and put 6 past MK Dons on home soil back in December courtesy of two hattricks (Bryn Morris and Bobby Kamwa take a bow). That said, they have had a propensity to concede at home as well as away, and there has been a feeling they can be got at. That might have changed with a recent run of just 1 goal conceded in 4, though they have been riding their luck during that run.

So what do we expect to happen?

Well, all of Bradford City’s last 5 games have finished 1-0, and this is another game that has the potential to go the same way. While AFC Wimbledon are the only side to have beaten City by that margin during that period, Newport County look well-equipped to repeat the feat – unless City can conjure some magic from the likes of Alex Pattison and Antoni Sarcevic, or capitalise on errors courtesy of an energetic high press led most effectively by Calum Kavanagh.

The pick will be an optimistic 1-1. That certainly won’t be the worst result in the world, and frankly there are easier looking away days than this coming up that City absolutely must start to win.

Final Score:

Newport County 1 – 1 Bradford City