27 potential outcomes

Boltons end to the season could realistically be games against Bradford, Luton, Bradford, Bradford and then maybe another Luton fixture at Wembley.

I think if Luton manage a win on Saturday and somehow get in, then they will be the team that ends up promoted. And the squad have recent Wembley success to bring into the squad. Momentum is huge in the play offs and all the others are limping their way into them, but if Luton win it would be unbeaten in 11 with 8 wins in there. Nobody is coming close to that winning feeling from the rest of the PO teams.

 

And then if us and Bolton stay in league one, they could play us again in the first two games.

 

Luton are on some form but they have only won 3 of the last 10 away games, Rotherham, Wimbledon and Wycombe.. drawn 3 against Vale, Donny and Mansfield and lost the other 4... I think Bolton will beat them.

 

I reckon a draw with us winning and sneaking into 4th

 

Same bud if we miss out so be it if we fail in the playoffs so be it ............. i would be gutted but not on the levels i have been and the difference to last season was the worse case outcome last season was another season of shite away followings a load of crap games ...............we fail this season have plenty of decent games to look forward a fair few derby games thrown in and plenty of 20k plus crowds down at VP again.

Whatever the outcome we have established ourselves very quickly as a solid league one club and we would have been happy with that after the drama of the Fleetwood game

 

The change has been dramatic since i would say the 3-0 drubbing at Notts C at least we have become solid we have the fanbase back on side ,i mean you go back a year and half a go and it was a different tale folk not wanting to go, threats of protests, people turning up out of loyalty now its changed.

Whatever happens between now and the next few weeks at least we can say that the future is a lot brighter for the first time in years

 

I was scared to post this but that's exactly how I'm approaching this weekend. I'll also be at least a few hundred quid on tickets and travel but I can't actually think of anything I'd rather spend my money on than a trip to Wembley.

 

And they played at our poorest spell i can recall we missed a few chances and let Casey Palmer the freedom to do what he wants...............maybe them like Plymouth have hit good form due to the shackles being off lets see what happens when the pressure is on there shoulders again.

Bolton will get a result im sure of it

 

Btw if anyone thinks we will miss

Exeter win
Luton win
Stevenage win

Pays 14/1

 

Already 'insured' myself.

 

I hope you're right but I still think Luton are capable of getting a result. Let's hope we get the job done ourselves.

 

Me too, it's the only slight positive I'd be able to take from missing out. Never normally bet either!

 

Can never back against my own team, just feels wrong.

 

same here....that's why I'm languishing mid table in the Prediction League

 

I never even bet on City really, usually an acca rule i made up for myself to skip City bets.

Think the only time i did, on the way down to Wembley for Northampton PO final there was a special on one of the apps, City 3-1, City to score first, Hanson and Wells to score anytime was 50/1 or something mental. I whacked a tenner on it and when the Wells goal went in, i literally started cheering for Northampton to score for about an hour.

 

Here’s the scenario that Bolton will not want.
Stockport win both their games and finish 3rd
Bolton lose to Luton and finish 4th
We lose at Exeter, finish 6th with Luton 5th
Stevenage draw with Wigan and finish 7th

will mean we get a nice Saturday home game at 3pm and Bolton would be away in Luton at 8pm.

if I were Bolton I’d we giving 100% on Saturday to stop Luton getting in.

 

Mark Bowyer said that it is myth. The stats say you’re more likely to be promoted if you are 3/4th.

 

Could well be, that doesn't mean the team finishing in 3rd or 4th aren't the form teams. Id wager that teams in the playoff either in form or hitting form win more than teams out of form

 

Well the case of Bradford City’s play off history, we’ve only ever succeeded from the bottom play off position when on a run of form sneaking in at the last minute.
For that reason I make Luton favourites to go up if they make it.

 

Finishing Position Number of Play‑off Winners (since 04/05)
3rd place - 8 winners
4th place - 6 winners
5th place - 4 winners
6th place - 3 winners

A 6th place finish hasn't seen a winner since Millwall in 16/17. Weirdly, 5th place had the first two winners and then didn't see a play off winner finish in 5th until Sunderland did it in 2022 and then Oxford in 2024. It's been way more beneficial to be 3rd or 4th since L1 became a thing.

I think it's more a case of the team with momentum tends to get far which is a slightly different point. Last season, Charlton were the only team sat in the play offs with a month to go to win 4 of their last 5, and then Leyton Orient won their last 5 on the spin to claim 6th, both got to Wembley. Season before, Bolton were the only play off team to be unbeaten in their last 6, Oxford were the only team to win 4 of their last 6, both got to Wembley. Season before that Sheff Weds were 3rd and ended up promoted, they finished nearly 20 points better off than the team in 6th. There weren't really any form teams other than Sheff in that play offs and they made the jump.

But what it says is in recent times, the team with the most wins closing out April into May tends to get to the final and usually the side with wins team entering them has won them. If Luton get in, they are the team on a role wins wise and it's tough to look past them given us, Bolton and Stockport are so up and down lately.