Match Thread Bradford City v Swindon Saturday December 14 @ 3.00pm

EFL League Two Fixture #19
Saturday 14th December 2024 15:00
Bradford City (11th) vs Swindon Town (22nd)
University of Bradford Stadium (AKA Valley Parade)

Record:
Games Won: 14
Games Drawn: 14
Games Lost: 18

Last 5:
05 Mar 2022: Bradford City 1 – 2 Swindon Town
25 Oct 2022: Bradford City 1 – 1 Swindon Town
18 Apr 2023: Swindon Town 1 – 0 Bradford City
07 Oct 2023: Bradford City 1 – 0 Swindon Town
27 Jan 2024: Swindon Town 2 – 0 Bradford City

Swindon Town:
Swindon Town’s frustrations in the league are perhaps exacerbated by the fact that 4 of their 7 wins this season have come in cup competition. Prior to Ian Holloway’s appointment as manager on October 25th, Swindon Town sat in 22nd place on account of a poor start to the season under previous manager Mark Kennedy. Fast forward about 6 weeks, and Swindon Town still sit in 22nd place, though matters have progressed in other areas. They are now out of the FA Cup after a second round penalty shootout defeat to fellow League Two strugglers Accrington Stanley, have progressed in the EFL Trophy after wins over Tottenham Hotspur U21’s (group stage) and Wycombe Wanderers (knockout stage), have endured a 5-game winless run, but have also recently embarked on a two-game win streak for only the second time this season.

A 3-1 victory over Fleetwood Town represented Swindon’s first league win since way back on the 12th October, when another 3-goal haul was needed to put Cheltenham Town away 3-2. Curiously, both games saw Swindon Town surge to a 3-0 lead before conceding consolations and, in the case of the Fleetwood Town game, almost all 3 points!

Swindon Town’s only other league win came in mid-September courtesy of a 4-0 thrashing of Newport County. Goals, then, have not been Swindon Town’s downfall this season. In fact, Swindon’s 23 goal haul so far this season eclipses that of 9 other sides, including 4th place Crewe Alexandra! Instead it is at the other end of the pitch that Swindon Town have really struggled this season. Shipping 33 goals means Swindon Town have the second-worst defence in League Two and kept them in real contention for snatching the bottom spot away from Derek Adams’ Morecambe.

The nature of a 4-0 thrashing in Swindon Town’s last away match at bottom half Colchester United was labelled ‘absolutely, totally unforgiveable’ by Ian Holloway, and while the Robins were also overrun in a 3-1 defeat at high-flyers MK Dons in early November, that 4-0 hammering stands in stark contrast to back-to-back 2-2 draws against Accrington Stanley (in league and cup), and improved outings in their last 2 games.

Ian Holloway will now want to build on his side’s recent triumphs, but there’s no escaping the fact that Swindon Town have been poor on the road all season. The fact Town sit in 20th place in the ‘Away’ league table is based on just 1 away win. 5 draws from their other 9 away league fixtures shows they can at least be hard to beat, and that is likely on account of the fact that they average more than a goal-a-game away from the County Ground (despite the fact they so rarely win).

Perhaps the shining light of this Swindon Town team is Harry Smith. The 6’5 striker, who signed in the Summer from relegated Sutton United, will be desperate not to have to endure back-to-back demotions from the EFL. He is playing his part, though. 8 league goals in just 12 starts is impressive, and he scored a ‘perfect’ hattrick is his last outing against Fleetwood Town. After not featuring against Wycombe Wanderers in the EFL Trophy, Holloway will be hoping there will be more of the same from a player who is, realistically, their only reliable goalscoring outlet.

Swindon Town 3 – 1 Fleetwood Town


Colchester United 4 – 0 Swindon Town


Bradford City:
The two major parallels between Bradford City and Swindon Town of late are that, like Swindon, City’s cup exploits have papered over some fairly significant cracks in the club’s league form as of late, and that like with Harry Smith, Bradford City are extremely reliant on one particular goalscoring forward: that man, of course, being Andy Cook.

That said, perhaps there is a third similarity in that Bradford City’s last two outings have been a cut above most of the fare served up of late: a 1-1 draw at Crewe Alexandra, in which Bradford City had to play with 10 men for well over half an hour, and a 3-2 victory over Stockport County in the EFL Trophy were both, in their own different ways, fairly impressive outings for Graham Alexander’s men.

Is it too much to hope that Calum Kavanagh can continue his goalscoring form after bagging a brace in the EFL Trophy against higher level opposition? Kavanagh now has 3 goals to his credit this season, but 0 of them in the league, which will be the main focus and priority of all involved at and following the club. Andy Cook added to his already divisional-best tally of 10 league goals, so no concerns there – but the absence of regular goals from other sources has undoubtedly been holding the Bantams back all season.

With the January transfer window approaching, now would be a fantastic time for anyone else to make their mark. Cook and Kavanagh will surely start against Swindon Town, then, but Alex Pattison – having himself scored 1 and assisted 1 in his last 2 games – will be absent through suspension. Centre back Neill Byrne will also be suspended, though with the return from injury of Ciaran Kelly, that doesn’t seem to be such a hammer blow to Alexander’s plans. The onus will likely be on either (or both) of Bobby Pointon or Jamie Walker to get the team ticking going forward, though Pointon in particular has often been best utilized as an impact sub.

Can City find some form going forward? Having not scored more than 1 goal per game in the league since all the way back on October 19, when they beat Gillingham 2-1, even City’s home fans have been starved of excitement lately – and the club have been consistently better at home than away…

Crewe Alexandra 1 – 1 Bradford City


Barrow 1 – 1 Bradford City


Prediction:

While the goals have been flying in at both ends for Swindon Town as of late, Bradford City’s conservative style has led to a succession of narrow 1-0 defeats or 1-1 draws in the league of late. The uninspiring performances that have coincided with those dour scorelines have at least shown signs of improving, albeit slightly, in recent outings, though in truth the 3-2 win in the EFL Trophy looks as anomalous as the 3-1 victory over non-league Aldershot Town in the FA Cup first round. There’s simply nothing from Graham Alexander’s men to suggest City fans will be treated to a similarly high-scoring game this Saturday.

Contrast that with Ian Holloway’s outfit, however, and there is at least a glimmer or hope! Swindon Town have either scored or shipped an astonishing 21 goals in their last 5 league games – more than 4 goals per game on average! They have also treated their fans to 7 goals (again either for or against) in their last 2 cup outings, as well, suggesting it’s not just a league thing with Holloway’s men.

Can they bring some of that excitement to Valley Parade this weekend, or will Graham Alexander’s tactical pragmatism bring the Robins down to their level and ensure another low-scoring affair? It’s truly a tale of two contrasting teams, though on remarkably similar patterns of form.

A lot will depend on how both sides get their key hitmen involved on Saturday. Andy Cook going against one of the worst defences in the division might seem like a frightening prospect for Swindon Town, but then he has struggled to make an impact against an even-worse defence at Morecambe twice already. Harry Smith might fancy his chances after his ‘perfect’ hattrick last weekend, but the game before that all he managed was to head the ball into his own net in a 4-0 mauling at Colchester United. Who knows, then, what either striker will produce? And, in truth, who knows which way this one will go.

Assuming Bradford City can – for once – breach a poorly performing backline with any sort of regularity, we might be treated to a rare game with more than 1 or 2 goals. The pick will be a relatively conservative 2-1 win for Bradford City in a result that prevents City from falling into the bottom half – but still leaves them plenty of work to do to challenge for a top 7 spot.

Final Score:

Bradford City 2 – 1 Swindon Town