21-22 relegation

No it doesn't. I share that view. The key thing when looking at players like Foulds is that they need to be very much backup options. If they're in the team regularly, we're likely to have problems.

 

Foulds would be an acceptable back up for next season, not quite first team quality but probably not going to hinder the budget too much and the reality is at this level we are going to need a few cheap back ups in various positions that are capable of doing a job. The sooner Ridehalgh returns the better he's exactly what we require at full back a steady no nonsense player who gives his all.

 

Looks like they were right about Wood as well, got subbed in their last game and has many games on Orient’s bench. Considering they are worse than us and have the worst record in 2022 it’s not a glowing endorsement.

Foulds and Hendrie are fine as back up, it helps they can play multiple positions as well.

But no chance as starters. Modern Full Backs are key positions on the pitch, after their two strikers Forest Greens next two best players are their full backs, as were Luton’s when they got back to back promotions. It’s absolutely a key position and the ones we have aren’t good enough as starters.

 

what is the average number of points needed to avoid going down?

 

Good guess. We've had 40 seasons of 3 points for a win. Pro-rating all seasons to 46 matches, then one gets the following:

Average points for:
22nd: 46.5
23rd: 43.3
24th: 37.8

Median points for:
22nd: 46.5
23rd: 44.0
24th: 39.2

Highest and lowest total points for:
22nd: 54 / 40
23rd: 51 / 34
24th: 48 / 20

So we had better pick up a minimum of 6 points to cut it very fine, 9 points to be more comfortable, and 12 to be comfortable.

RCB

 

How many for the autos?

 

Bang on. Just watching McLaughlin for Mansfield at LB. Defensively solid, likes driving forward, getting crosses in. Head and shoulders above Foulds. He's the standard we should be aiming for as a minimum

 

All eyes on Oldham for a while.

They lost for the first time, I believe, under Sheridan, to Carlisle of all teams.

But pretty much ALL the teams below us are effectively within touching distance. The biggest gap we have in real terms is 9 points, but Oldham have 2 games in hand. For teams that have played the same number of games, the gap is a mere 6 points.

We are the only team to have picked up 0 points from the last 15, so in effect, EVERYONE has been gaining on us lately.

Squeaky bum time for Bradford City.

 

Good stats does that account for when there's one team that bottoms out like Scunthorpe have does it a make a difference if there's someone that is miles adrift

 

I think 44-46 points will be enough.

Problem tomorrow is, should Oldham win, and we lose (to the league leaders, which is reasonably likely), the gap is 7 points AT BEST, potentially 6.

I never thought I'd be looking at being two wins away from relegation this season, even though all the bodacious claims that we'd not accept mediocrity and be challenging for promotion this season seemed a little naive.

Still.

Oldham might lose and that will bring us another game closer to safety, regardless of our own result!

 

Asking for a friend, are we?

Same as before, prorated to 46 matches per season:

Average points for:
1st: 89.5
2nd: 84.5
3rd: 81.6

Median points for:
1st: 87.0
2nd: 84.0
3rd: 81.0

Highest and lowest total points for:
1st: 102 / 82
2nd: 97 / 79
3rd: 91 / 75

Given the best we can do now is 73, I don't think we need to worry about this end of the table...though the eternal optimist would say that we still have a chance at the playoffs. There's just the slight problem of having to win about 10 of our last 11 matches...

A really bad side will affect the average much more than the median, so that latter number might be a better one to look at than the former. There's not all that much difference though in the two as it concerns us.

RCB

 

Rochdale vs Barrow and Scunthorpe vs Colchester are the only games today between teams below us. Unless Scunthorpe can pull off the great escape ideal results for us are probably a win for Rochdale and Scunthorpe. Will be interesting to see how Oldham get on against Swindon after their loss last week and Swindon looked like a side who might be struggling with the play off race.

 

A tram that goes to the top of the league and wins aint going down

 

Is that one of Confuscious finest?

 

I knew that Tram in the Industrial museum would make a come back one day!

 

So who do you want in the play offs?

 

Scunthorpe

 

Us of course!