Levelling Up

I've been thinking about the Ashby loan in particular as it's such a quality signing that it's hard not to notice something really cool (and special) happening as a by product of our success.

Yes, we have a top manager that has been able to get the best out of an average L1 side. (I'd argue that despite having quality players like Power & Pointon, without GA we'd be fighting the drop alongside the other promoted teams).
Yes, we have amazing fans, stadium, and atmosphere.
Yes, we play an aggressive, attacking style of football.

Which are all things that work to our advantage when trying to persuade players to come to BD8.

You could argue we don't have the big money so that possibly evens things out... "we can't pay what 'X' are offering but we can give you... ".

However, those factors are mostly secondary, because when you zoom in closer, it's clear to see a pattern that we instinctively already know to be true, which is, when it comes down to it... players, like any of us in every walk of life... want to be at the highest possible level with the greatest chance of success.

And we can actually look at these 3 loans (Sibley, White, Ashby - and Wheatley when he joins) as both measure of this, and proof of our increased stature/allure.

You can literally split every league into two sections - top and bottom, so in that sense, the EFL has 6 tiers.

The past few seasons stuck in L2, we've obviously been down in tiers 5 & 6 which is why the loans (and signings) we've made have been hit and miss, with most of them being abject failures over the 6 years we were down there.

If you're a Premier League team, you want your top talent to be tested at the highest possible level, the player too... so the youngsters with the biggest reputation who are ripping it up at U23/21/19 level... are often snapped up by top-end Championship teams (tier 1).

The next best prospects go to tier 2 and so on.

The higher the tier, the more proven the player is... even if they're just kids.

Because, when you think about all the loans we had, and the ones that generally go to L2... they're mostly straight out of academies and playing 'mens football' for the first time.

It doesn't matter how good a player looks in youth football, the step up to competing against seasoned professionals playing for their livelihoods, is a completely different ball game altogether.

That's why for every Jack Shepperd or Scott Banks you uncover, you first have to go through Joe O'Shaughnessy, Thierry Nevers, Chisom Afoka, Rayhaan Tulloch, and Oliver Sanderson to find them.

And it's interesting when you look at the previous clubs of good players, you can often see the climb and each 'step up' they've taken.

I think we wanted Adaramola back after last year, but he (or his club) chose Orient because they made the L1 playoffs and it no doubt was seen as an extra level above City back in August (tier 3 vs. tier 4).

Now, all the loans we're recruiting have plenty of successful history, so we're already getting better quality players than we've had the past few years, but they're also proven and have plenty of data that we can analyse to see if they fit well into our system and work ethic.

And because of our unbelievable league position, we're now considered tier 3 (L1 pushing for promotion to the Championship), which is why all our loans have good experience,

None of them would have joined us in L2, and I doubt Sibley (promoted from L1 with Derby & 80+ games in the Championship) or Ashby join us if we're in the bottom half of L1.

Wheatley is further evidence of this as he joined Northampton at the start of the season, but now Man Utd have recalled him to loan to us because a promotion battle in front of 20k fans every other week, will do more for his growth than staying at Sixfields.

That's not being disrespectful to anyone as the levels and tiers are fluid and dynamic. Not long ago, we were potentially tier 6, now we're tier 3 while the Cobblers are tier 4 as things stand.

The point is, better players are available to us now, and they're choosing us over most teams in L1 & L2 (and potentially some Championship teams also as I believe Ashby or Newcastle rejected the chance for him to join Sheff Utd).

Obviously, the challenge now is to stay there and look to climb higher. However, as this window progresses, I'm growing more and more confident that our promotion bid is a genuine one.

TBH, I've felt all season barring a handful of outstanding performances, that GA squeezes more out of our squad than they're capable of producing. I think he's such a good manager that we're over-achieving and out-performing our level.

But now with the signings so far, each one is an upgrade.

You might argue Cook is a legendary goal scorer while Wheatley has a poor return in comparison... and as I also see Cook as club legend, I'm not gonna try to argue against him.

That said, I've seen Wheatley play and I think he's better suited to our formation and pressing game. He runs all match, he's dynamic and interchangeable, while he's also got pace and power so he's a handful.

I remember the Northampton game, which we should have easily won. They didn't have too many chances that day but their biggest opportunity came after Wheatley ran down the right flank, skinned Touray, then played a wicked ball across the 6-yard box that would have been a tap in, had anyone bothered to make a run.

If he does that for us, Pointon gets on the end of it and Wheatley has a goal involvement and assist to his name... but at Northampton, it's a zero.

So, I wouldn't get too carried away with the stats. The main thing is, they've all had proven experience before now. Even though White didn't get much game time for Orient this season, he played a lot for MK last year and did well...

Which means, unlike the past few years, we know what to expect from loan players before they even sign.

All in all, it's really positive and it definitely feels like we've levelled up this past 12 months.

Not many of us envisioned us in the top half this season and I think we've been secretly waiting for the bubble to burst, but when we strengthen like we are doing, we're turning ourselves into a stronger team, so it's no longer hard to believe we might do even better.

 

Thank you.

 

Rupp has definitely invested more money and been good to his word since he came out and declared his commitment to the club.

However, I believe we're in the bottom half for budgets in L1 and I heard a rumour that Salford outbid us when signing Ryan Graydon recently.

We're not scraping the barrel and we're working within our means which we all want but if a player is financially motivated or a club are asking for too much, then we won't always win the battle or get the player we preferred.

But because we're higher now, we have more quality options available and most of them, will now be choosing us over most teams in L1 & L2.

This means, if we do it right - and I have confidence in GA & the recruitment team, then it allows us to close the gap much faster than we hoped. And on a moderate budget.

So, whether or not we get promoted this year... at the end of the season with another transfer cycle like this where we're viewed as a preferred destination since we'll be one of the favourites, then it makes the transition to becoming a top L1 team much easier and faster.

Which is no 'given' btw because most teams that go up from L2 either struggle or go back down.

I was worried it might take us a while to do that, especially when you see how much money the top half of L1 spend. So, if we can close that gap in one season and without spending a fortune, then it's like a fast-track back to the good old days.

And it is that almost visual process of levelling up that we've done since this time last year really... that I find fascinating... it's literally visible to our eyes.

 

That wasn't quite the point I was trying to make, although there is obviously an element of that at play.

Success didn't breed success for Port Vale, Doncaster, or Wimbledon (who are sinking). Nor did it breed success for the likes of Crawley, Gillingham, Cheltenham, Crewe and all the other teams that go up from L2 and soon fall back down.

Obviously, our success has helped us some. And the other factors like stadium, supporters, manager, and atmosphere etc. All contribute towards the overall outcome.

We've made it look easy in some respect because we're flying high, but that's largely down to GA. I believe the current squad is mid-table on paper—in fact, I reckon many managers would struggle to even keep us up.

It's down to GA and the recruitment team who have assembled a squad that might not be top-half in terms of raw individual talent, but thanks to the specific attributes they sought—and GA inspiring them to over-achieve—we are pushing near the top.

My point about the loans (Ashby/Wheatley) was that each league effectively has two tiers (or mini leagues), and to progress, you need to climb each one.

As you go up through these 'invisible' tiers, better players become available to you. It sounds obvious, but because the tiers aren't official, it's not something I've ever thought about personally.

I bet Doncaster or Port Vale don't have the same options available to them as we do now. I'm pretty certain that Ashby wouldn't have considered a move to any bottom half club... yet it's the same division and technically the same level.

The Ethan Wheatley move (if confirmed) proves this perfectly. Northampton is a decent level, but Man Utd are recalling him because a promotion push with us is now viewed as a 'tier above' a survival scrap with them.

If they're recalling him, you can be certain Man Utd wouldn't let him join anyone else near the bottom.

There could be other factors—he might want to be up North or they're playing him in the wrong system—but this isn't an isolated case. It just opened my eyes to a different perspective.

That is why I got a little excited. We've essentially jumped up a tier in the same season, and even though our squad isn't as strong as most top 10 teams... the fact that we can now attract better quality players means we can quickly close the gap.

Having seen these signings though and knowing how GA can overachieve... I'm fairly excited about the prospect of promotion to the Championship. I haven't let myself believe it until now as I've been waiting for the 'drop off', but I'm actually thinking we have a good chance now.

 

Thanks